Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

You can thank that low slamming into the NW just in time to deamplify everything. great timing!

When you’re cold, you’re cold 

[George001]

3 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Phase 7 is a torch in Jan during Nina, its well supported and coupled 

You aren’t entirely wrong in that phase 7 in moderate-strong Nina’s is mild, but it’s not a torch. Phases 4-6 are the torch phases, it looks like the MJO goes through those phases for a week. It’s a one week torch, that’s it. Idk what all the talk about closing the shades for 3 weeks is about, just like how the epic pattern was overhyped, the torch is being overhyped as well. I will admit, I am guilty of overhyping the epic pattern, I was thinking we would get 3-4 hits. If the models were wrong about that, why can’t they be wrong about having a 2+ week torch? The MJO only supports one week.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

[brooklynwx99]

seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly

but yes, still a longshot

[weathafella]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Need El Nino

We'll bring you 1994-95.

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly

but yes, still a longshot

FWIW the GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast than 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We'll bring you 1994-95.

No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.

[George001]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

Still 5 days out, too early to write it off. If the ridge doesn’t roll over this still has big potential, that has not changed. 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

Hey Einstein, why don’t we wait for the Euro, and the ensembles from both to see where we stand?   That might he a wise thing to do…. 

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.

You think it stays weak? I’d love to see a weak west based nino next year. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Hey Einstein, why don’t we wait for the Euro, and the ensembles from both to see where we stand?   That might he a wise thing to do…. 

Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

What’s magical? So let’s wait and see…that’s what we do here ..no? We look and track.  Nobody thinks it’s a big threat at the moment…I think we established that already. Pay attention and keep up..

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Random thought, I miss clippers.  Seems like all or nothing lately. Nothing wrong with a nice 2-4" deal.

12-11 5  inches

[DJln491]

getting a little chippy in here.  we need snow, and we need it bad

[ORH_wxman]

45 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What’s magical? So let’s wait and see…that’s what we do here ..no? We look and track.  Nobody thinks it’s a big threat at the moment…I think we established that already. Pay attention and keep up..

He feels the need to emphasize what's been said like 800 times....it's a longshot. But it's the Tblizz M.O......keep b*tching and whining until one hits you with the jackpot.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

51 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

I grew up in Raynham , we were pretty comparable to providence . No s shore OE , Usually died about 5-8 miles NE of me wrong side of coastal front , i was pretty sure It was a bit under . PVD occasionally colder when winds were East and occasionally we did better being a bit east. I was often a sad weenie in my years there.  92’ blizzard was 2-3” lol super storm 11” then pouring rains leaving 3” glacier   . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

You think it stays weak? I’d love to see a weak west based nino next year. 

No....probably moderate or strong (not super).

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

2021-22.  54.6”

2020-21.  50.0

2019-20.  28.2

2018-2019. 38.25

2017-18.   77.2

2016-17.   67.1

2015-16.  47.25

 

7 year average …  51.8

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

Well I can speak for him because I've been in that corridor of luck...most certainly he has done well. He was a bit less than me in 3/4/19 and the 1/7/22 storm...but he has done well for sure. 

I'd also say his avg might be closer to mid 40s. Here tucked in not far from the Easton/Raynham line...probably one of the best spots in Taunton. NWS COOP I think is 46" since start of records there. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I can speak for him because I've been in that corridor of luck...most certainly he has done well. He was a bit less than me in 3/4/19 and the 1/7/22 storm...but he has done well for sure. 

I'd also say his avg might be closer to mid 40s. Here tucked in not far from the Easton/Raynham line...probably one of the best spots in Taunton. NWS COOP I think is 46" since start of records there. 

I’d say it’s mid 40s here. I’m like 1-2 miles from easton at my location 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’d like to hear bobs thoughts on this 

[CoastalWx]

Actually NWS has wrong data for last winter upon looking...way too low. But regardless, he's in an ok spot. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d like to hear bobs thoughts on this 

Shave off maybe 5" give or take. Maybe 6". 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Shave off maybe 5" give or take. Maybe 6". 

Yeah… I’d say bob is like 5” or so less.

 

People don’t realize how huge Taunton is. I’m in the furthest NE corner of Taunton and northern most part of Raynham. 
 

im literally closer to Foxboro and parts of Sharon than I am to bob 

[ORH_wxman]

Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.

[Damage In Tolland]

The ocean is still the ocean. 1 mile or 5 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.

Isn’t nearly 30 years a good sample size though? Going further back is getting into like different generations. At least personally, im not sure how useful factoring data from 30+ years ago is in getting a current representative average.

[512high]

George is getting upset! This page is for his "storm" next week