Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 4:10 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

You can thank that low slamming into the NW just in time to deamplify everything. great timing!

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When you’re cold, you’re cold 

[George001]

  On 12/22/2022 at 1:31 PM, qg_omega said:

Phase 7 is a torch in Jan during Nina, its well supported and coupled 

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You aren’t entirely wrong in that phase 7 in moderate-strong Nina’s is mild, but it’s not a torch. Phases 4-6 are the torch phases, it looks like the MJO goes through those phases for a week. It’s a one week torch, that’s it. Idk what all the talk about closing the shades for 3 weeks is about, just like how the epic pattern was overhyped, the torch is being overhyped as well. I will admit, I am guilty of overhyping the epic pattern, I was thinking we would get 3-4 hits. If the models were wrong about that, why can’t they be wrong about having a 2+ week torch? The MJO only supports one week.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

[brooklynwx99]

seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly

but yes, still a longshot

[weathafella]

  On 12/22/2022 at 12:32 PM, MJO812 said:

Need El Nino

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We'll bring you 1994-95.

[EastonSN+]

  On 12/22/2022 at 4:50 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

seems like the GFS looked a bit better honestly

but yes, still a longshot

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FWIW the GEFS had a few more LPs closer to the coast than 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2022 at 4:55 PM, weathafella said:

We'll bring you 1994-95.

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No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.

[George001]

  On 12/22/2022 at 4:44 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

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Still 5 days out, too early to write it off. If the ridge doesn’t roll over this still has big potential, that has not changed. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/22/2022 at 4:44 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This thread is dead unless you believe the icon. CMc and GFS both look worse 

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Hey Einstein, why don’t we wait for the Euro, and the ensembles from both to see where we stand?   That might he a wise thing to do…. 

[George001]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way. That was east-based. Pretty confident it will be west-based.

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You think it stays weak? I’d love to see a weak west based nino next year. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:08 PM, WinterWolf said:

Hey Einstein, why don’t we wait for the Euro, and the ensembles from both to see where we stand?   That might he a wise thing to do…. 

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Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

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What’s magical? So let’s wait and see…that’s what we do here ..no? We look and track.  Nobody thinks it’s a big threat at the moment…I think we established that already. Pay attention and keep up..

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/22/2022 at 1:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

Random thought, I miss clippers.  Seems like all or nothing lately. Nothing wrong with a nice 2-4" deal.

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12-11 5  inches

[DJln491]

getting a little chippy in here.  we need snow, and we need it bad

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:16 PM, WinterWolf said:

What’s magical? So let’s wait and see…that’s what we do here ..no? We look and track.  Nobody thinks it’s a big threat at the moment…I think we established that already. Pay attention and keep up..

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He feels the need to emphasize what's been said like 800 times....it's a longshot. But it's the Tblizz M.O......keep b*tching and whining until one hits you with the jackpot.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Magical thinking continue I see.

A minuscule improvement every other run isn’t going to get this anywhere near New England.

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What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:07 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

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His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

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I grew up in Raynham , we were pretty comparable to providence . No s shore OE , Usually died about 5-8 miles NE of me wrong side of coastal front , i was pretty sure It was a bit under . PVD occasionally colder when winds were East and occasionally we did better being a bit east. I was often a sad weenie in my years there.  92’ blizzard was 2-3” lol super storm 11” then pouring rains leaving 3” glacier   . 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2022 at 5:08 PM, George001 said:

You think it stays weak? I’d love to see a weak west based nino next year. 

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No....probably moderate or strong (not super).

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:07 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

What have you got for snow the last 8 years . I’m trying to see if you’ve done that well or not really. I know you got a blizzard last year but I’d guess you average 35-37 ish . Any idea your totals over last several years 

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2021-22.  54.6”

2020-21.  50.0

2019-20.  28.2

2018-2019. 38.25

2017-18.   77.2

2016-17.   67.1

2015-16.  47.25

 

7 year average …  51.8

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

His avg is prob a little higher than that...I'd put it closer to 40. But yeah, he's def over-achieved. My bet is the only winter he's been below average recent;y was 2019-2020....his area keeps getting bailed out by a biggie (blizzard last year, Superbowl storm in 2021, 3/4/19 a few years ago, etc)

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Well I can speak for him because I've been in that corridor of luck...most certainly he has done well. He was a bit less than me in 3/4/19 and the 1/7/22 storm...but he has done well for sure. 

I'd also say his avg might be closer to mid 40s. Here tucked in not far from the Easton/Raynham line...probably one of the best spots in Taunton. NWS COOP I think is 46" since start of records there. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:28 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well I can speak for him because I've been in that corridor of luck...most certainly he has done well. He was a bit less than me in 3/4/19 and the 1/7/22 storm...but he has done well for sure. 

I'd also say his avg might be closer to mid 40s. Here tucked in not far from the Easton/Raynham line...probably one of the best spots in Taunton. NWS COOP I think is 46" since start of records there. 

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I’d say it’s mid 40s here. I’m like 1-2 miles from easton at my location 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

I’d like to hear bobs thoughts on this 

[CoastalWx]

Actually NWS has wrong data for last winter upon looking...way too low. But regardless, he's in an ok spot. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:31 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’d like to hear bobs thoughts on this 

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Shave off maybe 5" give or take. Maybe 6". 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:33 PM, CoastalWx said:

Shave off maybe 5" give or take. Maybe 6". 

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Yeah… I’d say bob is like 5” or so less.

 

People don’t realize how huge Taunton is. I’m in the furthest NE corner of Taunton and northern most part of Raynham. 
 

im literally closer to Foxboro and parts of Sharon than I am to bob 

[ORH_wxman]

Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.

[Damage In Tolland]

The ocean is still the ocean. 1 mile or 5 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/22/2022 at 6:35 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Mid 40s since 1996 though.....ORH would be like 75" average if started at that point. I'd lop off at least 3-4 inches from that to get a better long term average.

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Isn’t nearly 30 years a good sample size though? Going further back is getting into like different generations. At least personally, im not sure how useful factoring data from 30+ years ago is in getting a current representative average.

[512high]

George is getting upset! This page is for his "storm" next week