Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Temperatures drop emphatically between 12-18Z Friday...from 50-55 to the mid-20s (there about) in the DC-Balt corridor. It looks even colder by 18Z Friday in this run compared to the last one but that's probably run-to-run noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: This would be thur pm to fri am, yes? . If you mean when the cold front blasts through...it's early afternoon Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Any snow is good before the holidays. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Looks like the wind is going away too! This system is worse than a dumpster fire. It's like a dumpster full of tires with some ketchup on the side! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Just now, Stormfly said: Looks like the wind is going away too! This system is worse than a dumpster fire. It's like a dumpster full of tires with some ketchup on the side! It could be 63 and sunny for Christmas. This is better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It could be 63 and sunny for Christmas. This is better. That’s right, enjoy this wonderful season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, Solution Man said: That’s right, enjoy this wonderful season We need to embrace our new normal. Mild rainy winters with brief cold snaps and occasionally some light snow if conditions are near perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 from twitter, throwing it in here because why not "Arctic Blast", I like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 FWIW, LWX mentioned the possibility of a brief period of anafrontal snow in their recent AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: We need to embrace our new normal. Mild rainy winters with brief cold snaps and occasionally some light snow if conditions are near perfect. Cool. You should probably delete your account. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 A crazy cold front with some snow on the back end would be pretty coo. I’m not going to pretend I’m not bummed out as hell about having days worth of GFS runs snowing on us and it ending like this, but I suppose it’ll just have to do. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: A crazy cold front with some snow on the back end would be pretty coo. I’m not going to pretend I’m not bummed out as hell about having days worth of GFS runs snowing on us and it ending like this, but I suppose it’ll just have to do. Don’t forget the upslope! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Don’t forget the upslope! Idk, it's not looking as lucrative as it once was. Hoping to get there sometime Friday mid day and get the tent set up before the temps really start to drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: We need to embrace our new normal. Mild rainy winters with brief cold snaps and occasionally some light snow if conditions are near perfect. Welcome to North Carolina! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: Idk, it's not looking as lucrative as it once was. Hoping to get there sometime Friday mid day and get the tent set up before the temps really start to drop. yeah, similar to this last weekend the track of the low isn’t ideal for optimizing upslope. We want it bombing out and heading N/NE of the area so the winds are coming straight out of the NW off the lakes. This has evolved into bombing out/decaying to our WNW before lifting NE. Will still have upslope but not nearly as much as what could have been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 hours ago, BristowWx said: It could be 63 and sunny for Christmas. This is better. Christmas 2015 was close to 70 and pouring. And not even a month later look what we got! This year we probably get the boot both ways. It's like a magnet with two south poles! Even more depressing is I just realized on this day in 2019 we were getting pummeled with our first storm of the amazing 09-10 winter. Found some videos. We got 19" from that system. And (of course) it was gone by Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stormfly said: Christmas 2015 was close to 70 and pouring. And not even a month later look what we got! This year we probably get the boot both ways. It's like a magnet with two south poles! Even more depressing is I just realized on this day in 2019 we were getting pummeled with our first storm of the amazing 09-10 winter. Found some videos. We got 19" from that system. And (of course) it was gone by Christmas! What can you do. We picked a hobby that we have no control over nor can we get better at it. It’s not golf or tennis. It’ll snow again. Weather is more like gambling. You win once lose 10 times after but keep coming back because you won once. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 DC goes from 50 at 10a Friday to 30 at 11a Friday on the GFS. That would be pretty remarkable. ~0.1” QPF falls in DC after 11a. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: DC goes from 50 at 10a Friday to 30 at 11a Friday on the GFS. That would be pretty remarkable. ~0.1” QPF falls in DC after 11a. I would take the 00z gfs in a heartbeat. A couple inches of snow with falling temps and windy conditions. Has 2 - 3 " along the M/D. To bad no other model is really showing that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would take the 00z gfs in a heartbeat. A couple inches of snow with falling temps and windy conditions. Has 2 - 3 " along the M/D. To bad no other model is really showing that. Hey, the GFS was right in the depiction of the NS SS in the Northwest for this storm in the face of every other model. A weenie can dream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 In terms of the cold, people are talking up some days with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s? That used to be routine... I do get that the worst of the cold will be well to our west (again), but still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Y’all aren’t falling for the gfs, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Y’all aren’t falling for the gfs, right? When was the last time it was wrong? Wait, don’t answer that… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Anybody with access to the GEFS individual members care to share the approximate southeastern extent of the ULL amongst the individuals at 18z and 0z. The past few runs have shifted this feature slightly further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 hours ago, nj2va said: yeah, similar to this last weekend the track of the low isn’t ideal for optimizing upslope. We want it bombing out and heading N/NE of the area so the winds are coming straight out of the NW off the lakes. This has evolved into bombing out/decaying to our WNW before lifting NE. Will still have upslope but not nearly as much as what could have been. would the recent east trends help in maximizing upslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: would the recent east trends help in maximizing upslope? See Nj2va post ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 WB 0Z GFS…SIGN ME UP!!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS…SIGN ME UP!!!! You’ll probably like the latest gfs lol. Euro improved also for some areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You’ll probably like the latest gfs lol. Euro improved also for some areas. WB 6Z GFS….. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Euro/CMC vs. GFS again? I'm just rooting for that little sliver of gray to shift north a bit for mby flizzard. CMC has it too and its even more pronounced. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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