Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[weathafella]

17 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

The January blizzard was a bit meh here after we were actually issued a blizzy…..but it was a good winter….I remember a Rainer just before Xmas no?  We had to dig our car out at Logan when we flew back from CA after Xmas though…..if I’m remembering right

Yeah right before Christmas it rained.  The Boxing Day event was really unusual in that it clobbered south coastal TX with like 18 inches, outer banks NC with heavy snow, and then clipped eastern New England.  I remember being out for a walk issuing one of my waxing poetic long live winter posts walking on some winding roads with snow clogged trees, roads, houses, me.  I loved that winter and the late January blizzard was amazing.  It actually was (I think) subzero the morning of the event-snow started around 4pm.   I went to brunch with a friend-wife and then 5 year old daughter were in Chicago but I refused to go given the prog and all the snow i would have missed.  She was giving me a hard time about missing a 14 incher in Chicago while we were about to get 25-30 here....lol

[weathafella]

33 minutes ago, George001 said:

That’s a valid point you bring up, I’d take the 984mb due to the contrast between the low and high pressures. That’s a blizzard for sure.

You made the right choice!  You picked the blizzard of 78.

[Heisy]

Hate to say I even looked at it, but the CMC actually went the other way. No more hit on the latest run

Going in the wrong direction. Like I said though I’ll give it to 12z tomorrow for euro/cmc/gfs to show something. If we strike out by 2:30 tomorrow I’d have serious doubts anything comes from this wave.

Still in pike, I’d give it around 10-15%. I wish this next event didn’t fall near Cmas I’d def chase to Buffalo. I’m so hungry for something man, and I’m in Philly which makes it even worst.


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[Heisy]

00z euro is painstakingly close to a phase


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[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

00z euro is painstakingly close to a phase


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Hmmm, Plenty of time to correct that just a tad too. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS looked worse but Euro was pretty close to something last night. We

We'll see what happens today.

[Heisy]

GFS looked worse but Euro was pretty close to something last night. We
We'll see what happens today.

Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see


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[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see


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This one is def a long shot at the moment. There isn't a whole lot to analyze on this...it's kind of just hoping the PV lobe allows the shortwave behind it to amplify, and a better western ridge may help with that. So it's basically a game of "if it improves over the next couple runs, we have a shot, otherwise likely fish food"

[WinterWolf]

Also, I think tomorrow’s and Fridays big storm needs to move in and then out of the way, to see how that affects things for this potential as well…? 

[George001]

I noticed the western ridge was rolling over late causing the phase to miss. Since the models often rush pattern changes, I would think it’s possible the ridge never does roll over until after the storm. Isn’t that something that happens in a progressive pattern/fast flow regime? I don’t really buy that the pattern is progressive at all with Fridays low deepening to the 960s buckling the flow even more. 

[brooklynwx99]

55 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Looks like 6z EPS/control brought the trough E. Gonna need some big improvements today. Nothing else to really track though so we’ll see


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thought the EPS was a slight improvement from 00z

stronger blocking, more interaction with the TPV, and taller ridging into Canada. trough itself is a bit deeper too

[512high]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

thought the EPS was a slight improvement from 00z

stronger blocking, more interaction with the TPV, and taller ridging into Canada. trough itself is a bit deeper too

Still hanging in there, will see what other runs show later, at least its something, maybe a long shot, but something.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

thought the EPS was a slight improvement from 00z

stronger blocking, more interaction with the TPV, and taller ridging into Canada. trough itself is a bit deeper too

Ya that definitely looks a lil better at 6z. 

[mahk_webstah]

Fingers crossed because that Rockies ridge is in a perfect position 

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Also, I think tomorrow’s and Fridays big storm needs to move in and then out of the way, to see how that affects things for this potential as well…? 

Not just for the 27th, but moving beyond as well. It seems many times we get a storm like this it reshuffles the deck on the OP runs

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Fingers crossed because that Rockies ridge is in a perfect position 

I'm sure something will eff this up. Been the tenor of the season. 

[SJonesWX]

cutter, cutter, arctic blast, whiff.

rinse and repeat through the season?

[ORH_wxman]

GFS really isn't close to anything this run. There's just too much wave spacing issues between the PV and the shortwave

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm sure something will eff this up. Been the tenor of the season. 

So we f’d Al season then? Season literally started today lol. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So we f’d Al season then? Season literally started today lol. 

Just so far lol. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

So we f’d Al season then? Season literally started today lol. 

some say the season starts nov 1st.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

some say the season starts nov 1st.

Yep, already more than halfway through.  

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just so far lol. 

I know…just messing around. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

My hopes aren't up, but there is nothing else to even feign interest in, so...

[George001]

I’m not buying the gfs at all because it has the ridge rolling over. I could be wrong but I’m sticking to my guns, I’m convinced we see a drastic shift west on all guidance in 2-3 days. I’m all in on this threat, and plan to make a snow forecast tomorrow for this Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

She gone 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone 

March 13th 2018 was ots even like 5 days out, then it trended hundreds of miles west last min. My forecast was for 2-4 a couple days out, then it got bumped up to 4-8, then 6-12, then 12-18, then I ended up with 2 feet of snow. It’s way too early to give up on this threat.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone 

Before she came.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

March 13th 2018 was ots even like 5 days out, then it trended hundreds of miles west last min. My forecast was for 2-4 a couple days out, then it got bumped up to 4-8, then 6-12, then 12-18, then I ended up with 2 feet of snow. It’s way too early to give up on this threat.

Did you expect anything different from TBlizz George?  Guy never met a storm he liked right off the bat anyway.  Hem and haw himself to 4-8” in the end.  He’s just trying to bust your chops as well.   
 

Can’t tell from this vantage point anyway.  Let’s see what the Euro shows at 1:15. 

[Heisy]

I’m not buying the gfs at all because it has the ridge rolling over. I could be wrong but I’m sticking to my guns, I’m convinced we see a drastic shift west on all guidance in 2-3 days. I’m all in on this threat, and plan to make a snow forecast tomorrow for this Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat.

George I appreciate your enthusiasm. I’ve been on these wx boards since 2001 Wright-weather days. There were times I felt how you are feeling now where I could will a snowstorm into occurring. Modeling have gotten more advanced. Is there a chance? Sure, but you want some data to show something. None of the models are even close right now. Good luck though. As long as you can handle the let down…


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