Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[George001]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

CMC nods to ECMWF with a deeper trough and the TPV trying to nudge into the backside of said trough

Doesnt quite get it done this run but damn that’s a big improvement. If the main system slows down enough that the 3rd piece in Montana phases we could see some crazy runs the next few days. Very excited to see the Euro tonight, good start to the 0z suite even if it’s not a hit yet.

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, George001 said:

Doesnt quite get it done this run but damn that’s a big improvement. If the main system slows down enough that the 3rd piece in Montana phases we could see some crazy runs the next few days. Very excited to see the Euro tonight, good start to the 0z suite even if it’s not a hit yet.

George for once. I hope you are right with this one. Let's just hope that you're raw excitement and enthusiasm will get this one done.

[cleetussnow]

We got a few days on this one to cnahge. Need to get past Friday to see the light shined on the 27th.

[Heisy]

Euro still teasing us it seems



.

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

Euro still teasing us it seems



.

Has it been getting better at all the last couple runs? I haven't had a chance today to look at those charts 

[CoastalWx]

Still too progressive 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Heisy said:

Euro still teasing us it seems



.

Getting better at h5

[SouthCoastMA]

I'm usually in on tracking potential threats even if only a slight chance but this one ain't doing it for me. it would be nice if one model had something 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm usually in on tracking potential threats even if only a slight chance but this one ain't doing it for me. it would be nice if one model had something 

Yeah… if we had an actual hit on anything it may be more interesting.

[Baroclinic Zone]

5h will continue to improve until it closes off south of the UIK to give them a huge New Years Blizzard.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

5h will continue to improve until it closes off south of the UIK to give them a huge New Years Blizzard.

We need to start seeing improvements soon 

The NAO going positive and the PNA relaxing are not helping us in this case. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need to start seeing improvements soon 

The NAO going positive and the PNA relaxing are not helping us in this case. 

This seems to be the year/season already where nothing helps. In fact it’s just the opposite lol, where everything lines up to sabotage any chances…we back to the 80’s. What a horrible thing that is. 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This seems to be the year/season already where nothing helps. In fact it’s just the opposite lol, where everything lines up to sabotage any chances…we back to the 80’s. What a horrible thing that is. 

Need El Nino

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

This seems to be the year/season already where nothing helps. In fact it’s just the opposite lol, where everything lines up to sabotage any chances…we back to the 80’s. What a horrible thing that is. 

Ha yeah. I feel like we are in the late 90s again. 5 below average snowfall seasons in 6 years. Extremely warm with one absolute ratter.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Need El Nino

Nahhh…c’mon that’s way overrated for god sakes. There’s no one thing, you know that. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ha yeah. I feel like we are in the late 90s again. 5 below average snowfall seasons in 6 years. Extremely warm with one absolute ratter.

Late 90’s have nothing on the mid to late 80’s…but ya they were both Horrid periods. Looks like we back to that shit. 

[Snowcrazed71]

So from what I'm hearing, some of you think we should just forget this year as it's going to be a bad year? 

Now I know that's kind of ridiculous to say cuz we haven't even hit January yet. It just feels that way now because we hadn't had a good December. But when do we have a great December. Not very often

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nahhh…c’mon that’s way overrated for god sakes. There’s no one thing, you know that. 

I'm ready for el nino, too. Its not overrated when you are going on a fifth consecutive season of suck. Deck needs shuffling from my perspective.

[40/70 Benchmark]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Late 90’s have nothing on the mid to late 80’s…but ya they were both Horrid periods. Looks like we back to that shit. 

This period is comparable to the late 80s/early 90s for me in the sense that I have had 4 consecutive subpar seasons..a fifth this year would beat it. However, 88-92 was worse from a snow/season perspective, since it had 3 ratters with under 30". I have managed to avoid that this time. Just moderately below average seasons strung together.

[40/70 Benchmark]

40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Ha yeah. I feel like we are in the late 90s again. 5 below average snowfall seasons in 6 years. Extremely warm with one absolute ratter.

