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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
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10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

hrrr just keeps getting better and better for tomorrow. not sure why is there is some zr bc the whole column is below freezing so best to ignore that and think of it as snow1671804000-ChCmHjSrM4k.png

Really need what the GFS was spitting out a couple of days ago for my location (a nice straight wall of precip on a N/S axis). This just looks too dried up. Other models are even drier. At this point I'd take .25 of accumulation, but even that is probably not happening. 

Sigh. 

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18 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Really need what the GFS was spitting out a couple of days ago for my location (a nice straight wall of precip on a N/S axis). This just looks too dried up. Other models are even drier. At this point I'd take .25 of accumulation, but even that is probably not happening. 

Sigh. 

how is that dry lmao, literal 40 dbz snow on changeover. if you can't enjoy that, you should move to buffalo bc your expectations are way too high. 

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Just now, anotherman said:


Not for a few days, at least.

Anything that sticks won't melt, but the moment the precip changes to snow won't be the moment it starts sticking. Temperature will be dropping rapidly for sure, but the ground needs to get cold enough and that will take some time. Without some sustained precip behind the front we get zero accumulations. Northern locations probably do get some accumulations because they are going to get more precip per the models. For us down by DC it's not looking great - perhaps a burst changeover to snow and then that's a wrap. Things could change, but it doesn't look great. 

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is about as close to 83 as we will ever see. Incredibly anomalous December cold incoming.

 

 gfs_T2m_neus_7.png

 

We chatted 83 earlier, I was driving from DC to Salisbury.     I stood in shade 10 feet away from choptank  and faced the wind and thought “this is what it’s like to die “

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Just now, WEATHER53 said:

We chatted 83 earlier, I was driving from DC to Salisbury.     I stood in shade 10 feet away from choptank  and faced the wind and thought “this is what it’s like to die “

I remember 83 because I got a new bike for Christmas. I stepped out the door to ride it and thought I was going to die as well. Basically 5 minutes and you were done. It was -7 degrees at my house that morning. Just for reference of how special that December cold spell was. January sucked real bad. Cold and dry. Hopefully we dont repeat. 

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Looking at radar in WV, front seems to be fairly active, would expect some hail and thunder followed by a few minutes of snow in some parts of the lowlands, a coating of snow across nMD before the strong winds set in, blowing that around. Bright sunshine to follow will not help make driving any easier, and icy patches on some roads quite likely as there could be .10" rain or sleet falls ahead of the fast temp drop. Temps down to 5-10 F by Saturday morning. 

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6 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

That is insane. I love the Choptank. Best crabs on earth come from that river. And no one can even think about changing my mind on that.  I am a torn individual. I live in the VA mountains during the winter. Which is usually amazing. I live in OC during the summer. Which is usually amazing. I got convinced as a young guy that there really isnt a better place to live than the Mid Atlantic. We have real seasons. All of us live 2 hours within the mountains or beach. All of us can get up in the morning and visit some of the finest museums in the world before noon. Then decide to be at the beach by dinner time. It is an amazing place to live. 

Miles and Wye river crabs though...

I will say the best blue crabs on earth come from the rivers on the eastern shore of MD.

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Snippets from Mount Holly AFD this AM-

A strong line of showers is expected to accompany right along or just ahead of the front as it passes through. Also, there will be another surge of southerly winds in tandem with a 50-70 knot low level jet ahead of the front. All of this will be in response to the incredible amount of forcing and energy this system will have. Expect the front to move through the area quickly with it likely arriving in our western zones by around 8-9am, the I-95 metro around 10-11am, and then clearing the coast in the early afternoon. Expect there will be widespread winds gusting 40-50 mph through the day Friday, first out of the south ahead of the front and then sharply turning westerly behind it. The aforementioned line of showers along the front may be able to tap into the accelerated winds not far off the surface and mix down some higher gusts in the 50-60 mph range increasing the threat for wind damage and power outages. Right on the backside of the front, hi-res guidance and model soundings are favoring a transition from rain to a quick burst of snow as the temperatures plummet below freezing.

The other concern we ave associated with the rapid introduction of a very cold airmass is the potential for a quick freezing of wet surfaces causing widespread icy conditions. One factor we may have in our favor to combat a significant flash freeze is the few hours of precip-free conditions leading up to the frontal passage, thus surfaces may not have a lot of antecedent moisture. It is also possible that there may be a brief time lag between the frontal passage/rain and when temperatures plunge below freezing; a short timespan between those two occurrences coupled with elevated winds may allow some surfaces to dry and limit freezing potential. But with all that said, the potential for dangerous, icy conditions and slick surfaces is certainly there and we will continue to closely monitor through the morning. By late day, as temperatures continue to plunge, dangerously cold conditions will become the primary hazard. So all in all, still expecting a wild day weather-wise. It`s worth noting that the combined impacts of any power outages due to the strong winds plus the extreme cold to follow could be significant.

 

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