Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Obviously it’s not a guarantee, but the blizzard talk isn’t “bullshit”. If the ridge doesn’t roll over, that would allow the intense northern energy phase with the southern energy. This setup has a strong high to to the north, the contrast between the high and low pressure if the storm phases would lead to intense winds as well as heavy snow. There absolutely is blizzard potential if things come together for this threat.

Blizzard is not a good word to use to describe a storm threat unless there is ample evidence that blizzard conditions are likely. Not every coastal nor Easter is a blizzard. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This looks like dung, just like every system before it this month.

[dryslot]

Substitute a few words in the sub thread title, Non' easter, Flizzard and Miller lite.

[78Blizzard]

This looks more like a threat to spoil a nice day at the beach in Bermuda.

[SJonesWX]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Blizzard is not a good word to use to describe a storm threat unless there is ample evidence that blizzard conditions are likely. Not every coastal nor Easter is a blizzard. 

I’ve been trying to tell him that but he ain’t listening 

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

I’ve been trying to tell him that but he ain’t listening 

He’s drunk with juice of the Blizzard Gods…everything is a Blizzard to young George.  Poor kid is the spawn of James…just the love of blizzards is increased exponentially in this offspring.   And we thought James was enthusiastic….

[brooklynwx99]

5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is the view I'm taking on this. Unlikely to occur, but there's enough potential that keep half an eye on it and see if the ridge improves a bit or the spacing between the main shortwave and the PV.

looks like the EPS improved on this... seems like a bit more interaction between the S/W and the TPV? might be due to the slightly stronger block

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

looks like the EPS improved on this... seems like a bit more interaction between the S/W and the TPV? might be due to the slightly stronger block

[WinterWolf]

So that Euro Ensemble depiction looks decent to me.  It improved and it’s got plenty of time to improve some more.  
 

Now the way things have been going, I suspect it won’t improve. But that look doesn’t look like complete dung right there to me. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

This is a Doug Flutie Hail Mary storm.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is a Doug Flutie Hail Mary storm.

Oh no doubt…but that ensemble look wasn’t bad at all.  I mean ya gotta give it that on that EPS.  Does it have a clue….probably not. Modeling sucks ass lately, But that’s what it’s showing at 18z.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is a Doug Flutie Hail Mary storm.

28-3 except instead of Tom Brady and Josh Mcdaniels…. It’s Mac Jones and fatty patricia

[brooklynwx99]

imagine tracking potential weather on a weather forum. crazy stuff, I know

it's a longshot, but there's nothing in the pipeline for like two weeks, so why not look at it

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

imagine tracking potential weather on a weather forum. crazy stuff, I know

it's a longshot, but there's nothing in the pipeline for like two weeks, so why not look at it

I agree. Thanks for posting and explaining what you see. Love your posts..I always learn something from them. We all know it’s a long shot at this juncture, but as you said, not much else currently to look at.  

[MJO812]

Weenies giving up too early

Never learn 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weenies giving up too early

Never learn 

Everybody wants to bust balls, and be comedians…sometimes it gets a bit much.
 

Most everybody gets it’s not very likely currently, everybody except(self admittedly)George. But I mean when an ensemble run from a major league model is posted, it improves some and is explained by a pro, that’s what this place is “supposedly” all about.  
 

So we keep one eye open for a bit more. 

[CoastalWx]

18z EPS looked better, but a very long shot. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

18z EPS looked better, but a very long shot. 

Yes sir. But nothing else to track or talk about, so we peak for a lil longer before we close the shades. 

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

imagine tracking potential weather on a weather forum. crazy stuff, I know

it's a longshot, but there's nothing in the pipeline for like two weeks, so why not look at it

This is true... its just the thread starters phrasing and extreme exuberance that causes the nails on a chalkboard response to the.... threat

[WinterWolf]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

This is true... its just the thread starters phrasing and extreme exuberance that causes the nails on a chalkboard response to the.... threat

Yup, agreed.

But sometimes we gotta be the adults in the room, if the thread starter is a lil adolescent at times.  There is some potential(not to the point that George thinks) here, so we watch for any positive developments and that’s all at this point.  

[DJln491]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

This is a Doug Flutie Hail Mary storm.

Flutie Flakes?

 

[George001]

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

Move it forward 48 hours.

I don’t buy that the ridge rolls over from that depiction.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is more consolidated with the trough. this is close

also less Pacific crap pouring onto the WC

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is more consolidated with the trough. this is close

also less Pacific crap pouring onto the WC

Not a good run 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Not a good run 

never said it was going to produce, but this is leaps and bounds better than 12z today

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Not a good run 

Bermuda says otherwise 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not a good run 

Yeah it still thinks the ridge rolls over

[George001]

Canadian looks improved with the ridge axis early on in the run

[Heisy]

Canadian looks improved with the ridge axis early on in the run

The old black and white maps still come out before anything else. It’s still out to sea unfortunately still ballpark as GFS


.

[brooklynwx99]

CMC nods to ECMWF with a deeper trough and the TPV trying to nudge into the backside of said trough