Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Given we’ve seen this trend for over a day now and we continue to approach the event start, would have liked to have seen some reversal for the 0z suite, after the 18z suite stopped the bleeding. Instead we got the opposite, and things have continued to trend worse. Game, set & match. Was talking about the Euro qpf specifically. I'll take the over on 1.7" at ORD, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, mimillman said: We will have our time, don’t worry. Does it always have to be February, though? I’d like our time to be December one of these seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sciascia said: Does it always have to be February, though? I’d like our time to be December one of these seasons. Guess we'll give it another shot next Dec lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 Was talking about the Euro qpf specifically. I'll take the over on 1.7" at ORD, btw.Ah, alright.Can still sort of say the same though. The trend has been on the Euro as well QPF wise the past several runs. Shunt east of the better deformation precip, and a drying trend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 FWIW the EPS is coming in west of the OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 00z Euro snow map is pretty similar to the 03z RAP snow map, valid 6z Friday. That right there lets you know that it's wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph. Wed-Sat Most of the snow will be tomorrow into tomorrow night with east winds, but then the winds kick in out of the NW Thurs-Sat with light snows, and ground blizzard conditions at times. I'd imagine there could be near hurricane force winds along the eastern shores of Lake Michigan as the low bombs out over Lower MI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Well it was fun for a while…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Early look at 6z NAM... I don't think it will come in worse. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 06z NAM is definitely a bit worse, certainly drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 That was a very very odd run to say the least, it was also late, wonder if it had some issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Wonder if there’s a chance it’s being over done on having the low starting out as fast. Which would have it a tick south. Having it more west on Friday than what’s being shown right now on some models. Thinking at least 2” for the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 25 minutes ago, Powerball said: 06z NAM is definitely a bit worse, certainly drier. Was actually snowier in some areas, especially in WI. Kind of cancels out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Call looking $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Call looking $$$ little did we know we'd count that as a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 No respect 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 hours ago, Baum said: oddly, i still think this will be a memorable event and NWS offices will have been justified in the early lead time watches. this argument was not helped overnight, i see. Good news is they can run with a WWA and most folks won't think much about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 06z GFS was pretty brutal (in a good way) across SW and Central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: 06z GFS was pretty brutal (in a good way) across SW and Central MI. It atleast made a bit more sense with upper level features and slp sliding up from near Detroit to the thumb etc.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Harry said: It atleast made a bit more sense with upper level features and slp sliding up from near Detroit to the thumb etc.. Will be interesting to see if the other global models (NAM may never get a clue) start to catch on to a 06z GFS solution by the 12z runs. Would need blizzard warnings across all of Lower MI for that, easily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 -8F and clouding over. 4-7” in the grid today. Let’s see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too. Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: -8F and clouding over. 4-7” in the grid today. Let’s see what happens. What's your seasonal total so far? Some years the snows find you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too. Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6". Lansing up to traverse looking good for a foot plus and a blizzard. Rare blizzard conditions. I'd imagine dtw will be closed for a few hours due to the wind. I'd hate to be traveling for the holiday, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, Powerball said: Will be interesting to see if the other global models (NAM may never get a clue) start to catch on to a 06z GFS solution by the 12z runs. Would need blizzard warnings across all of Lower MI for that, easily. It wouldn't be the first time in the past ten years or so. If that SLP track etc ( upper level features ) hangs on watch totals go up all the way back to Chicago in future model runs. 972mb and dropping on the thumb I'll take. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Lansing up to traverse looking good for a foot plus and a blizzard. Rare blizzard conditions. I'd imagine dtw will be closed for a few hours due to the wind. I'd hate to be traveling for the holiday, yikes. It would be 12+ from just south of the border on north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Kind of reminds me of a high-end severe threat in the plains that gets ruined by a under-modelled crashing cold front. We are all riding the wave the cycle will continue! That’s when all the weather family comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, Powerball said: BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too. Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6". I seem that before I went to work I took a screenshot because it’s not often they do that. Did some reading on 55-60 knot wind or more maybe mixing down too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Well at least the pattern looks great after this …oh wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Call looking $$$ Defo too high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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