WesternFringe Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 28 minutes ago, IronTy said: Like I said, same with insomnia, the harder you try the less likely it is to happen. You have to let go your desires and then you will be rewarded. I'm still trackin' the SER though. Okay, keep us posted. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhatStorm Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Remember that well. Actually, January '78 is the time I remember. We were supposed to of gotten in in the great Ohio Valley Blizzard of '78. Warnings were up. I also remember that. Was the year I graduated. Due to continuous storms were were off the entire month of January as well as part of February. Mover HS graduation to late June 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Pretty much sums this up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 WB 3K NAM coming in colder for far NW on first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM coming in colder for far NW on first wave. Looking at the soundings on pivotal it would be a ~2 hr period of snow even for the immediate NW suburbs if 3K is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM coming in colder for far NW on first wave. Not just colder. Both NAMs are wetter too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 RGEM more bullish as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not just colder. Both NAMs are wetter too More interesting as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: You couldn't pay me to camp in that kind of weather. Hey the igloos at mountain state are warm n toasty. Does that count as camping? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Anything to break this silly calm BORING weather! I'm OK with tomorrow as I will be outside all day. As for camping, winter camping, nothing like it but a GOOD sleeping bag is ESSENTIAL! And the winds and wind chills, definitely would have the woodstove in the tent roaring! Waiting for the FLASH FREEZE. I know we should get something. Will be fun doing donuts in the trails with the four wheelers but it's always better with a few inches or more of snow on top of that super hard ice. If we lose mains (power) wife is gonna be pissed because the EDG is OFFLINE due to parts not being readily available and the smaller genny isn't enough to run everything in the house. Beats freezing to death I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze? Friday Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 17. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze? Friday Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 17. When it comes to snow our region lends itself to ambiguous forecasts better than anywhere else…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Am probably mistaken but it looked like the 18z nam threw in the possibility of a few post frontal flakes. Not sure what the gfs is still smoking but it’s fun to imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 WB 18Z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: When it comes to snow our region lends itself to ambiguous forecasts better than anywhere else…. Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Carmageddon III? I remember II very well, Jan 26, 2011. And for us, the thump came completely by surprise! House never had such an impressive row of icicles, looked like something out of Day After Tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places. But it won’t melt..whatever it is…that seems like a distinct possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 18Z GFS, continued small favorable trends over the last 6-7 runs. Finally to the point of getting 2 full frames of frozen precip on the back side here in ChesCo PA. Now, I may be wrong, but from what I’m seeing it seems that these favorable trends seem to coincide with a delay in the LP really wrapping up. “Bombing” as the kids say. Is there any truth to that? Feedback appreciated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: But it won’t melt..whatever it is…that seems like a distinct possibility We take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Solution Man said: We take Just a car topper…a smidge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It won’t take much to f up the roads. Plenty of moisture and no pretreatment. It’ll depend on the drop in temperature, and I feel like that’s always overmodeled. But I won’t tell HoCo that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 GFS still looks decent for some widespread snow showers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 16 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Carmageddon III? I remember II very well, Jan 26, 2011. And for us, the thump came completely by surprise! House never had such an impressive row of icicles, looked like something out of Day After Tomorrow! This is a completely different set up. In 2011 the upper level vort passed just to our south making it a nearly perfect vort passage. There was crazy dynamics with that storm.. but it was a more of a "standard" set up with a storm passing just to our south. This is anafront snow. And in order for anafront snow to work a lot of things need to come together perfectly. Many times the models will over due these ingredients and show accumulating snow for our region but once it comes we wind up seeing only flurries on the back side of a front. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS still looks decent for some widespread snow showers. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: This Absolutely been steadfast showing light accumulation for us. Hopefully we can get some other guidance on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 24 minutes ago, BristowWx said: But it won’t melt..whatever it is…that seems like a distinct possibility There’s a 30% chance that the snow rain or ice will accumulate to somewhere between 0.1 and 3.0 inches, but only a 50% chance of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, grhqofb5 said: There’s a 30% chance that the snow rain or ice will accumulate to somewhere between 0.1 and 3.0 inches, but only a 50% chance of that. 70% of the time it works every time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 So between 1 to 4pm Friday the low which meanders for over a day suddenly shoots 300 miles to the east in 3 hours by 4pm and is a baro of 28.70. Going to be a whole new adventure witnessing that! That arctic front that pasted us about 10 years ago looks similar to this one. A low in the lakes as opposed to drier high pressure driven frontal passage with a temperature profile of like 55 at 11am, 30 by 5pm, 20 by midnight and a low of 13. All the while, with that depicted 970 inland hurricane, 30mph winds around DC gusting to 50. If it can’t snow it can at least be rowdy windy cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Absolutely been steadfast showing light accumulation for us. Hopefully we can get some other guidance on board. I have been reading up on Anafront snow events and the key ingredient is the speed and direction of the forward motion of the front along with the wind direction behind the front. With a slower moving front and wind direction behind the front oriented perpendicular to the cold front, there is a local zone which can still produce enough "lift" in the atmosphere to produce precipitation. I would need someone who knows what they are talking about to explain better, but my suspicion is that the blocking to our north and east slows the system down enough to produce the anafront anomaly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I saw a drop from 50 to 8 in about 4 hours in 1977. Blizzard warning with a forecast of 1” or less of snow. I think precisely that may have been the one day in Jan 77 where daytime highs were above average ranging 45-50 and then bang right back into the deep freeze for rest of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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