Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that is working against the threat because it's de-amplifying the western ridge as the system approaches the east coast....you typically want the opposite where the western ridge is building. Now if it can trend to holding the line for another 12 hours, then I think we'd be in business.

I'm going to hold off before acknowledging this one...I feel like I have written far too much this month for .5" of snow.

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS took steps in the right direction, but not close yet. Couldn’t care less what this model shows anyway


.

yeah, the GEFS is better with both the amplitude of the vort as well as the ridging over the WC and Canada

I agree that I would rather have it showing the storm over Bermuda given how poorly it handled this week's storm

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS took steps in the right direction, but not close yet. Couldn’t care less what this model shows anyway


.

Hey, I get it. It’s something to watch. Good enough for now. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, the GEFS is better with both the amplitude of the vort as well as the ridging over the WC and Canada

I agree that I would rather have it showing the storm over Bermuda given how poorly it handled this week's storm

 Not that I’m some pro, but that ridge and trough couplet looks pretty decent to me, on that depiction. But I could be all wrong too. 

[RDRY]

Even if this system somehow comes together and hits the northeast, there is a serious dearth of cold air.

[ice1972]

Thanks for the lecture everyone…..

[ice1972]

We moved here in August 2004…..am I crazy or wasn’t December better back then than now?  It’s been 10 years since any decent pack here…..I should just move to Lake Tahoe and be done with it

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

We moved here in August 2004…..am I crazy or wasn’t December better back then than now?  It’s been 10 years since any decent pack here…..I should just move to Lake Tahoe and be done with it

2004-05:  That was a great winter-snow in November and the December event around Boxing Day.  January torched the first half but then all hell broke loose pretty much until April.  Too bad you took that as normal!

[ice1972]

Just now, weathafella said:

2004-05:  That was a great winter-snow in November and the December event around Boxing Day.  January torched the first half but then all hell broke loose pretty much until April.  Too bad you took that as normal!

The January blizzard was a bit meh here after we were actually issued a blizzy…..but it was a good winter….I remember a Rainer just before Xmas no?  We had to dig our car out at Logan when we flew back from CA after Xmas though…..if I’m remembering right

[The 4 Seasons]

38 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

We moved here in August 2004…..am I crazy or wasn’t December better back then than now?  It’s been 10 years since any decent pack here…..I should just move to Lake Tahoe and be done with it

2002-2005 it seemed to snow almost every year in early december in CT around the 5th-9th and then one or two more during the month. That was a good stretch of Dec storms but after that it's been hit or miss 

[ORH_wxman]

40 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

We moved here in August 2004…..am I crazy or wasn’t December better back then than now?  It’s been 10 years since any decent pack here…..I should just move to Lake Tahoe and be done with it

We did have a string of solid Decembers in the 2000s. Seems like there were only two true duds that decade (2001 and 2006)….all other Decembers had either big snow totals or at least one notable decent storm. We def paid back the piper recently for that good decade of Decembers. 
 

Seems like the 2010s have been bigger Februarys and Marches which were lacking a bit in the 2000s (esp post-2005)….2012-2013 kind of started the era of big Feb/Mar totals that were lacking for a while. 

[The 4 Seasons]

I also don't remember any decent pack at least in southern CT in the 2000s. It would always snow then melt the next day or two or at most a week. Rarely would we see a big storm that lasted until the next one, it always seemed to reset and snow on bare ground the next time. 2010-2011 changed that, then again in 14-15 for almost 2 full months we had 6-22" snowpack, something that never happens around here. Then again to lesser degree in 2021 Feb 2-22nd we had 6-16" snowpack.

[WinterWolf]

Guys, can we take the December snow pack talk to banter. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Guys, can we take the December snow pack talk to banter. 

Snowpack fetish. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Guys, can we take the December snow pack talk to banter. 

Pack this behind you.   

[Baroclinic Zone]

So what are we looking at here?  Right now I see a storm well offshore.  Not sure what mechanics we are gonna get/see to tug that back into rays fanny.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Pack this behind you.   

Pack your can with this 

[Typhoon Tip]

Mm

there’s a signal here… It’s modest, but sometimes at this sort of range that’s all you need. If not gonna be a huge hemisphere signal like the one we’ve been following … those can start this way and show up like subtle. At least one reason to be open minded is because the numerical equivalent of the teleconnectors are still lit up through that time frame.

Another reason is because George got thru a thread ownership without dropping a B bomb. … really deserves its own merit 

[ice1972]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We did have a string of solid Decembers in the 2000s. Seems like there were only two true duds that decade (2001 and 2006)….all other Decembers had either big snow totals or at least one notable decent storm. We def paid back the piper recently for that good decade of Decembers. 
 

Seems like the 2010s have been bigger Februarys and Marches which were lacking a bit in the 2000s (esp post-2005)….2012-2013 kind of started the era of big Feb/Mar totals that were lacking for a while. 

