MDstorm Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS has the front pushing through the metros right around 9a. It appears that the GFS has not waffled at all this week in its depiction of the anafrontal snow............said no one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: hrrr just keeps getting better and better for tomorrow. not sure why is there is some zr bc the whole column is below freezing so best to ignore that and think of it as snow Really need what the GFS was spitting out a couple of days ago for my location (a nice straight wall of precip on a N/S axis). This just looks too dried up. Other models are even drier. At this point I'd take .25 of accumulation, but even that is probably not happening. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 18 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Really need what the GFS was spitting out a couple of days ago for my location (a nice straight wall of precip on a N/S axis). This just looks too dried up. Other models are even drier. At this point I'd take .25 of accumulation, but even that is probably not happening. Sigh. how is that dry lmao, literal 40 dbz snow on changeover. if you can't enjoy that, you should move to buffalo bc your expectations are way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: how is that dry lmao, literal 40 dbz snow on changeover. if you can't enjoy that, you should move to buffalo bc your expectations are way too high. Yeah it's going to melt though. Will be pretty to watch briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Still a balmy 51.8° In 21057 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Yeah it's going to melt though. Will be pretty to watch briefly. Not for a few days, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, anotherman said: Not for a few days, at least. Anything that sticks won't melt, but the moment the precip changes to snow won't be the moment it starts sticking. Temperature will be dropping rapidly for sure, but the ground needs to get cold enough and that will take some time. Without some sustained precip behind the front we get zero accumulations. Northern locations probably do get some accumulations because they are going to get more precip per the models. For us down by DC it's not looking great - perhaps a burst changeover to snow and then that's a wrap. Things could change, but it doesn't look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 This is about as close to 83 as we will ever see. Incredibly anomalous December cold incoming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is about as close to 83 as we will ever see. Incredibly anomalous December cold incoming. Colder at my house than Caribou. Ok. Why not! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Let’s say forvthe Washington Monument as location; T minus 8 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Let’s say forvthe Washington Monument as location; T minus 8 hours? Still hard to fathom no snow with that kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is about as close to 83 as we will ever see. Incredibly anomalous December cold incoming. We chatted 83 earlier, I was driving from DC to Salisbury. I stood in shade 10 feet away from choptank and faced the wind and thought “this is what it’s like to die “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Just now, WEATHER53 said: We chatted 83 earlier, I was driving from DC to Salisbury. I stood in shade 10 feet away from choptank and faced the wind and thought “this is what it’s like to die “ I remember 83 because I got a new bike for Christmas. I stepped out the door to ride it and thought I was going to die as well. Basically 5 minutes and you were done. It was -7 degrees at my house that morning. Just for reference of how special that December cold spell was. January sucked real bad. Cold and dry. Hopefully we dont repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Cooling off now... Down from 51 2 hours ago to 42 now. Was 47 at midnight. Going to be interesting to see if the drop for the day hits the record chart posted earlier by a red tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Looking at radar in WV, front seems to be fairly active, would expect some hail and thunder followed by a few minutes of snow in some parts of the lowlands, a coating of snow across nMD before the strong winds set in, blowing that around. Bright sunshine to follow will not help make driving any easier, and icy patches on some roads quite likely as there could be .10" rain or sleet falls ahead of the fast temp drop. Temps down to 5-10 F by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Baro down to 989 in southwest Garrett County. Never got above freezing with a ton of ice still on the trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 6 hours ago, clskinsfan said: That is insane. I love the Choptank. Best crabs on earth come from that river. And no one can even think about changing my mind on that. I am a torn individual. I live in the VA mountains during the winter. Which is usually amazing. I live in OC during the summer. Which is usually amazing. I got convinced as a young guy that there really isnt a better place to live than the Mid Atlantic. We have real seasons. All of us live 2 hours within the mountains or beach. All of us can get up in the morning and visit some of the finest museums in the world before noon. Then decide to be at the beach by dinner time. It is an amazing place to live. Miles and Wye river crabs though... I will say the best blue crabs on earth come from the rivers on the eastern shore of MD. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Temp of 46 at 5am. Wind ramping up some. 0.62" of rain so far. Not much at all overnight. Quite a bit less than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Snippets from Mount Holly AFD this AM- A strong line of showers is expected to accompany right along or just ahead of the front as it passes through. Also, there will be another surge of southerly winds in tandem with a 50-70 knot low level jet ahead of the front. All of this will be in response to the incredible amount of forcing and energy this system will have. Expect the front to move through the area quickly with it likely arriving in our western zones by around 8-9am, the I-95 metro around 10-11am, and then clearing the coast in the early afternoon. Expect there will be widespread winds gusting 40-50 mph through the day Friday, first out of the south ahead of the front and then sharply turning westerly behind it. The aforementioned line of showers along the front may be able to tap into the accelerated winds not far off the surface and mix down some higher gusts in the 50-60 mph range increasing the threat for wind damage and power outages. Right on the backside of the front, hi-res guidance and model soundings are favoring a transition from rain to a quick burst of snow as the temperatures plummet below freezing. The other concern we ave associated with the rapid introduction of a very cold airmass is the potential for a quick freezing of wet surfaces causing widespread icy conditions. One factor we may have in our favor to combat a significant flash freeze is the few hours of precip-free conditions leading up to the frontal passage, thus surfaces may not have a lot of antecedent moisture. It is also possible that there may be a brief time lag between the frontal passage/rain and when temperatures plunge below freezing; a short timespan between those two occurrences coupled with elevated winds may allow some surfaces to dry and limit freezing potential. But with all that said, the potential for dangerous, icy conditions and slick surfaces is certainly there and we will continue to closely monitor through the morning. By late day, as temperatures continue to plunge, dangerously cold conditions will become the primary hazard. So all in all, still expecting a wild day weather-wise. It`s worth noting that the combined impacts of any power outages due to the strong winds plus the extreme cold to follow could be significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 43 and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 1.1” of rain so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Front has passed, as expected an abrupt wind shift. Switched to snow immediately. Temps quickly rose from 29.3 to 35.4 immediately before fropa and are now 30.5 (dropping 0.2 degrees every 30 seconds or so). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Front is pushing through western PA. Washington, PA dropped 41 to 21 4:45a-6a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 42 when I woke up some rain around looks like about 1.54" so far....10-1 would have been a lovely snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Columbia 1.10" rainfall as of 6am Last nite 55 at midnight. 6am today 41° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2022 Author Share Posted December 23, 2022 All guidance except the euro puts most of MD and NoVA in the single digits by tonight and tomorrow morning. Euro keeps the single digits above the fall line or even a little more N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 16.9°, it definitely snowed think it still is, but it’s so windy I can’t tell how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 Blizzard conditions developing at Deep Creek. 26* and falling rapidly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, RIC_WX said: Blizzard conditions developing at Deep Creek. 26* and falling rapidly. Awesome watching it on my camera and the weather station. 25 and gusting in the upper 30s already. Enjoy this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 23, 2022 Share Posted December 23, 2022 That traffic cam out of Keysers Ridge looks pretty intense. Hope travelers are prepared...this batch of rain moving through now increases the chance of flash freezing on the roadways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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