Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/21/2022 at 5:23 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

She gone 

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  On 12/21/2022 at 5:29 PM, dryslot said:

Before she came.

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If that’s the case…she’ll never be back.

[MJO812]

She's not gone yet

[weathafella]

  On 12/21/2022 at 5:21 PM, George001 said:

I’m not buying the gfs at all because it has the ridge rolling over. I could be wrong but I’m sticking to my guns, I’m convinced we see a drastic shift west on all guidance in 2-3 days. I’m all in on this threat, and plan to make a snow forecast tomorrow for this Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat.

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To quote Ronald Reagan....there you go again......

[dryslot]

  On 12/21/2022 at 5:58 PM, MJO812 said:

She's not gone yet

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But it is, Just like Carlos Correa is from the Giants.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro is still semi-interesting. Enough to not pull the life-support plug yet. But it's still a long shot.

[CoastalWx]

Can't go anywhere with the s/w getting side kicked from the Pacific. Too progressive.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/21/2022 at 6:35 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is still semi-interesting. Enough to not pull the life-support plug yet. But it's still a long shot.

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yeah I wouldn't kick the can on this one yet, but it'll be tough

totally sucks that this coming storm is going to be a day too early and this one likely a day too late. worst possible timing for both

[ORH_wxman]

You can see the ridge getting the top sliced off of it out west.....if we had that more amped, then we'd prob see a decent coastal system out of that trough....with the potential to phase in some of that PV energy.

[weathafella]

  On 12/21/2022 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the ridge getting the top sliced off of it out west.....if we had that more amped, then we'd prob see a decent coastal system out of that trough....with the potential to phase in some of that PV energy.

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If if if....I remember the old saying I'd hear my parents say..."balls said the queen, if I had them I'd be king"

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/21/2022 at 6:48 PM, ORH_wxman said:

You can see the ridge getting the top sliced off of it out west.....if we had that more amped, then we'd prob see a decent coastal system out of that trough....with the potential to phase in some of that PV energy.

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At hr 126 it looks really interesting, 12 hrs later it starts to get decapitated lol.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:00 PM, CoastalWx said:

At hr 126 it looks really interesting, 12 hrs later it starts to get decapitated lol.

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Ahh well…it was interesting for a day or two, just like this current one was. C

 

an’t seem to put anything together at all so far.  Always something to muck it up. 
 

Bye Bye to this one too. 

[weathafella]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:04 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ahh well…it was interesting for a day or two, just like this current one was. C

 

an’t seem to put anything together at all so far.  Always something to muck it up. 
 

Bye Bye to this one too. 

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This one was never more than a long shot.  I mean CMC gave a moderate storm for a few days.  As others have implied, shoveling fake cmc snow gets old.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:04 PM, WinterWolf said:

Ahh well…it was interesting for a day or two, just like this current one was. C

 

an’t seem to put anything together at all so far.  Always something to muck it up. 
 

Bye Bye to this one too. 

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i mean... you can know that something is unlikely but still holds some potential, so you can keep an eye on it while not expecting anything

that's the correct course of action here. probably not anything, but it's 5-6 days out and the pieces are there, so why not keep tabs on it. who knows. we've seen storms pop up from nothing in the 3-5 day range before and this is a highly amplified, blocky pattern

[Snowcrazed71]

Well I think someone else said this is well, but there's really nothing else to track after this coming storm for tomorrow and Friday. 

We're just picking at the scraps for now. Something really good will come, and this will all be forgotten. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:09 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... you can know that something is unlikely but still holds some potential, so you can keep an eye on it while not expecting anything

that's the correct course of action here. probably not anything, but it's 5-6 days out and the pieces are there, so why not keep tabs on it. who knows. we've seen storms pop up from nothing in the 3-5 day range before and this is a highly amplified, blocky pattern

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Yeah this is the view I'm taking on this. Unlikely to occur, but there's enough potential that keep half an eye on it and see if the ridge improves a bit or the spacing between the main shortwave and the PV.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:09 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean... you can know that something is unlikely but still holds some potential, so you can keep an eye on it while not expecting anything

that's the correct course of action here. probably not anything, but it's 5-6 days out and the pieces are there, so why not keep tabs on it. who knows. we've seen storms pop up from nothing in the 3-5 day range before and this is a highly amplified, blocky pattern

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I absolutely agree. And we should keep half an eye on it, and I know we will.
 

