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December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM still warmer than other guidance. It is strange to see. 

I was literally just thinking the same thing looking at it. Very odd. Even the GFS is colder. Would be very weird for NAM to not examine the depth of the cad etc.. with its physics built in to handle events like this. 

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

If either of those verify, I'll do naked snow angels in the snow.  And be the jolliest asshole this side of the nut house.

Hard to believe the 6 to 8 but it really does look like a good thumping out your way for a while in the morning. Wouldn't be shocking to see 3 or 4 .

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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Moisture will increase gradually through early Thursday
morning. Wintry precipitation is expected to move from southwest
to northeast early Thursday morning. Cold air is expected to be
abundant across the area via cold air damming. Still expecting
the Potomac Highlands and western MD mountains to start as snow.
There remains uncertainty with when the transition to a wintry
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow occurs. There is
frontogenetical forcing increasing in the low to mid levels in
most numerical guidance. Current thinking is dynamic cooling
from heavy precip (QPF of 0.1-0.2" an hour) will allow for snow
to be the predominant precipitation type in this area through
the morning. The typical climo factors will be in play with an
easterly flow favoring more of a sleet/freezing rain forecast
for western Garrett County, MD given the subtle downsloping and
warming while snow/sleet is favored to the east.

 

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