Yea, late 90's probably a better comparison for me, too...more similar to the current stretch in that while there were no true ratters, it was still several more moderately shitty years in a row.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Getting better at h5

This is starting to feel like the Red Sox Facebook alert articles notifying you every 5 minutes of the key FAs that they are "in on"....

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is starting to feel like the Red Sox Facebook alert articles notifying you every 5 minutes of the key FAs that they are "in on"....

  

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm ready for el nino, too. Its not overrated when you are going on a fifth consecutive season of suck. Deck needs shuffling from my perspective.

Given the previous 2 El Ninos sucked donkey balls....I'm not convinced it's the answer. Sometimes you just whiff on a decent pattern.

Surprised we only got the minor 12/11 event out of this, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We've gotten blasted on worse looks

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Given the previous 2 El Ninos sucked donkey balls....I'm not convinced it's the answer. Sometimes you just whiff on a decent pattern.

Surprised we only got the minor 12/11 event out of this, but that's the way it goes sometimes. We've gotten blasted on worse looks

 

 

 

I disagree. I would still rather take my chances with el nino....one of those two seasons was hardly an el nino, and the other one was more like a la nina. I personally feel that this cold, la nina like Pacific feel has been going on longer than the recent stretch of la nina seasons...which makes sense give that were in the -PDO portion of the multidecadal cycle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't think many can argue that from the vantage point of MBY, it would be good to shake things up. Its been several seasons of managing to miss out, whether it be in a mesoscale sense, or more synoptically speaking. Its really not up for debate at this point.

[EastonSN+]

On a positive note, Phases 7 and 8 incoming?

[qg_omega]

Phase 7 is a torch in Jan during Nina, its well supported and coupled 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree. I would still rather take my chances with el nino....one of those two seasons was hardly an el nino, and the other one was more like a la nina. I personally feel that this cold, la nina like Pacific feel has been going on longer than the recent stretch of la nina seasons...which makes sense give that were in the -PDO portion of the multidecadal cycle.

Maybe...but the last time we were in a deep -PDO was 2007-2013 and we were making naked snow angels with SWFEs being passed out like halloween candy.

I know the impulse is to need a scapegoat that is larger than just nuances.....such as "there is just something larger I cannot see or put my finger on, but I'm convinced it's there and we need to get rid of it"......but when we're grasping at not-fully-empirical phantoms like that, sometimes it means we actually just succumbed to some misfortune just as we were fortunate in some previous periods. We want further explanation when sometime it doesn't require it.

 

Now, being the skeptic that I am on many things....I can't prove there isn't some nefarious "Screw SNE" underlying demon lurking in the Pacific that only a robust El Nino can flush away.....but I'd want to see how it works before being convinced it's there. Missing a firehose snowstorm by 1-2C on 12/16.....getting some weird exotic phase on 1/17 last winter to cost us a legit KU event, etc, etc. We can go on and on, but a lot of our misses don't seem to be the result of large scale underlying mechanics.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Phase 7 is a torch in Jan during Nina, its well supported and coupled 

I've seen much more intimidating "torches"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe...but the last time we were in a deep -PDO was 2007-2013 and we were making naked snow angels with SWFEs being passed out like halloween candy.

I know the impulse is to need a scapegoat that is larger than just nuances.....such as "there is just something larger I cannot see or put my finger on, but I'm convinced it's there and we need to get rid of it"......but when we're grasping at not-fully-empirical phantoms like that, sometimes it means we actually just succumbed to some misfortune just as we were fortunate in some previous periods. We want further explanation when sometime it doesn't require it.

 

Now, being the skeptic that I am on many things....I can't prove there isn't some nefarious "Screw SNE" underlying demon lurking in the Pacific that only a robust El Nino can flush away.....but I'd want to see how it works before being convinced it's there. Missing a firehose snowstorm by 1-2C on 12/16.....getting some weird exotic phase on 1/17 last winter to cost us a legit KU event, etc, etc. We can go on and on, but a lot of our misses don't seem to be the result of large scale underlying mechanics.

I never said that....you know yourself that a weak el nino is out money ENSO phase.

I was speaking more on a personal level because the last several years have been fine for most of SNE TBH...especially your area.

But I am not "out" on this season. I still think that there will be to hell to pay at some point in January.