Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2

[MidwestChaser]

[mimillman]

GFS is playing catch up and lowering totals outside of WAA

[King James]

5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

GFS is playing catch up and lowering totals outside of WAA

I think Chicago crew is swinging the pendulum too far the other way now. Local Mets still have decent storm totals for Chicago. Nothing like originally advertised but still a decent snowfall is being forecast as of this morning. 3-7 seems to be the spread 

[tuanis]

1 minute ago, King James said:

I think Chicago crew is swinging the pendulum too far the other way now. Local Mets still have decent storm totals for Chicago. Nothing like originally advertised but still a decent snowfall is being forecast as of this morning. 3-7 seems to be the spread 

I'm not seeing where those 7" totals will come from. Looks like a ~6 hour window of snowfall tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Maybe we'll see inch an hour rates for a bit, but I doubt it stacks up to anything more than 4".

[mimillman]

Just now, tuanis said:

I'm not seeing where those 7" totals will come from. Looks like a ~6 hour window of snowfall tomorrow afternoon into the early evening. Maybe we'll see inch an hour rates for a bit, but I doubt it stacks up to anything more than 4".

Agree

[A-L-E-K]

good chunk of hi-res guidance is a DAB, emphasis on the AB

[mimillman]

5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

good chunk of hi-res guidance is a DAB, emphasis on the AB

 

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Call looking $$$

[Chambana]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

good chunk of hi-res guidance is a DAB, emphasis on the AB

Lowering total for a fourth time to DAB. 

[Chicago WX]

17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

good chunk of hi-res guidance is a DAB, emphasis on the AB

Very paltry. Think T-1" may be a better call at this point. I can see this being just 3-4 hours of arctic sand that blows around into corners.  I’d give my odds of a white Christmas at 30% right now. 

[Nelson]

SREF or die

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

The 12Z gfs was definitely a run for people east of the lakes, absolutely dumps snow on Michigan

[josh_4184]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

So jealous. Upload some vidz plz. Definitly a rare kinda storm for them up there, or anywhere really.

Will def, very rare even for up here def a generational type event I wasn't around for the 78 blizzard should be similar. Hopefully I don't lose internet so I can post updates. I have the generator. Wish I still had my snowmobiles. 

[mimillman]

8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Very paltry. Think T-1" may be a better call at this point. I can see this being just 3-4 hours of arctic sand that blows around into corners.  I’d give my odds of a white Christmas at 30% right now. 

Good news is we won’t need to deal with melting when it torches next week 

[Powerball]

8 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

The 12Z gfs was definitely a run for people east of the lakes, absolutely dumps snow on Michigan

For SW and SC Michigan, yes.

It looks less impressive for the northern part of the state, and the areas closer to Detroit still look as "meh" as they have been amount-wise

[Stevo6899]

I'm still surprised with the lack of backend/def snows once this thing bombs out. Perhaps as already stated, maybe it's the energy that just went through here in florida last night that is shutting off the gom feed into it? Or the fact that the Arctic air behind it is drying things out a bit in the def bands.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'm still surprised with the lack of backend/def snows once this thing bombs out. Perhaps as already stated, maybe it's the energy that just went through here in florida last night that is shutting off the gom feed into it? Or the fact that the Arctic air behind it is drying things out a bit in the def bands.

That's because the models have trended in the direction of not deepening the storm as much.

Which that makes sense with the trough not being as sharp and not digging as much.

[Solidsting]

With current GFS, the difference of mb with 4-5 inches and 10 is 10 miles. Over in Ypsilanti look like 10 but go down the road a tad half that. Going to be fun as all hell can’t wait to go outside. Probably not driving but I’ll go full Eskimo


.

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

That's because the models have trended in the direction of not deepening the storm as much.

Which that makes sense with the trough not being as sharp and not digging as much.

Still 1009 to 975, that's pretty impressive. I've seen better def band snows with 995 lows.

[Chicago WX]

LOT just issued a Winter Storm Warning for the CWA.  Thought they'd go WWA, alas...

EDIT: blizzard warning for Porter County

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow producing occasional white out
  conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 50 mph expected. Wind chill values of
  25 to 35 below zero expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...From noon Thursday to 6 AM CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Falling or blowing snow may result in white out
  conditions with zero visibility at times, making travel
  extremely difficult. Power outages will also be possible as a
  result of strong wind gusts to 50 mph. Roads will likely quickly
  become ice covered as temperatures rapidly fall Thursday
  afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as 25
  to 35 below zero are likely Thursday night through Friday night.
  Wind chills of this magnitude can cause frostbite on exposed
  skin in as little as 20 minutes.

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, Chicago WX said:

LOT just issued a Winter Storm Warning for the CWA. Thought they'd go WWA, alas...

Winter storm warning for 2-5".... 

[Chicago Storm]

Winter storm warning for 2-5".... 

It’s more for their thinking on the snow/wind combo.

They went away from snowfall total based headlines to impact based headlines a few years ago.

[dmc76]

17 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'm still surprised with the lack of backend/def snows once this thing bombs out. Perhaps as already stated, maybe it's the energy that just went through here in florida last night that is shutting off the gom feed into it? Or the fact that the Arctic air behind it is drying things out a bit in the def bands.

It deepens too late. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

It’s more for their thinking on the snow/wind combo.

They went away from snow total based headlines to impact based headlines a few years ago.


.

I mean, I totally understand the thought process. Just my bitterness at another wasted potential seeping through. 

[Chicago WX]

And no doubt the timing of holiday travel influenced their decision. I get that part.

[Stevo6899]

3 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

It deepens too late. 

I'm not talking about def snows in our area, im talking the storm overall and its depiction. Perhaps the location of its deepening as far north is why. Just was curious...

[ChiTownSnow]

14 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

It deepens too late. 

That and lack of moisture feed, till it tries to tap Atlantic moisture well NE of here

[Hoosier]

GFS goes absolute nuke mode starting around 00z Fri.  Hi-res guidance delays that.

Don't expect the world around Chicago, but it may be a nowcasty type of event.  Still a way to get 6" or even more in the city (esp downtown) IF things break right.

[hardypalmguy]

32 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'm still surprised with the lack of backend/def snows once this thing bombs out. Perhaps as already stated, maybe it's the energy that just went through here in florida last night that is shutting off the gom feed into it? Or the fact that the Arctic air behind it is drying things out a bit in the def bands.

florida stole your moisture.

[ChiTownSnow]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

GFS goes absolute nuke mode starting around 00z Fri.  Hi-res guidance delays that.

Don't expect the world around Chicago, but it may be a nowcasty type of event.  Still a way to get 6" or even more in the city (esp downtown) IF things break right.

I don't by it deepening that quickly 

[hawkeye_wx]

36 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'm still surprised with the lack of backend/def snows once this thing bombs out. Perhaps as already stated, maybe it's the energy that just went through here in florida last night that is shutting off the gom feed into it? Or the fact that the Arctic air behind it is drying things out a bit in the def bands.

The lack of a deep moisture feed must have something to do with it.  Models show the deep moisture surging up the east coast and into southeastern Canada... pretty far away from Michigan.

I remember GHD 1 well.  That storm had a big ball of deep gulf moisture on top of the low as it ejected toward the lakes.  That's what we need.