December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill

[NorthArlington101]

Pulled from the latest AFD:

Quote

The other concern is for a period of snow associated with the
upper-level low Friday. There may be about a 1 to 3 hour period
with some snow behind the cold front. This is highly dependent
on the track of the closed upper-level low, which there is still
some uncertainty with. If the track is farther south in
latitude, that will increase the chances for this period of
snow. As of now, the best chance will be across northern and
central areas of the CWA (northern Shenandoah Valley, northern
VA, northern MD).

 

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, snowmagnet said:

NC has done better than us the past five years.  

I am assuming Mount Mitchell?  or probably northern North Carolina either way a sad state we are in when it comes to snow around these neck of the woods. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

Color me stupid but i have a feeling there are some changes to this thing still happening. Not necessarily saying anything positive for us but this mornings models seem to be a little different. Looks like Chicago is the new Mid Atlantic

The Earth must be shifting?

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

lol

I mean this could suggest some dynamic uplifting with thunderstorms turning from rain to snow quickly with gusty winds and snow and sleet bursting graupel maybe something I remember seeing in the middle 80's 1985 or 1986 one of those years. 

[SnowenOutThere]

The CMC has better backside snow than the 0z run

[WinterWxLuvr]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

The CMC has better backside snow than the 0z run

It’s better all around than it’s previous run. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z CMC has trended somewhat colder at the onset of the event Friday. Would imply some front end frozen north of I-70.

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

DCA:

SBY:

 

this is the type of thing I'd expect with a climate going haywire.  Should be an interesting day

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

this is the type of thing I'd expect with a climate going haywire.  Should be an interesting day

I saw a drop from 50 to 8 in about 4 hours in 1977. Blizzard warning with a forecast of 1” or less of snow.

[IronTy]

WSW hoisted for Meadow Mountain.  Sorry boys, I'll send you pics, assuming my phone works at zero degree temps.  

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WSW hoisted for Meadow Mountain.  Sorry boys, I'll send you pics, assuming my phone works at zero degree temps.  

Don't be sorry...what's the forecast? 

[mattie g]

31 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

this is the type of thing I'd expect with a climate going haywire.  Should be an interesting day

Wait...why would this be the result of any sort of climate change?

Arctic fronts bring in really cold air. Always have, always will...as the graphs in that tweet show.

[NorthArlington101]

EURO doesn’t quite look like the GFS but it has a clearer signal for a little backend snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO doesn’t quite look like the GFS but it has a clearer signal for a little backend snow.

"Windy with scattered snow showers. Accumulations an inch or less." Seems like a decent forecast.

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO doesn’t quite look like the GFS but it has a clearer signal for a little backend snow.

Check out the 850 winds at hr 78 on the Euro, 12z Friday. Looks like most of us are in a left exit region of the jet. Would at least support some decent snow showers or maybe even a period of light snow. By HR84, 18z Fri, there's another wind maxima over Baltimore metro, would aid in cold air advection and make for a pretty nasty afternoon. Heck, by 00z Sat, the Euro wants to bring low end High Wind Warning criteria gusts to the Mason-Dixon counties.

[GATECH]

Cold and wind, we do it so well in winter.  Can’t wait for my wind advisory!

[Daniel Boone]

46 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I saw a drop from 50 to 8 in about 4 hours in 1977. Blizzard warning with a forecast of 1” or less of snow.

Remember that well. Actually, January '78 is the time I remember. We were supposed to of gotten in in the great Ohio Valley Blizzard of '78. Warnings were up. 

[IronTy]

27 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Don't be sorry...what's the forecast? 

WSW says 4-6" snow w/ 1/4" of ice.  Low of 1F on Friday night and a high of 5F on Saturday.  Wind chills -25F.  Our campsite is right on top of the ridge above 3k ft so I expect we'll be on the high end of snow and wind, and low end of temps.   Gonna spend a lot of time in the sleeping bags I expect.  

[HighStakes]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WSW says 4-6" snow w/ 1/4" of ice.  Low of 1F on Friday night and a high of 5F on Saturday.  Wind chills -25F.  Our campsite is right on top of the ridge above 3k ft so I expect we'll be on the high end of snow and wind, and low end of temps.   Gonna spend a lot of time in the sleeping bags I expect.  

Weren't you just ready for Spring yesterday? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WSW says 4-6" snow w/ 1/4" of ice.  Low of 1F on Friday night and a high of 5F on Saturday.  Wind chills -25F.  Our campsite is right on top of the ridge above 3k ft so I expect we'll be on the high end of snow and wind, and low end of temps.   Gonna spend a lot of time in the sleeping bags I expect.  

Exactly what the Donner party thought … this might be fun!

[nj2va]

13 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WSW says 4-6" snow w/ 1/4" of ice.  Low of 1F on Friday night and a high of 5F on Saturday.  Wind chills -25F.  Our campsite is right on top of the ridge above 3k ft so I expect we'll be on the high end of snow and wind, and low end of temps.   Gonna spend a lot of time in the sleeping bags I expect.  

You couldn't pay me to camp in that kind of weather.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO doesn’t quite look like the GFS but it has a clearer signal for a little backend snow.

Euro is better with the front end over its 0z run.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

3 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

Color me stupid but i have a feeling there are some changes to this thing still happening. Not necessarily saying anything positive for us but this mornings models seem to be a little different. Looks like Chicago is the new Mid Atlantic

Widespread model fraud on this one- might be a lot of bagholders in Chicago as well now.

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Euro is better with the front end over its 0z run.

Euro would imply brief front end frozen threat similar to the 12z CMC/GFS. Right around sunrise Thursday.

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Euro would imply brief front end frozen threat similar to the 12z CMC/GFS. Right around sunrise Thursday.

Every model I’ve looked at has that front end snow/ice here for Thursday morning. 

[IronTy]

25 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Weren't you just ready for Spring yesterday? 

Like I said, same with insomnia, the harder you try the less likely it is to happen.  You have to let go your desires and then you will be rewarded.  I'm still trackin' the SER though.  

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Wait...why would this be the result of any sort of climate change?

Arctic fronts bring in really cold air. Always have, always will...as the graphs in that tweet show.

I think what he is trying to say is that climate change amplifies these events, not directly create them. 

[nw baltimore wx]

Gale Watch for the Bay is already up.  I'm going full weenie and thinking HoCo will close early on Friday.

[IronTy]

30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

You couldn't pay me to camp in that kind of weather.  

Let the record show who the true enthusiasts and weenies are.  When the rubber meets the road the enthusiasts are out becoming one with the elements vs. weenies riding each run of the model suites from the comfort of their living room hearths.  

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Let the record show who the true enthusiasts and weenies are.  When the rubber meets the road the enthusiasts are out becoming one with the elements vs. weenies riding each run of the model suites from the comfort of their living room earths.  

"One with the elements..."