But we just can’t seem to catch a break lately…most everything that has “a chance”( whether a long shot or otherwise) can’t seem to make it into the shorter range with some improving trends.  The legs(no matter how short/small) get chopped out from under it before there’s a chance for it to get any closer than 6-7 days.  
 

Discouraging start to the season to say the least. 

[dryslot]

I've got a man on this, He told me he would continue to keep an eye on it for us.

[SJonesWX]

  On 12/21/2022 at 5:21 PM, George001 said:

I’m not buying the gfs at all because it has the ridge rolling over. I could be wrong but I’m sticking to my guns, I’m convinced we see a drastic shift west on all guidance in 2-3 days. I’m all in on this threat, and plan to make a snow forecast tomorrow for this Miller B nor’easter/blizzard threat.

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JFC George. STOP with the blizzard bullshit please.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is the view I'm taking on this. Unlikely to occur, but there's enough potential that keep half an eye on it and see if the ridge improves a bit or the spacing between the main shortwave and the PV.

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it is interesting how the EPS still maintains some very strong members off the EC... I'm assuming these were able to phase with the TPV

obviously a low chance of this, but I wish I could see how these members pull this off to see what to look for in future runs. seems very all-or-nothing

[ORH_wxman]

Well go with ensemble #4

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks good to me. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/21/2022 at 7:08 PM, weathafella said:

This one was never more than a long shot.  I mean CMC gave a moderate storm for a few days.  As others have implied, shoveling fake cmc snow gets old.

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But the CMC nailed the non blizzard, though...we knew that would happen because it entailed all of us bending over and grabbing our collective ankles.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/21/2022 at 8:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But the CMC nailed the non blizzard, though...we knew that would happen because it entailed all of us bending over and grabbing our collective ankles.

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OMG…so right and so true. 

[UnitedWx]

  On 12/21/2022 at 6:24 PM, weathafella said:

To quote Ronald Reagan....there you go again......

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Well.... he thought he was onto something. I am not going to make an issue of a fellow forum members youth and inexperience 

[George001]

  On 12/21/2022 at 8:49 PM, UnitedWx said:

Well.... he thought he was onto something. I am not going to make an issue of a fellow forum members youth and inexperience 

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Nothing has changed, I still believe in this threat. I am convinced the amplified pattern will not allow the ridge to roll over. If anything, my confidence in this threat has increased over the past couple of days. The h5 looks great.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/21/2022 at 10:53 PM, George001 said:

Nothing has changed, I still believe in this threat. I am convinced the amplified pattern will not allow the ridge to roll over. If anything, my confidence in this threat has increased over the past couple of days. The h5 looks great.

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Way to Stick by your convictions.  But That H5 look is a modeled look that may,  or may not be correct as well.  Keep that in mind.  

[weathafella]

I thought h5 looked like warmed over dogshit tbh.

[George001]

  On 12/21/2022 at 8:20 PM, SJonesWX said:

JFC George. STOP with the blizzard bullshit please.

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Obviously it’s not a guarantee, but the blizzard talk isn’t “bullshit”. If the ridge doesn’t roll over, that would allow the intense northern energy phase with the southern energy. This setup has a strong high to to the north, the contrast between the high and low pressure if the storm phases would lead to intense winds as well as heavy snow. There absolutely is blizzard potential if things come together for this threat.

[George001]

  On 12/21/2022 at 11:20 PM, weathafella said:

I thought h5 looked like warmed over dogshit tbh.

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Positive PNA, weakening negative NAO, northern energy diving down and the TPV in eastern Canada. Yeah it would be nice to see that blue near Alaska a bit more west, but overall I thought this looked great.

[weathafella]

  On 12/21/2022 at 11:28 PM, George001 said:

Positive PNA, weakening negative NAO, northern energy diving down and the TPV in eastern Canada. Yeah it would be nice to see that blue near Alaska a bit more west, but overall I thought this looked great.

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Move it forward 48 hours.