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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
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Just now, Cobalt said:

Our epic pattern might be condensed into 5 minutes of +SN tomorrow, but that's all we could ask for given this past week of trends. An old fashioned snow squall would definitely help brighten the mood, the 18/19 and 14/15 winters had some great ones from what I can remember. 

Yep, even without any accumulations, it'll just be fun for the temp drop, wind, and snow flying in a squall.  We're supposed to get on the road to NJ between 9a-10a...may delay that a bit to enjoy my flizzard!

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7 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

LWX has the front moving through before daybreak there. By 8:00 a.m. winds are already gusting to almost 60 mph. Here’s the P&C forecast for Bittinger:

5FE72526-7B11-4374-8B6E-5CC83C421D98.thumb.jpeg.afc09dead26eb81dac6c65f53f94d88c.jpeg

 

Oh well, seen worse.  Number one rule of setting up camp on the mountain....whatever you do, don't let go of your sleeping bag until it's in the tent.  And thus the trip endith...

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17 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

LWX has the front moving through before daybreak there. By 8:00 a.m. winds are already gusting to almost 60 mph. Here’s the P&C forecast for Bittinger:

5FE72526-7B11-4374-8B6E-5CC83C421D98.thumb.jpeg.afc09dead26eb81dac6c65f53f94d88c.jpeg

 

Oh well, seen worse.  Number one rule of setting up camp on the mountain....whatever you do, don't let go of your sleeping bag until it's in the tent.  And thus the trip endith...

 

ETA, talked to my wife....now we're gonna leave at 4am based on your Intel. Thank you!!!!

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19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest forecast here has a low of 10 tomorrow night and a high of 22 on Sat. Legit cold for late Dec. A midday flizzard would be cool, and the latest guidance is still suggesting the possibility.

I tell ya, we get a solid 20 - 40 min of snow as things chill, definitely could see a cluster on the roads. Can't salt anything because of the rain.

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I tell ya, we get a solid 20 - 40 min of snow as things chill, definitely could see a cluster on the roads. Can't salt anything because of the rain.

Last legit flash freeze I experienced was way back in the mid 80s in Carroll County with the thundersnow along the strong cold front. Instant whiteout and rapid temp drop. Incredible.

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1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

Do you have a link to a source that lists what the warning hierarchy is to determine which color we see on the NWS map when multiple warnings/advisories are in place? Like, flash flood and tornado warnings will always be primary, but between a winter weather advisory and a wind chill advisory, for example, which one takes precedence on the map? Thanks in advance! 

I have wondered this for a long time. Anyone know?

1 hour ago, WVclimo said:

LWX has the front moving through before daybreak there. By 8:00 a.m. winds are already gusting to almost 60 mph. Here’s the P&C forecast for Bittinger:

Huge fan of the hourly forecast graph

 

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7 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

 

It looks like the HRRR is running 4-5 degrees colder than the other models, so 10 is a better forecast.  Still, a pretty good situation to get DCA low since we aren’t counting on radiational cooling.  
 

My lowest December temp since getting my station in 2011 is 13.  Should have no trouble beating that.

I'm thinking low to mid teens for me, but maybe it will overperform.  I think my Dec low since 2011 is 14-15.

DCA

SWLcBQi.png

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4 minutes ago, Kay said:

I have wondered this for a long time. Anyone know?

Huge fan of the hourly forecast graph

 

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

Do you have a link to a source that lists what the warning hierarchy is to determine which color we see on the NWS map when multiple warnings/advisories are in place? Like, flash flood and tornado warnings will always be primary, but between a winter weather advisory and a wind chill advisory, for example, which one takes precedence on the map? Thanks in advance! 

The most recently issued product is what is visible "on top". It's like layers on a sandwich. When the "top" product expires, then whatever is "underneath" becomes visible. For example: If NWS issues a Flood Watch at 10:00 am, then a Wind Advisory at 11:00 am, then Wind Advisory becomes visible on the WFO home page. This becomes messy during complicated, changeable storms like the one we are experiencing now, and NWS is aware of this. I've been on a few webinars and completed a few surveys about some possible changes to their interface, and what's potentially coming down the line looks good. I don't know anything else about the nitty gritty.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

The most recently issued product is what is visible "on top". It's like layers on a sandwich. When the "top" product expires, then whatever is "underneath" becomes visible. For example: If NWS issues a Flood Watch at 10:00 am, then a Wind Advisory at 11:00 am, then Wind Advisory becomes visible on the WFO home page. This becomes messy during complicated, changeable storms like the one we are experiencing now, and NWS is aware of this. I've been on a few webinars and completed a few surveys about some possible changes to their interface, and what's potentially coming down the line looks good. I don't know anything else about the nitty gritty.

Thanks EJ! It could use some help so that is good to hear.

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Carroll County schools are already closed tomorrow. It's ripping wind out there. Definitely a legit storm system. I love a good storm no matter the the type. 

They had a scheduled half day, correct?

On topic, the always consistent and correct hrrr still has a decent slug of moisture accompanying the front in the morning.

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