Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[MJO812]

[brooklynwx99]

persistent amplification trend ongoing over the last 8 runs of the GEFS. the trough is ticking westward, too

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

persistent amplification trend ongoing over the last 8 runs of the GEFS. the trough is ticking westward, too

Tic toc…

[mahk_webstah]

All it took was George to give up…

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It's not a crap shoot....especially once they have some intensity. It determines where the forcing sets up to a large extent.

How can you determine position?  I mean 1994-95 was a robust very east based nino.  What tools do you use determine say equally robust but modoki or even full basin?

[UnitedWx]

5 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

All it took was George to give up…

He's trying the 'ol DIT reverse psychology

[MJO812]

6 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Tic toc…

 

[MJO812]

[Hazey]

I don't think this will come into clear focus until we get the Christmas massacre out of the way. That clipper s/w is pretty robust though. Still an eye on it. 

[mahk_webstah]

Wpc nor GYX have anything at all to say about this. Not even mentioned. I suppose it could get interesting tomorrow, but…

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, weathafella said:

How can you determine position?  I mean 1994-95 was a robust very east based nino.  What tools do you use determine say equally robust but modoki or even full basin?

Location of the greatest SST anomalies in the crudest sense..you can also look at OLR and VP.

I have plenty on that in my outlooks.

But I don't mean to imply that there aren't exceptions...obviously nothing operates in a vacuum and there are other hemispheric drivers to consider, but ENSO structure is a key player assuming decent intensity. The position isn't as important for very weak events because obviously the forcing is weaker, thus the relationship is more diffuse.

[dendrite]

This threat should start looking really good by New Year’s 

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This threat should start looking really good by New Year’s 

LOL Yea, drink 'til its cute-

[ORH_wxman]

NAM was mildly intriguing. Might end up producing some light snow even if the bigger storm idea is a bust. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM was mildly intriguing. Might end up producing some light snow even if the bigger storm idea is a bust. 

Nickels and dimes as somebody once said…we’ll take that. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Got flurries on GFS

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Got flurries on GFS

Closer 

[ORH_wxman]

Increased ridging in central Canada is helping a bit on the 12z GFS. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

closer to what? what are you expecting?

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

closer to what? what are you expecting?

Some possible flakes.... Yay!!! 

Kidding. Maybe a light Snow event

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Some possible flakes.... Yay!!! 

Kidding. Maybe a light Snow event

If you sharpen up the trough just a bit more, there could be a decent band of fronto snows…I think there’s too much work to do to get a legit major coastal storm, but there’s still a chance we could get a shovelable event. Low chance…but it’s still possible. 

[Hazey]

Definitely still possible a minor event can happen. Especially for folks like myself who haven’t gotten any snow yet this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you sharpen up the trough just a bit more, there could be a decent band of fronto snows…I think there’s too much work to do to get a legit major coastal storm, but there’s still a chance we could get a shovelable event. Low chance…but it’s still possible. 

Still a shot at some garbage inverted terd, too....can never entirely close the door on those things.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still a shot at some garbage inverted terd, too....can never entirely close the door on those things.

I sent a little bitterness there lol 

I completely get it. It's like a mouse trying to reach for that tiny little crumb. Something will come our way.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I sent a little bitterness there lol 

I completely get it. It's like a mouse trying to reach for that tiny little crumb. Something will come our way.

 

 

Yea, I mean....I'm coming out of December with 1.5" given the pattern that just materialized....yhat is flat out sadistic, especially given how much the last several years have sucked here relative to other locales.

Anyway, still very much in on this season....happy holidays.

[Snowcrazed71]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I mean....I'm coming out of December with 1.5" given the pattern that just materialized....yhat is flat out sadistic, especially given how much the last several years have sucked here relative to other locales.

Anyway, still very much in on this season....happy holidays.

Happy holidays to you as well. 

[EastonSN+]

EURO had some flurries

[Whineminster]

Can we just get some SWFEs and clippers like the days of yore? It's like they aren't part of our climate anymore. 

[George001]

34 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Can we just get some SWFEs and clippers like the days of yore? It's like they aren't part of our climate anymore. 

Yeah it seems to be all or nothing now. It’s too bad because with some better luck we might have gotten a few SWFEs and clippers in this pattern. I love blizzards, but it would be nice to get more smaller events in between when the pattern isn’t favorable for a big one.