Dec 27th Miller B nor’easter threat

[Baroclinic Zone]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both GGEM and GFS kind of interesting.

Don't give George's thread title any more ammo.  GFS don't look like a Blizzard.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I get the frustration, I’m frustrated too. It sucks that Fridays storm is going to cut, but it is what it is. We got a lot of posters having big melts, myself included. There’s nothing wrong with expressing frustration, but there’s still 3 and a half months of winter left! Is this threat a slam dunk? No, but it’s a legitimate threat with a high ceiling. We track, then yes, it looks like a mild stretch is coming. However, we can get big snows in bad patterns especially in January, so the shades remain open. 

Just messing around George.  No worries starting the thread. Ya can’t do any worse than what just happened with the last one. Knock yourself out. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Don't give George's thread title any more ammo.  GFS don't look like a Blizzard.

Ahhh c’mon Bob…at this stage of defeat, it doesn’t matter much. Tips thread went south on us faster than a flash of lightening.  

[George001]

That is so close to a big solution, it barely misses the phase this run. The models have been trending west with the northern piece, if that phases in that low is not going out to sea. Not with the PNA ridge axis centered over Montana. The models often rush pattern changes, if the ridge breaks down just a bit slower than modeled right now we could have a slow moving Miller B on our hands.

[ORH_wxman]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Kind of" to me entails either nuisance crap, or slim odds of something significant. Shades still shut...

Yeah it's more like "maybe worth keeping half an eye on...."

It's not a honking threat at this point. It needs continued improvement.

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's more like "maybe worth keeping half an eye on...."

It's not a honking threat at this point. It needs continued improvement.

Well the Honking threat Honked right the hell out of here…so I’ll take lil improvements over time.  
 

All kidding aside…I hear ya Will.  Whatever the case, it’s a lil something to watch I guess. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian isn’t far from something decent. Too bad it’s on its own.

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it's more like "maybe worth keeping half an eye on...."

It's not a honking threat at this point. It needs continued improvement.

If only Scott would just say “it ain’t happening George “ then this threat would emerge clearly

[MJO812]

Euro looking more robust with the clipper so far

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF continues the improvements with the blocking as well as the +PNA ridging out west

[MJO812]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

ECMWF continues the improvements with the blocking as well as the +PNA ridging out west

Yep

[MJO812]

This is going to be close but I think it isn't  enough on this run. 

 

Big improvement though

[Heisy]

Euro looking more robust with the clipper so far

It did try this run, but won’t come through. Feel like that left over energy down S messing things up.


.

[MJO812]

Just now, Heisy said:

It did try this run, but won’t come through. Feel like that left over energy down S messing things up.


.

Big improvement from 0z

Stout pna ridge

[ORH_wxman]

There's some potential for phasing too with that southern stream vortmax....so there's reason to watch this for a cycle or three provided the main northern stream shortwave keeps showing up strong enough like we've seen trend today on 12z.

[brooklynwx99]

pretty easy to see how the block affects the entire waveguide here... it ends up strengthening the +PNA ridging, leading to much more amplified and meridional flow, as well as move the TPV SE into a more favorable area over the 50/50 region

[Heisy]

There's some potential for phasing too with that southern stream vortmax....so there's reason to watch this for a cycle or three provided the main northern stream shortwave keeps showing up strong enough like we've seen trend today on 12z.

Yes, if that southern vort slowed up a bit it could provide a nice front for a low to form as long as the diving S/W trends stronger/improved angle


.

[Cold Miser]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Big improvement from 0z

Stout pna ridge

Beer.

[Damage In Tolland]

River east threat as a very long shot 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

pretty easy to see how the block affects the entire waveguide here... it ends up strengthening the +PNA ridging, leading to much more amplified and meridional flow, as well as move the TPV SE into a more favorable area over the 50/50 region

 

Model guidance seems like it was way too fast breaking that block down during and just after the 12/23 event. Having it hang around gives another shot.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Model guidance seems like it was way too fast breaking that block down during and just after the 12/23 event. Having it hang around gives another shot.

it makes sense given the wave breaking that would occur given the insanely strong storm this week

i mean... how doesn't this force a west-based block?

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it makes sense given the wave breaking that would occur given the insanely strong storm this week

i mean... how doesn't this force a west-based block?

 

Right....previous runs were just having the storm bully itself into the block and push it out eastward instead of positive feedback and pushing it west. The latter scenario makes more sense meteorologically....esp considering the heights are already quite high up there. That could also change some of the looks we see post-12/27 as a block around Hudson Bay will try and promote split flow.

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If only Scott would just say “it ain’t happening George “ then this threat would emerge clearly

He did…he said close the shades for a couple weeks…it’s the same thing. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

He did…he said close the shades for a couple weeks…it’s the same thing. 

Still closed. Maybe a weenie eyeball poking out. 

[CoastalWx]

I’m not a fan of the Pacific giving that trough a Chun-lee spin star kick into the back of it. Canada did improve to try to make it interesting, but I think the Pacific needs to slow down a bit.

[dryslot]

Maybe we should just keep a blind on everything going forward.

[Heisy]

I’m not a fan of the Pacific giving that trough a Chun-lee spin star kick into the back of it. Canada did improve to try to make it interesting, but I think the Pacific needs to slow down a bit.

Yea that’s definitely a thorn in this setup. Would like to see one of the globals show a hit by 12z tomorrow and some potential on EPS.

OT but god I wish I could chase this LES in Buffalo. Of course it falls right near and around Xmas


.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not a fan of the Pacific giving that trough a Chun-lee spin star kick into the back of it. Canada did improve to try to make it interesting, but I think the Pacific needs to slow down a bit.

Yeah that is working against the threat because it's de-amplifying the western ridge as the system approaches the east coast....you typically want the opposite where the western ridge is building. Now if it can trend to holding the line for another 12 hours, then I think we'd be in business.

[Sled]

George is the best met to listen to on here, I'll never be under prepared for a storm, or not a storm for that matter.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that is working against the threat because it's de-amplifying the western ridge as the system approaches the east coast....you typically want the opposite where the western ridge is building. Now if it can trend to holding the line for another 12 hours, then I think we'd be in business.

Definitely more interesting on the 12z runs.