Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[CoastalWx]

If we use long term, I'd say 40-41ish. Depends on your period of record I guess.  He's sort of in the zone that if they miss out on a SWFE, he can get a south of pike deal. It's close to Logan avg. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t nearly 30 years a good sample size though? Going further back is getting into like different generations. At least personally, im not sure how useful factoring data from 30+ years ago is in getting a current representative average.

You can use 30 years if you want for snowfall but you'd have to understand that it won't be as predictive of the future as a longer term mean. A lot of decadal cycles go about 25-30 years so if you aren't capturing the both the peaks and valleys of those cycles, then you'll get a skewed presentation of what your snowfall climate really is.

The 1980s has been eliminated from the 30 year mean....but those of us who remember that decade know what can happen. If you looked at only the mid-1990s and beyond, you would not see how things can go badly for longer periods like they did in the 1980s and early 1990s....because that 30 year climate calculation has artificially removed that period from the record.

 

For temperatures, it makes a bit more sense to eliminate the decades of yore, but it's a lot more perilous for snowfall IMHO.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah… I’d say bob is like 5” or so less.

 

People don’t realize how huge Taunton is. I’m in the furthest NE corner of Taunton and northern most part of Raynham. 
 

im literally closer to Foxboro and parts of Sharon than I am to bob 

Raynham blows . I grew up in N Raynham. 1 mile S of dog track Where Robinson street meets Anne street . N side of Easton a good 5 miles NW of where I lived was and further is where the gradient usually is in my experience N Easton is consistently better .

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

31 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d like to hear bobs thoughts on this 

Big turd circling the bowl.  I see nothing right now with this.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Big turd circling the bowl.  I see nothing right now with this.

No fries either.

[SouthCoastMA]

12z euro says

[George001]

things have changed, the Euro went in the wrong direction. Im gonna bust again damn it! On to the next one

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

things have changed, the Euro went in the wrong direction. Im gonna bust again damn it! On to the next one

There was never much of any support for this threat....it was always a long shot. It's not a good idea to make threads on systems that have a decent chance of never forming to begin with.

[UnitedWx]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

things have changed, the Euro went in the wrong direction. Im gonna bust again damn it! On to the next one

Start a thread for the next one?

[moneypitmike]

Only in the rare instance of multiple events in the course of a week, there is no reason to create a thread more than 3 days out.  That's what the discussion thread is for.

[weathafella]

George, when the eastern trough is lifting out concurrently with digging off the coast the outcome will be a nothing burger for land areas in the USA.  Consider this as a teachable moment.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Only in the rare instance of multiple events in the course of a week, there is no reason to create a thread more than 3 days out.  That's what the discussion thread is for.

I think threads can be created a bit further than that if the signal is very strong...there are certain events where that is possible. But yeah....generally we at least wait until inside 100 hours.

[George001]

I thought we had a great chance at a big storm but my snow goggles blinded me again

[ariof]

Congrats BDA.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

Congrats BDA.

ASOUS.

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

I thought we had a great chance at a big storm but my snow goggles blinded me again

George, don't apologize. There was a chance, and The fact there was a chance, I don't see anything wrong in what you did. A lot of you are kind of brutal when it comes to teasing him, although I know most of you are just having fun.

Seriousness, I think we all are looking for that storm to track where we all have big smiles on her face and are here for what we're coming here for which is a nice big snow storm. Go. Is he on the kid, I give him credit for? Even having the courage to start this thread. I'm sure plenty of you who have started a thread also saw that it hadn't come to fruition.

I guess we'll wait and see what happens with the next one.

 

[ariof]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I guess we'll wait and see what happens with the next one.

If the next one shifts SE 700 miles we may be in business.

[brooklynwx99]

the ICON is actually more amped. either this thing is totally cracked out, or it's going to pull an insane coup. my money is on the former

[brooklynwx99]

just a bit of a trend from the GFS here haha

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a bit of a trend from the GFS here haha

Ridge axis is just too far east but I do agree it's been a bunch of baby step improvements.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ridge axis is just too far east but I do agree it's been a bunch of baby step improvements.

yeah, I'm not expecting anything here, but I've seen crazier things happen at 4-5 days out

we're not getting anything until the week of like Jan 8th, so why not track it haha

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ridge axis is just too far east but I do agree it's been a bunch of baby step improvements.

Perhaps that ridge axis is not quite correct either…it is 4-5 days out.  That’s always a possibility.  If any one of these things are off, things will play out different.  Everybody knows this, but sometimes it seems we accept a 5 day prog as having everything(ridge and trough ideas) correct. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Perhaps that ridge axis is not quite correct either…it is 4-5 days out.  That’s always a possibility.  If any one of these things are off, things will play out different.  Everybody knows this, but sometimes it seems we accept a 5 day prog as having everything(ridge and trough ideas) correct. 

Possible? Sure but likelihood is like <5%

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Possible? Sure but likelihood is like <5%

Well that’s my only point.  The thing has improved…and I’m not thinking anything happens either.  But stranger things have happened too. As Brooklyn99 says…it doesn’t hurt to give a quick glance every 6 hrs if one is interested. And if not interested ya don’t. 

[512high]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well that’s my only point.  The thing has improved…and I’m not thinking anything happens either.  But stranger things have happened too. As Brooklyn99 says…it doesn’t hurt to give a quick glance every 6 hrs if one is interested. And if not interested ya don’t. 

Agree, after this POS tonight ,what's left, we watch, we desperate !

[Baroclinic Zone]

5 minutes ago, 512high said:

Agree, after this POS tonight ,what's left, we watch, we desperate !

I’ll watch, I’m never desperate.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’ll watch, I’m never desperate.

Well I think his job depends on snow…ours do not. So that can make a difference. 

[512high]

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well I think his job depends on snow…ours do not. So that can make a difference. 

WinterWolf, we plow 4 commercial lots, 2 pay us wether it snows or not, right now, good thing going! Other two lots per storm etc. I just love snow!, walking/hiking, playing with the dogs etc. However, It is not our "main" income.

[weathafella]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.

Why one vs the other?  I think it’s a crapshoot but I don’t study it to the extent you do.

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why one vs the other?  I think it’s a crapshoot but I don’t study it to the extent you do.

It's not a crap shoot....especially once they have some intensity. It determines where the forcing sets up to a large extent.