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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, high risk said:

The models have done a lot of aspects of this frontal passage well, but one struggle has been how quickly the temps drop behind the front, and that had huge implications for potential for the flash freeze.     Even all of the 12Z models today show me in the low 20s by 11AM, but it's still 28 here.   If you look at HRRR trends, it took a long time to catch on to the idea that the big drop would be delayed.

Fully agree, and it is a very common occurrence around here.  That said, there was so much rain that the ground is still “leaking”.  I think at least the sidewalks will get real dicey once we get to 4-5pm.

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14 minutes ago, high risk said:

The models have done a lot of aspects of this frontal passage well, but one struggle has been how quickly the temps drop behind the front, and that had huge implications for potential for the flash freeze.     Even all of the 12Z models today show me in the low 20s by 11AM, but it's still 28 here.   If you look at HRRR trends, it took a long time to catch on to the idea that the big drop would be delayed.

I'm down in the mid 20's but the flash freeze ain't happening. The sun has broken out and between that, the warm ground temps ahead of the front and all of the wind helping to dry things out, it's a no-go. I don't think I've ever seen a single flash freeze in my lifetime. Can't say that I mind. It's really not my thing. I was always just interested in the snow potential with this.

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14 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Building collapse in Wesminster at the Verizon store on Baltimore Blvd. Fire department confirming significant structural damage from wind.

Carroll Fire Wire

Command holding with two and one placing the ATR rescue in service
Command advising they have a large portion of the building on top of a car significant damage to the building
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1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

92,000+ customers without power in VA now and rapidly climbing. 

Curious which source you use?  From the DOM web site, they currently have 77,700+ customers out.   Albeit DOM does not provide service to all of VA.  They had about 2K out as of 0800.  

For those who don't have it already, here's the link to the DOM outage map

https://outagemap.dominionenergy.com/external/default.html   

 

 

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19 minutes ago, high risk said:

The models have done a lot of aspects of this frontal passage well, but one struggle has been how quickly the temps drop behind the front, and that had huge implications for potential for the flash freeze.     Even all of the 12Z models today show me in the low 20s by 11AM, but it's still 28 here.   If you look at HRRR trends, it took a long time to catch on to the idea that the big drop would be delayed.

This is pretty close to what the models were splitting out for Garrett yesterday for this time.  Ignore the wind readings as anemometer is broken.  Legit upslope here, winter doesn’t get much deeper than this.

DB20FF55-EE64-497F-987D-B9F782DBB99A.png

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10 minutes ago, RDM said:

Curious which source you use?  From the DOM web site, they currently have 77,700+ customers out.   Albeit DOM does not provide service to all of VA.  They had about 2K out as of 0800.  

For those who don't have it already, here's the link to the DOM outage map

https://outagemap.dominionenergy.com/external/default.html   

 

 

A lot of the media outlets post this one:

https://poweroutage.us/

 

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11 minutes ago, RDM said:

Curious which source you use?  From the DOM web site, they currently have 77,700+ customers out.   Albeit DOM does not provide service to all of VA.  They had about 2K out as of 0800.  

For those who don't have it already, here's the link to the DOM outage map

https://outagemap.dominionenergy.com/external/default.html   

 

 

https://poweroutage.us

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6 minutes ago, RIC_WX said:

This is pretty close to what the models were splitting out for Garrett yesterday for this time.  Ignore the wind readings as anemometer is broken.  Legit upslope here, winter doesn’t get much deeper than this.

     I should have clarified that the model struggles with the temperature drop were east of the mountains.... which makes sense.

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13 minutes ago, high risk said:

     I should have clarified that the model struggles with the temperature drop were east of the mountains.... which makes sense.

Every model in history has overestimated the speed of cold air going through the mountains.  It's just something that has to be manually corrected for.  Not sure why they can't get those physics right.  But overall this front seems to have been well-modeled from range.

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4 hours ago, George BM said:

Interested in what precip type @Round Hill WX and @midatlanticweather are getting with this line.

I had a couple too many beers last night and slept right thru the line. Haha. Woke up to the wind just after it passed. We lost power for about 2 hours but back on now. Down to 19.

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