mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ride it folks He grasping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 APX just upgraded headlines. Majority of the northern lower peninsula is under a blizzard warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Man..what a letdown. Nothing ever goes our way anymore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Curious to see euro in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had This. Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imneversatisfied Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, TravisWx said: APX just upgraded headlines. Majority of the lower peninsula is under a blizzard warning. Here it is! I cant remember the last time we were under one... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Wonder if DTX will upgrade. Winds over 50 still should be more then enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Gonna be a pretty stellar LE event for SW Michigan any way you slice it. I can’t remember the last comparable event they’ve had November? Gonna be hard to top that around here atleast.. Initially atleast the winds may prevent better banding. 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: This. Albeit the November LES event was the most impressive I recall in recent times (over a foot of pure LES), this system will only enhance totals, but it’ll be interesting to measure. Think that might be a problem with 50mph gusts. Yeah such strong winds may disrupt the bands. I think our best window is Sat afternoon/Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Wonder if DTX will upgrade. Winds over 50 still should be more then enough I'm guessing no, if their reasoning is similar to GRR: We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This storm as two significant aspects, the unusably strong winds during a snow storm and the heavy snowfall, more enhanced lake effect snowfall as the system moves away from the area. We issued the Blizzard warning over our western counties for the combination of heavy lake effect snow and strong winds. We went only with a Winter Storm warning over the eastern counties since the snowfall was less during the time of high winds, meaning it seems questionable that we`d get the visibilities to stay below 1/4 mile for 3 consecutive hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct? You're correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, TravisWx said: APX just upgraded headlines. Majority of the lower peninsula is under a blizzard warning. More like half. GRR must be in touch with @Harry We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds during a snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct? It’s the only legitimate model when times are rough 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: I’ve never seen so much srefs talk! I don’t think I’ve considered them as legitimate guidance for >5 years. My understanding is what you see on the 15z srefs is based on the 12z NAM init which is why there can be a large disconnect between the 15z srefs and the 18z NAM. Is my understanding correct? SREFS been a thing around here as long as I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Can someone explain to us non-winter weather weenies what the deal is with this storm? Not enough moisture to produce large accumulations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: More like half. GRR must be in touch with @Harry We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds during a snow storm That entire AFD made me think WDM has been up too long. The grammar was horrendous. Normally he does a very good job. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 IWX on the other hand is considering upgrading more counties to a Blizzard Warning later if the higher winds verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX on the other hand is considering upgrading more counties to a Blizzard Warning later if the higher winds verify I wouldn't be surprised. The lake effect is going to be reaching far inland. Plus, ground blizzard conditions should occur if winds do indeed verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Crazy to see the latest trends on the models, I'd throw up Blizzard Warnings for all of IWX at this point and probably all the way over to Jackson and possibly even Ann Arbor. I think you almost have to be over dramatic here considering the importance of this time of year during travel and the fact that this storm is a combo of a high end tropical storm wind with snow. For NW Ohio at the moment it seems like a safe call to go with 5-8" for the counties west of I-75 and 3-5" for everywhere to the east. This thing absolutely gets ripping late Thursday and by early Friday morning the entire region is shut down probably until Sunday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Nice P&C , 2'+ Synoptic/LES' definitely attainable probably no way to fully measure it. Still snowing though Sunday albeit much lighter. Quote Detailed Forecast Tonight A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a temperature rising to around 21 by 3am. Light southeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Thursday Snow showers, mainly after 4pm. High near 29. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 19. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 4 inches. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 8am. High near 26. Windy, with a west wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 10 inches. Friday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 12. Windy, with a west wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of around 6 inches. Saturday Snow. Widespread blowing snow, mainly before noon. High near 15. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Saturday Night Snow showers. Low around 12. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Christmas Day Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 17. Sunday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: More like half. GRR must be in touch with @Harry We have issued a Blizzard Warning for our western 2 rows of counties and Winter Storm Warning for the eastern counties. This storm as two significant aspects, the unusable strong winds during a snow storm Yeah I meant to type northern lower peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Cheyenne just dropped 40 degrees in one hour. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metallica470 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Cheyenne just dropped 40 degrees in one hour. According to the NWS twitter page it was 40 degrees in 30 minutes! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Can someone explain to us non-winter weather weenies what the deal is with this storm? Not enough moisture to produce large accumulations? While the lack of a solid Gulf connection is an issue, the bigger issue has been the multi-day trend towards a weaker/delayed amping/further east track to the storm system as it moves through much of the sub-forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Cheyenne just dropped 40 degrees in one hour. 10 MB as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 It's gotta be the first time in awhile that blizzard warning wording said 1-2 feet for the northern lower, excluding lake effect. 1400 days since last blizzard warning also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 First and final call of 6.4” and an upgrade to a blizzard warning at some point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Temps are going to be around 10 when the snow starts falling here tonight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Getting excited for tomorrow night. Going to be an insane temperature drop as the rain quickly turns to snow with blizzard conditions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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