Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2

[Chicago Storm]

[SolidIcewx]

Love tradition I was wondering when

[Chicago Storm]

34 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

I suppose the biggest question now is, for those more knowledgeable, is this looking like a believable final track or do more shifts appear in the cards? Between snow coming in above expectations in the Pacific NW & recent model trends favoring east shifts, feels like no one knows what's happening (or, more accurately, I have no clue what's happening).

Likely to see additional shifting. The 18z NAM is continuing the SE trend, for example. (Edit: Not so much in the end).

[Lurkess]

16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

At almost the exact same time Paducah issued Winter Storm Watch and a Windchill Warning.  Excellent timing! 

[Kaner88]

It would only be fitting that this storm ends up plowing northwest again, led by the 18z ICON or something

[MidwestChaser]

25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

[sbnwx85]

5 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

It would only be fitting that this storm ends up plowing northwest again, led by the 18z ICON or something

I'm starting to come around to the ICON. 

[Michigander]

GRR NWS is suggesting 15-20 to 1 ratios?
 

Quote

Ensemble mean snowfalls from the Canadian and ECMWF for South Haven
are now 12 to 20 inches...and that is with a 10 to 1 ratio. Actual
ratios for much of the storm will likely be 15-20 to 1.

 

[Malacka11]

4 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

I'm starting to come around to the ICON. 

Holy shit 

[Chicago WX]

18z NAM was better. I mean, it’s got to start somewhere. 

[sbnwx85]

3 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Holy shit 

Big, if true. 

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, Michigander said:

GRR NWS is suggesting 15-20 to 1 ratios?
 

 

 

Wonder if they are taking into.account the winds which could cut into.that? 

[Kaner88]

Impressive Heavy Freezing Spray Watch for Lake Michigan, usually don't see freezing spray stuff outside of Alaska in my experience.

Quote

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Storm Watch, west winds 30 to 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots and waves 11 to 16 feet possible. For the Heavy Freezing Spray Watch, heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater possible, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...Michigan City IN to St Joseph MI.

* WHEN...For the Storm Watch, from late Thursday night through late Friday night. For the Heavy Freezing Spray Watch, from late Thursday night through Saturday afternoon.

 

[sbnwx85]

INDOT tweeted this out:

[Malacka11]

The icon is, in fact, a small tick to the west again. Could just be noise but at least we've stopped the bleeding. For now. 

 

[SolidIcewx]

Detroit NWS quiet still..

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Just saw 8 Trumpeter Swans fly overhead. A bit late fellas. They might be doomed.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Detroit NWS quiet still..

Not issuing a winter storm watch and going on the low end is kinda an odd decision 

[sielicki]

Legitimately very worried about this storm. I’m out in the woods and every single tree is still loaded with ice from last week when we had rain followed by a quick freeze that allowed snow to stick. If the wind gusts deliver as forecasted, which seems to be the only certain thing about this system, there’s a very good chance that a tree falls where I would prefer it wouldn’t. I could see this being a serious event in terms of $ damage.

[AWMT30]

DTX is dumb as hell. 

[SolidIcewx]

11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Not issuing a winter storm watch and going on the low end is kinda an odd decision 

Even the social media is quiet. Definitely being patient late tonight or tomorrow we will see something from them Im sure

[The Ole Bucket]

Regardless of the epic snow totals or lackthereof, I must say it is remarkable to get a wind chill watch, winter storm warning and "blowing snow" in the NWS forecast here south of St. Louis.

My forecast page and discussion looks like something you'd see and read for the Dakotas.

[steve23guy]

Everytime I follow a storm track on here.. it misses ... I give up lol, should of known better to get my hopes up

 

 

[Kaner88]

Snippet of a detailed LOT AFD, with the smallest of bones tossed to us snow weenies in bold. Personally very impressed with the intensive messaging re: winds and cold, saying not to focus exclusively on snow when it comes to dangerous impacts.

 

* Our storm system trended more progressive (faster movement and
  farther east track of strong surface low) vs. earlier forecasts,
  which will limit the snow amounts vs. earlier thinking, though
  confidence is still lower end on exact snow totals. Barring a
  notable change back to earlier model solutions, the snow amounts
  will be on the moderate side (roughly 3-7" at this vantage
  point), with possible exception of Porter County Indiana. This
  area may be close enough to be in the envelope of the heavier
  deformation snows on western fringe of the cyclone as well as
  see some modest lake enhancement contribution. Given the large
  swings over the past few days in the model guidance and the
  complexities of the setup, some shifts back to a slower and
  farther west surface low track (and more snow) are a lower but
  not zero probability scenario at this point.

* For the above reason, the message continues to be a de-emphasizing
  of snow amounts and an overarching emphasis on the combination
  of falling snow, strong west-northwest winds (peaking Friday)
  causing blowing and drifting snow and potential blizzard
  conditions, and temperatures and wind chills crashing to
  dangerous levels that will result in dangerous to life
  threatening conditions for anyone who gets stranded outdoors.

* We cannot stress this point enough. Do not focus on the snow
  amounts (which will be difficult to measure as is). The
  conditions later Thursday through Friday night will be more akin
  to what is common in the northern Plains vs. our portion of the
  Midwest. Any non-local travel is encouraged to be rescheduled.
  Forecast temperatures stay below zero through the day Friday,
  with wind chills on Friday bottom out at 25 to 35 below zero,
  which will be the the coldest conditions for most of the area
  since late January 2019. There is expected to be light very
  small Arctic-type snow or at least flurries falling late
  Thursday night through Friday, exacerbating blowing and drifting
  snow issues, particularly in open areas, with exposed north to
  south roadways most susceptible. Higher snow rates potentially
  persisting through Friday in parts of northwest Indiana
  (especially northeast Porter County) may increase the risk of
  true blizzard conditions there.

[SolidIcewx]

[Kaner88]

Straw grasping in full effect, seems like the 18z GFS is showing the slightest slowing as the energy drops down through the Rockies, a modest reversal of previous trends (see attached gif).

[snowman33]

I see what the models are really trying to say...

Merry Christmas ya filthy animal!

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Straw grasping in full effect, seems like the 18z GFS is showing the slightest slowing as the energy drops down through the Rockies, a modest reversal of previous trends (see attached gif).

This is a good loop to see some of the changes that have occurred within guidance over the past few days.

Notice the changes with the lobe around the Hudson, the lead wave in the main through becoming more amped, and changes with the ridging near the East Coast and along the West Coast.

[hlcater]

GFS is a tick back west and a little wetter.

[Chicago916]

I'm not a MET but I have to think the GFS is undoing the precipitation to the west of a rapidly strengthening low?