pondo1000 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Man, the entertainment value of the storm thread is priceless. Watching weenies' emotions ebb and flow with each model run, especially the Chicago posters. This is still going to be a major-impact storm, whether you get three or nine. I've been kicked back over here in FWAland absolutely satisfied with my incoming 3" and 50 mph gusts. I'm looking forward to sitting in front of the picture window and enjoying the blizzard. Will be a white Christmas for almost all in the subforum, and after the past several Decembers, what's to be disappointed about? I’d give anything for 3” & 50 mph winds!!! I’m easy! Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2022 Author Share Posted December 20, 2022 57 minutes ago, Harry said: More then likely outcome but just looking at that and the placement of other features ( 500mb/700mb etc I have a difficult time buying that track that far north? Via the placement of the other features I would expect to see the slp down towards the se part of the state! Someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong? Thanks! It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, Harry said: ???? Is that post you quoted in another thread? I went to look for it in this thread and natta?. **Edit*** I found it.. And yeah you are right I am not a fan of the wind especially not with the kind of cold involved. I enjoy being out in it and the wind makes it hard to do I'm the opposite. Wanna be hunkered down inside getting just blasted. Snow caked to window screens making it even more "in my face". Haven't seen that since at least 11-11-95 in NMI. I get the cold part since we've become so accustomed to endless autumn this could real feel even worse. Tail end of PV Bliz was frigid too, but it had been cold for almost a month by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: I'm the opposite. Wanna be hunkered down inside getting just blasted. Snow caked to window screens making it even more "in my face". Haven't seen that since at least 11-11-95 in NMI. I get the cold part since we've become so accustomed to endless autumn this could real feel even worse. Tail end of PV Bliz was frigid too, but it had been cold for almost a month by then. The cold at the end of the polar vortex snowstorm was simply surreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Gonna reduce that original 4-6" call to 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Just now, michsnowfreak said: The cold at the end of the polar vortex snowstorm was simply surreal. Man I'll always remember that jan 5 polar vortex storm. It's the only storm I can remember getting 8-12 from a progressive/positively tilted storm. The roads were ice/snow-packed for weeks after due to the frigid cold from the vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Didn't even realize a storm was in the forecast until I went to town today. The store was so crowded, at first I thought it was just holiday shopping but quickly figured out different. Guess 2+ feet is possible by Saturday ish and with 15" of powder otg already, this should be fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z Euro actually a tick east after Hour 60 as the low crosses northwestern Ohio; leads to a small shaving of northern IL QPF. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z Euro actually a tick east after Hour 60 as the low crosses northwestern Ohio; leads to a small shaving of northern IL QPF.1-4, snow and blowing snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Where does 18z euro take the low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: 18z Euro actually a tick east after Hour 60 as the low crosses northwestern Ohio; leads to a small shaving of northern IL QPF. Dtw will skip watches and issue warnings after 5 inches is already on the ground. They know people don't bother listening to them anyways. Budget cuts, nobody will prob be there to issue the warnings anyways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, ChiTownSnow said: They must have already took this down. I love how they kept the little sliver of 6-8 for Chicago. Alex bail out zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 @tim123 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: @tim123 That's the best model run i've seen all day, lol. I guess it's better it's at the end of the day vs. the beginning... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartan77 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 MARINE... Issued at 305 PM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 Not much thinking has changed in terms of the storm and it associated marine impacts. There is an increased risk for freezing spray and with waves now forecast to approach 20 ft...we will need to assess the erosion risk. Confidence continues to grow on the storm force wind risk with still a small potential for hurricane force wind gusts. Would be pretty amazing to see the effects of the waves and freezing spray on the piers along the western Michigan shoreline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorePunch Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 18z Euro is a beautiful hit for Detroit and points north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 For those in NW Ohio and SE Michigan, the 18Z Euro is the answer to your prayers. Thet's the track that this storm needs to take for all of Michigan to cash in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: @tim123 We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: @tim123 Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 59 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Gonna reduce that original 4-6" call to 2-4". actually ,not allowed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums. it would only be fitting to happen to Alek's rig in 5" of snow and a spot on call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 That's all quite interesting about 1-26-78 but the actual storm track was closer to Sarnia-Port Huron and up Lake Huron, I was actually in a weather office drawing up a map at 0800h and still have the map. There was a pressure of 955 mb at Sarnia and at one point maybe around 09-10h London ON had hurricane force southerly winds that were wrap-around arctic air. This won't quite get that wrapped up anywhere. I realize the technology has improved but the 24h prog position of that storm was over western Lake Ontario (it came up from around central AL). We were expecting a snowstorm in Toronto and got one from the wrap-around instead of northeast winds, so the public were not that aware of a forecast bust. I think it probably came as more of a shock further west, the intensity was quite unforeseen in southwestern ON. Those winds knocked down several large hydro-electric towers in that region. You don't often see arctic air blowing from the south in that part of the world. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums. I like that track over Lake Erie I’m in my upper 20s and been wanting something memorable like this. That’s insane 5 to 6 did that. I appreciate those insights! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: It has a lot to do with a wave that rounds the trough and amplifies while in the Plains, with the effects carrying through the Midwest and into the Great Lakes. This leads to the elongated SLP it has across those areas as well, and the further north look as well...Before the whole thing finally takes off across Michigan/Ontario. Thanks! Hoping that part is wrong as I think it is also keeping snowfall amounts down a bit as well from there to here vs further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 26 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: We don't have the Fujiwara effects of '78 in this case, so if we can indeed keep this track nudged east across Lk Erie this could certainly treat SEMI better than that did. To all the down-players of less SN total = storm cancel. Keep in mind that '78 did this in Mansfield OH on just 5-6" of new accums. Was there already a decent snowpack in place ahead of 1978? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The December and January prior to the Blizzard of 78 was mild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: Was there already a decent snowpack in place ahead of 1978? I was in Cincinnati. We'd had a big snow about a week before but most of it had melted by the time the blizzard hit.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Powerball said: Was there already a decent snowpack in place ahead of 1978? Per the nowdata for here there was 7 on the ground when that hit. Topped out at 30" when the blizzard finished. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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