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Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

George001

By George001,
in New England

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CoastalWx
CoastalWx

It always seems like the control run is initialized from a police cruiser in Brooklyn.

WinterWolf
WinterWolf

Guys, can we take the December snow pack talk to banter. 

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

Random thought, I miss clippers.  Seems like all or nothing lately. Nothing wrong with a nice 2-4" deal.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't imply that it was frigid, but the point is that somewhat above average at our latitude during peak climo is not necessarily a deal breaker, as you implied it was.

He also just posted a DJF composite for phase 7.....there is nothing specific in his composite that tells us it was during negative ENSO and it doesn't single out January.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Random thought, I miss clippers.  Seems like all or nothing lately. Nothing wrong with a nice 2-4" deal.

We basically had one on 12/11.

But yeah, there's been a dearth recently. We had several in the 2018-2019 winter....those were kind of fun. I remember we had back to back clippers in late Feb that winter...first one was like 4" and then another 2-3".....refreshing the landscape.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

First week of January looks about as boring and barren of potential (even if something pops I would favor rain ) as I can recall . (Next 2 weeks ) 

Dec 30ish through Jan 5 is prob just a week-long furnace with nothing interesting. Things might get ok after that though as we see AK pig retrograding to Aleutians.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We basically had one on 12/11.

But yeah, there's been a dearth recently. We had several in the 2018-2019 winter....those were kind of fun. I remember we had back to back clippers in late Feb that winter...first one was like 4" and then another 2-3".....refreshing the landscape.

Just those nice cold ones that kiss the ocean and dump a fluffy 2-4ish. Now it's 8 days tracking whether or not we phase nrn/srn streams etc. 8 days of stress that turns into a disaster 9/10 times lol. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Random thought, I miss clippers.  Seems like all or nothing lately. Nothing wrong with a nice 2-4" deal.

I’ve always said that . I grew up in the 70’s and 80’s when we didn’t get huge storms often. That’s why I welcome all snow events .  Even 1” is fine. I’d rather those every week than waiting all winter for one 12” storm 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe...but the last time we were in a deep -PDO was 2007-2013 and we were making naked snow angels with SWFEs being passed out like halloween candy.

I know the impulse is to need a scapegoat that is larger than just nuances.....such as "there is just something larger I cannot see or put my finger on, but I'm convinced it's there and we need to get rid of it"......but when we're grasping at not-fully-empirical phantoms like that, sometimes it means we actually just succumbed to some misfortune just as we were fortunate in some previous periods. We want further explanation when sometime it doesn't require it.

 

Now, being the skeptic that I am on many things....I can't prove there isn't some nefarious "Screw SNE" underlying demon lurking in the Pacific that only a robust El Nino can flush away.....but I'd want to see how it works before being convinced it's there. Missing a firehose snowstorm by 1-2C on 12/16.....getting some weird exotic phase on 1/17 last winter to cost us a legit KU event, etc, etc. We can go on and on, but a lot of our misses don't seem to be the result of large scale underlying mechanics.

This was my point. Many times it’s just nuances that just F**k you.  Not much that can be done.  Good pattern overall and the nuances got us this December. 

Would a shuffling of the deck be a good idea…sure. But the same thing could happen after the shuffle too.  It’s never just one thing like that.  Seen this many times through the years. 
 

Bottom line is we just need a decent event.  

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve always said that . I grew up in the 70’s and 80’s when we didn’t get huge storms often. That’s why I welcome all snow events .  Even 1” is fine. I’d rather those every week than waiting all winter for one 12” storm 

I miss bombing clippers 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

Even the lil ones are good…we take.  Im ok with 2-4”/2-5”.    Of course the bombers are real fun, but we can’t get a flurry lately. So I’ll start small. 

Same here

I have only seen a coating so far . Yes it's early but our winters down here have been getting shorter.

Need a atmospheric change

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This was my point. Many times it’s just nuances that just F**k you.  Not much that can be done.  Good pattern overall and the nuances got us this December. 

Would a shuffling of the deck be a good idea…sure. But the same thing could happen after the shuffle too.  It’s never just one thing like that.  Seen this many times through the years. 
 

Bottom line is we just need a decent event.  

"The previous failure does not predict the future" is a good way to look at things.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So from what I'm hearing, some of you think we should just forget this year as it's going to be a bad year? 

Now I know that's kind of ridiculous to say cuz we haven't even hit January yet. It just feels that way now because we hadn't had a good December. But when do we have a great December. Not very often

No, nobody is saying cancel winter this year…especially since it started officially just 24 hrs ago. We have a whole winter to get through. Just the bad timing/fortune this month has been discouraging.  And yes, we’ve seen this many times before. So this is not new…but it still stings.

 

Hopefully we get a lil better fortune/can catch a break or two as we move forward. That’s the message or takeaway. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So from what I'm hearing, some of you think we should just forget this year as it's going to be a bad year? 

Now I know that's kind of ridiculous to say cuz we haven't even hit November, December or January yet. It just feels that way now because we hadn't had a good December. But when do we have a great December. Not very often

fyp

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