WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Thread for anyone who wants to track highs in the 20s and possible flurries. This isn’t medium range anymore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 A burst of snow is very possible if not likely with this set up. Could be a quick 1-2 if not a bit more. There are actually quite a few examples of strong fronts that had a couple hours of snow on the other side of the front even into the cities. Notably 3/2005, 3/1995, 11/1995, 3/1999, 4 /2000 etc. As recent as last March saw heavy rain change to snow so it happens more frequently than realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The thing to watch is whether we can get an inch of snow east of the mountains with the arctic frontal passage. WB 6Z GEFS says it is possible… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 A period of anafrontal snow is definitely on the table. It's also worth watching to see how warm we get ahead of the front and the timing. GFS right now actually shows some instability for areas east of the Potomac, and with intense winds above the surface and strong shear, a low-topped convective line with damaging wind and perhaps a few brief spinnies would be possible. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Bring on the snownadoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I only care what the NAM shows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, high risk said: A period of anafrontal snow is definitely on the table. It’s usually on the table in these setups a few days out on the models. It ends up on the floor like Ralphie’s turkey, shredded to pieces by the dogs. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 19 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s usually on the table in these setups a few days out on the models. It ends up on the floor like Ralphie’s turkey, shredded to pieces by the dogs. 100% chance we get only a brief flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: The thing to watch is whether we can get an inch of snow east of the mountains with the arctic frontal passage. WB 6Z GEFS says it is possible… These maps are lol. The very rare anafrontals that ever work out for anyone only workout for areas east of the Blue Ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Warm rain, frozen mud, and shredded Christmas decorations scattered over the property. Hooray. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 WB 12Z GFS, front faster this run moving through early Friday afternoon. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 12Z GFS is notably faster with the frontal passage than the 06Z (and 00Z) cycle showed. It's through by 18Z Friday. 12Z: 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest. It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more. I've seen threads started for FAR less than this. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest. It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more. I've seen threads started for FAR less than this. It'll be interesting to watch for sure. I'll be right by the window for this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. I assume the snow algorithms are just having a tough time with the speed of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Oooo. The downsloping snow hole in my back yard! West to east thunderstorms do this to. I am not sure if this is just a resolution gap, typical f such a scenario, but I swear this happens out my way in summer storms too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. you seem new here. we start threads for rain. its okay. let people act however excited they want to be. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Honestly, this will be something to outcast Friday am but it is better than moping about what could have been… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Oooo. The downsloping snow hole in my back yard! West to east thunderstorms do this to. I am not sure if this is just a resolution gap, typical f such a scenario, but I swear this happens out my way in summer storms too! Everything about that map screams temporal resolution problems. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I still wouldn't get too excited about this. I mean, we can't even trust the models beyond 3 days right now, and anafront snows are very rare here. Desperate, excited? What's a word between friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I can say this with 100% accuracy, nobody on here and no model knows exactly what will happen with this storm. Weather gonna do what weather gonna do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, mappy said: you seem new here. we start threads for rain. its okay. let people act however excited they want to be. I'm back after a decade's hiatus, so yeah I might as well be new here. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I seriously don't think anyone is overly "excited" about this, to be honest. It's just interesting from a meteorological standpoint no matter if we get nothing, a couple of flakes, or a bit more. I've seen threads started for FAR less than this. This is how I feel (and anyone can feel how they want obviously). Not really gonna have IMBY performance metrics on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Honestly, this will be something to outcast Friday am but it is better than moping about what could have been… Outcast is the perfect word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Outcast is the perfect word This is the only thing going on this week…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 I’m not saying it will happen, but I think the TT and Pivotal snow plots are “real”. Snow behind an arctic front is pretty common with this sort of dynamics. This is the juiciest I’ve seen it though yet. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 I will say this … a low basically stuck in and around Chicago would be more likely to allow this to happen than one racing north just west of the Apps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 smells like waffles up in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I can say this with 100% accuracy, nobody on here and no model knows exactly what will happen with this storm. Weather gonna do what weather gonna do 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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