Feb 2006 was good…..24” storm…..then I want to say the next season there was this real protracted period where we got a ton of sleet and cars and trucks had ice cubes on them for days and trucks were getting in trouble for not clearing their roofs off….obviously Jan 2011 was epic…..Feb 2013 epic Nemo…….after that it’s been shit

[metagraphica]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm

there’s a signal here… It’s modest, but sometimes at this sort of range that’s all you need. If not gonna be a huge hemisphere signal like the one we’ve been following … those can start this way and show up like subtle. At least one reason to be open minded is because the numerical equivalent of the teleconnectors are still lit up through that time frame.

Another reason is because George got thru a thread ownership without dropping a B bomb. … really deserves its own merit 

[Heisy]

Mm
there’s a signal here… It’s modest, but sometimes at this sort of range that’s all you need. If not gonna be a huge hemisphere signal like the one we’ve been following … those can start this way and show up like subtle. At least one reason to be open minded is because the numerical equivalent of the teleconnectors are still lit up through that time frame.
Another reason is because George got thru a thread ownership without dropping a B bomb. … really deserves its own merit 

Good post as usual,

I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East.

Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow


.

[78Blizzard]

I guess some folks here haven't learned their lesson in starting 8-day storm threads. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I guess some folks here haven't learned their lesson in starting 8-day storm threads. 

The last guy who did was a Meteorologist.  It didn’t work out the way we all hoped…but it’s nobody’s fault.  What’s the difference here? There’s clearly a signal…so whatever? It’s started, if you don’t want to come in here ..stay in the Dec thread.  

[78Blizzard]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The last guy who did was a Meteorologist.  It didn’t work out the way we all hoped…but it’s nobody’s fault.  What’s the difference here? There’s clearly a signal…so whatever? It’s started, if you don’t want to come in here ..stay in the Dec thread.  

As I've said before, you and others had no problem railing on James, may he RIP, when he started 8 day threads because there was a "signal".  You can't have it both ways.

[UnitedWx]

27 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Good post as usual,

I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East.

Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow


.

Hate to say I even looked at it, but the CMC actually went the other way. No more hit on the latest run

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

As I've said before, you and others had no problem railing on James, may he RIP, when he started 8 day threads because there was a "signal".  You can't have it both ways.

James shaped up as time went on.  Honestly, I wouldn’t have started one at this lead, but George did.  So what are we to do?  Who cares about one way or another? There’s a lil something to track here. So we can either track it in here?  Or track in the Dec Thread?  Does it really matter in the end?  Sure, perhaps he should have waited another couple days?  But if it turns into a bonafide threat, will it make any difference?  And if it’s a flop, it won’t be any different than this weeks disaster for us that was started from a week out? 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

35 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Good post as usual,

I really think this one is going to rely on whether or not a piece of the TPV can drop down and phase with southern branch. That would help mitigate the PAC trying to race everything East.

Think we really need Euro or CMC show a hit by 12z tomorrow


.

Good post , what would you say odds are 15%?

[George001]

Last storm trended 1000 miles west. This storm is exactly what I want to see at this lead time. Well offshore, with a 500 mb pattern that argues for a farther west track. Hell, the Euro hinted at triple phaser potential. Looking at the surface yeah it look like there isn’t a threat, but there is a lot of energy flying around. The ingredients are all there, good airmass, ideally placed PNA ridge and weakening NAO blocking. Honestly, I’m kind of glad the Friday storm is going to cut and blow up rather than just be like a 990mb low over Boston or something. Really the difference for coastal areas is 55 vs 45 degree rain, but the monster cutter sets up the next threat better than a 990mb low over Boston would. 

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Last storm trended 1000 miles west. This storm is exactly what I want to see at this lead time. Well offshore, with a 500 mb pattern that argues for a farther west track. Hell, the Euro hinted at triple phaser potential. Looking at the surface yeah it look like there isn’t a threat, but there is a lot of energy flying around. The ingredients are all there, good airmass, ideally placed PNA ridge and weakening NAO blocking. Honestly, I’m kind of glad the Friday storm is going to cut and blow up rather than just be like a 990mb low over Boston or something. Really the difference for coastal areas is 55 vs 45 degree rain, but the monster cutter sets up the next threat better than a 990mb low over Boston would. 

George, which would you prefer?

984 low stacked near bm with a 1055 hp over Manitoba 

OR

972 low passing over bm with a 1024 hp over Ontario

 

[George001]

42 minutes ago, weathafella said:

George, which would you prefer?

984 low stacked near bm with a 1055 hp over Manitoba 

OR

972 low passing over bm with a 1024 hp over Ontario

 

That’s a valid point you bring up, I’d take the 984mb due to the contrast between the low and high pressures. That’s a blizzard for sure.