WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, H2O said: Does he remember in less than a 500 word essay tho? How else can you summarize the synoptic environment that led up to the event and describe those 2 runs of the Eta that teased us with 2-4” forecasts before the NGM schooled it at 36 hours out? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2022 Author Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just woke up. Did I miss anything? It’s gonna snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just woke up. Did I miss anything? Some discussion about a 4-6 week 'thaw' due to hairspray from the 70s with CAPE joining the dark side and a bunch of 500 word diatribes indirectly referencing something that he isn't allowed to mention. Nope, didn't miss anything. Usual pre-January form around here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: About one out of every 1000 times the GFS advertises it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just woke up. Did I miss anything? You missed one of these … great big one 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The question is, when was the last time you even saw 2”?. This morning. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 6z NAM Nest was a good scenario for us. One interesting thing that has been happening is that the models have done away with the Friday morning warmth. Instead of the 50s, we are in the lower 40s before the front blasts through. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, paxpatriot said: It amazes me that more people haven’t blocked him (and a couple of others) by now. I just like to use the meme on him. Don’t get to use it often 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 The 6z NAM Nest was a good scenario for us. One interesting thing that has been happening is that the models have done away with the Friday morning warmth. Instead of the 50s, we are in the lower 40s before the front blasts through. Crazy how cold it is this week so far and how much colder it's going to be buy rain is still our main precip 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 54 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 6z NAM Nest was a good scenario for us. One interesting thing that has been happening is that the models have done away with the Friday morning warmth. Instead of the 50s, we are in the lower 40s before the front blasts through. 3k nam is damn! I'd take that in a heartbeat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: He made quite a name for himself in here last night. I think @mappy should 5 post that dude. Last night was bad. he posted late night when i was sleeping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 Well, ya can't blame this one on temps...The airmass this week is a classic one for a snowstorm. Buuuut...the pna...the track...the nina, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 56 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The 6z NAM Nest was a good scenario for us. One interesting thing that has been happening is that the models have done away with the Friday morning warmth. Instead of the 50s, we are in the lower 40s before the front blasts through. Crazy how cold it is this week so far and how much colder it's going to be buy rain is still our main precip Cold, then warms up to rain, then cold after. Story of my life in the mid atlantic since the late 70s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 2 hours ago, mappy said: When has an anafront ever given us snow? Every 4/5 years or so we do get some note worthy snow from an anafront setup. Problem us models like to hint at it all the time and there is no way to really know when it’s legit until very close range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: 3k nam is damn! I'd take that in a heartbeat. I should totally repost the “it’s happening” gif to wake up the ass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 he posted late night when i was sleeping. Who is this lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: How else can you summarize the synoptic environment that led up to the event and describe those 2 runs of the Eta that teased us with 2-4” forecasts before the NGM schooled it at 36 hours out? I’m on page 13 of my paper on how the models all busted warm in the Dec 30 1997 nor’easter then at the last minute teased us with a big snow, yet we still failed due to a tragic dryslot when there was slightly too much separation between the surface and mid level energy also totally missed by guidance. A double bust! The result was probably our best chance for a major snowfall that season ended up a general 1-3” across the area which would have been a win except one run right at game time teased bigger rewards. Because we need to know… 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 17 minutes ago, mappy said: he posted late night when i was sleeping. Who is this lol? @CentralVaNATS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, mappy said: he posted late night when i was sleeping. Who is this lol? A person who won’t be posting much in the future. 12 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6z 3K Nam would be nice. A couple of hours of snow before the arctic blast. Would probably be enough for a white christmas. I'd certainly be happy about it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 WWA up for the Winchester area if anyone besides me cares. 1-3 with 3-5 lollies. White Christmas chances looking better IMO. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 MDZ003-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ051>053-211700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0035.221222T0900Z-221222T2100Z/ Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible, especially west of Interstate 81. Ice accumulations around a trace to a tenth of an inch with localized amounts around a tenth to a quarter inch along the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m on page 13 of my paper on how the models all busted warm in the Dec 30 1997 nor’easter then at the last minute teased us with a big snow, yet we still failed due to a tragic dryslot when there was slightly too much separation between the surface and mid level energy also totally missed by guidance. A double bust! The result was probably our best chance for a major snowfall that season ended up a general 1-3” across the area which would have been a win except one run right at game time teased bigger rewards. Because we need to know… I remember that storm. That was the only legit snow we had that winter. We got other storms where it snowed in NC/SC but rained here at 33-36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: WWA up for the Winchester area if anyone besides me cares. 1-3 with 3-5 lollies. White Christmas chances looking better IMO. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 MDZ003-VAZ027>031-507-WVZ051>053-211700- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0035.221222T0900Z-221222T2100Z/ Washington-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 351 AM EST Wed Dec 21 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts around 3 to 5 inches possible, especially west of Interstate 81. Ice accumulations around a trace to a tenth of an inch with localized amounts around a tenth to a quarter inch along the Blue Ridge Mountains. * WHERE...Portions of north central Maryland, northwest Virginia and panhandle West Virginia. I care man! Ha! I do like the trend so far for temps to remain pretty much in the 30s west of the BR before the front moves through. Should be able to hold onto some snow cover if we can get a nice burst for a few hours. Typically, these things trend a bit colder and faster....as you know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 6z euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 12Z HRRR looks good. Some of this would be sleet verbatim. But anything frozen is going to turn into a glacier Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 NAM is way warmer. Kicks the frozen precip well west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 12Z HRRR looks good. Some of this would be sleet verbatim. But anything frozen is going to turn into a glacier Friday. That kinda sucks tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 6z euro anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: NAM is way warmer. Kicks the frozen precip well west this run. WB 12Z 3K NAM, another soaker for most with wave tomorrow, at least we are no longer in drought…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2022 Share Posted December 21, 2022 I'll have some thoughts on the snow potential for Friday AM sometime later today. At work this AM and busy contending with the arctic blast we'll be getting down this way. Looks like temps falling through the day tomorrow with a low between 5-8F on Friday morning. Brrrr 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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