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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

there was a pretty dramatic improvement in the confluence ahead of the storm, but i’m sorry that you’re too dense to notice :( 

So many times I wanted to comment and react to his posts ( and I have before ), but I've stopped doing that.

All the guy cares about is trying to make other people feel bad. He is like that bully who loves to break people down to mask is own unhappiness. It just goes to show you what kind of life he's is living. 

Let him bask in his own sunshine/darkness.

Can't fix that

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS has a good amount of nrn stream energy, but confluence kicks out quick. Canadian keeps the confluence around.

GFS also digs the trough into Florida.

 

Where's the southeast ridge all the experts were telling me was there when we need? :(

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I usually don't comment at this lead time, but the day 7/8 event is (currently) terrible odds for big snows outside Maine and far interior of NNE. 

Even with an early occlusion and favorable H5 low track (south of New England) and 1040 mb high in QC, end up with a big rainer for most. That's your CLEAR warning. You've basically seen the best result (output) of this setup for snow, and the ultimate outcome is still WARM.

The confluence is +NAO based and therefore fleeting. Consistent red flags on this.

So, if things tilt more progressive -- then what? An end to end soaker. 

Happy tracking.

 

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I usually don't comment at this lead time, but the day 7/8 event is (currently) terrible odds for big snows outside Maine and far interior of NNE. 

Even with a tucked solution and 1040 mb high in QC, end up with a big rainer for most. That's your CLEAR warning. You've basically seen the best result (output) of this setup for snow, and the ultimate outcome is still WARM.

The confluence is +NAO based and therefore fleeting. Consistent red flags on this.

So, if things tilt more progressive -- then what? An end to end soaker. 

Happy tracking.

 

Even with tucked solution it rains? Most don’t want tucked storms anytime, usually that means mix or rain for SNE or ENE.  The threat is thread the needle for everyone from the Mid-Atlantic to Maine. 

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Even with tucked solution it rains? Most don’t want tucked storms anytime, usually that means mix or rain for SNE or ENE.  The threat is thread the needle for everyone from the Mid-Atlantic to Maine. 

It would be nice just to see snow fall and accumulate in January of all months. But one thing that seems certain, 1 inch or 1 ft, it all melts pretty quickly with the warmup that follows. Hopefully shuffling the deck for the second half of January....

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6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Even with tucked solution it rains? Most don’t want tucked storms anytime, usually that means mix or rain for SNE or ENE.  The threat is thread the needle for everyone from the Mid-Atlantic to Maine. 

You're right that it is confusing the way I wrote that. I edited it.

But what I meant was a track with an early H5 occlusion that slides south of New England (generally favorable to snow) still ends up WARM.

 

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Even with tucked solution it rains? Most don’t want tucked storms anytime, usually that means mix or rain for SNE or ENE.  The threat is thread the needle for everyone from the Mid-Atlantic to Maine. 

You know the old saying…”better to keep one’s mouth shut, and be thought a dummy, than open it and remove all doubt!”   That applies to some here. 

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2 hours ago, NW_of_GYX said:

They're going to lose at least a month of their riding season the way it looks right now. I don't even know why the local clubs bother down here anymore. They are constantly losing access, putting in hours and hours of work for riding seasons that are lasting a month at best. The last club meeting I went to was 90% gray hair. The sport is dying down here. 

Still some hope for next weekend but no end in sight to AN temps. 

 

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago.

I honestly have no idea how Windham, Gray, Winterport, etc can justify having a snowmobile club anymore when like you guys said it barley lasts 3 weeks a season. We only groom on average 10 weeks and looks like it is gonna be more like 7 this year north of the 45. Did manage 60 miles prior to the New Years rain to try out the Lynx, 3rd worst start to the season for me since 2009. Hopefully it turns around, might try to get a few more miles tomorrow after our 4-6 inches yesterday, but at least I got my Quebec season pass worst case, but outside of Mt Valin there is hardly any riding up there.

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