NW_of_GYX Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I really feel bad for the folks in Northern Maine, There taking it on the chin with the lack of snow up there. They're going to lose at least a month of their riding season the way it looks right now. I don't even know why the local clubs bother down here anymore. They are constantly losing access, putting in hours and hours of work for riding seasons that are lasting a month at best. The last club meeting I went to was 90% gray hair. The sport is dying down here. Still some hope for next weekend but no end in sight to AN temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 No overnight… that little critter for the 9th did come back in the models. This is no declaration as to it success… but there is a presentation there. … a minor ordeal that favors southern zone as it were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 27 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: They're going to lose at least a month of their riding season the way it looks right now. I don't even know why the local clubs bother down here anymore. They are constantly losing access, putting in hours and hours of work for riding seasons that are lasting a month at best. The last club meeting I went to was 90% gray hair. The sport is dying down here. Still some hope for next weekend but no end in sight to AN temps. There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 What the MJO is doing right now has nothing to do with whatever’s happening 12th-16th. That’s A B, there are other factors far more powerful in dictating the mid latitude hemisphere for temperature distribution. The MJO’ is not one of those. C, the MJO “might” contribute… Or assist in modulating the pattern out in time – and there is absolutely a lag correlation. But it does not drive the pattern. Frankly it’s a little bit odd that this MJO wave is modeled to do what it’s doing in the first place, given to the antecedent an ongoing climate footprint But, climate like rules are certainly meant to be broken from time to time… And I can’t think of a better time than during climate change for that to occur - as a bit of snark humor lol MJO either constructively interferes or destructively interferes… And depending on which determines how much a given wave’s modulation can actually occur. The hemispheres might be receptive (constructive) with the MJO in phase 8 – 1 -2, just based on the uncouple La Niña state of the Pacific - which is not only looking more Nino like, it’s doing so rather violently… Which is a whole nother complex conjecture. But if so it would be later than next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Both nw and Ne hills should be able to grab 1-3” this afternoon/ eve That's not happening. Gil on WTNH has this over with by early afternoon. Even Bob on NBC said he thinks that it's not coming together like the miles showed yesterday. So maybe some showers this afternoon or rain or snow. I don't think you're getting you're getting your 1"-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: That's not happening. Gil on WTNH has this over with by early afternoon. Even Bob on NBC said he thinks that it's not coming together like the miles showed yesterday. So maybe some showers this afternoon or rain or snow. I don't think you're getting you're getting your 1"-3" We don’t need to watch the news on tv to know when a storm ends. We all have access to up to the minute guidance and radars. NECT may snow til 5-6pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: No overnight… that little critter for the 9th did come back in the models. This is no declaration as to it success… but there is a presentation there. … a minor ordeal that favors southern zone as it were. Yeah that could be a sneaky little event for many. Sometimes in these God awful patterns it's those systems that end up producing. I think several have said this over the course of the past few weeks, but in these patterns sometimes little systems can sneak up on you with 2-3 day lead time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 20 minutes ago, dryslot said: We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago. Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient. In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after. It happens. We wait for now. It will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient. In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after. It happens. We wait for now. It will come. Ice conditions are treacherous up here, That really needs to be addressed as most trail systems are very reliant on water crossing with their trails, We need an extended period of arctic cold and i don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 41 minutes ago, dryslot said: I really feel bad for the folks in Northern Maine, There taking it on the chin with the lack of snow up there. Terrible in the Aroostook River Valley, but the trails south and west from Fort Kent should be oaky - looks like 12-20" above 1000'. That's well below average but still plenty to groom. Jackman/Pittston Farm also with that 12-20. Not great but not yet a 2006 disaster, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago. My neighbor, who generally runs the local club's groomer, is probably about 60 - just a pup from my viewpoint but symbolic of what you said. Both of the big December storms were disasters for the sledders - first one dumped trees all over some trails then the big rain wrecked the snow. Neighbor ran the groomer the day after the deluge to even out things a bit, but the subsequent warmth has made the trail unusable. His 12/24 run half-pulled a 200 lb (I thought) rock on a high point. Because that rock was positioned to damage the drag, day before yesterday I walked out there with sledge and crowbar. I got the rock loose and partially lifted but that only showed me that 200 was actually more like 400 and I had to give up. Hope he can use the partially elevated position to safely push that rock to the side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 GFS getting a little closer for Monday. That's some good WAA way out ahead...wouldn't shock me if that initial stuff was a little more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GFS getting a little closer for Monday. That's some good WAA way out ahead...wouldn't shock me if that initial stuff was a little more north. Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: I really feel bad for the folks in Northern Maine, There taking it on the chin with the lack of snow up there. it certainly started off good in Nov and early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours. Yeah after I posted that, it wrapped up SE of the Cape lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS getting a little closer for Monday. That's some good WAA way out ahead...wouldn't shock me if that initial stuff was a little more north. Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh, that's getting close to something good. Seems like it's going to be a tease though....but who knows, we've seen worse trend strongly inside of 84 hours. Was just about to post. Unlike today, I’ve liked the trend for that one, even though all these signals are conditional. That one is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 47 minutes ago, dryslot said: There's not many young people willing to join and contribute their time as they prefer riding off trail which is also pissing off land owners and they are closing off more trail access because of them, We had a 10 day period locally here for riding last year, I doubt we even see any this year, But the NW area where i do ride is not operational right now either but are out cleaning up the storm damage from 10 days ago. meanwhile pittston farm posts a "we're grooming and very surprised" FB post last nite. I'm not sure how they're grooming the 7" they got unless they still had a crusty couple inches of base, but you'll see a bunch of guys flock there this weekend to ride circles around the farm and pound beer at the bar. The farm must be losing some money from the late start and are getting desperate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 28 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Northern Aroostook will get theirs..Abs so will western Maine. But we gotta be patient. In ‘21, I didn’t take my first trip til 1/21, abd it was marginal, but then it took off shortly there after. It happens. We wait for now. It will come. didn't ride last year till jan 27th, in jackman. The not again till march. Went out twice, but was able to rack up ~850mi, but that's terrible. Missed an opportunity to ride local only because we were coming back from saddleback weekend (end of Jan) and I figured I'd wait till the next weekend, but then it melted. sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Gfs looking better so far with the big storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 ohhhhhh boy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 A nice cold rain. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 12z GFS, Cuts off the slp to far south and floods the northeast with warmth this run, Hate to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: A nice cold rain. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z GFS, Cuts off the slp to far south and floods the northeast with warmth this run, Hate to see it. Improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 That would be another swift kick to the groin area verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A nice cold rain. Yesterday you ripped us for the same comment lol. ”relax, there’s a storm signal. Weenies gon wild.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Improvement From a warmer rain to a not as warm one? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 lol, 15 inches of snow here followed by flooding rains....that would sum up this season pretty well. Just another OP run though, at least a better look today so far, until Dr. No comes in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ohhhhhh boy You are amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 I'm giving up. It's one disappointment after another one. Plus, there's so much other crap happening on this site that doesn't even make it enjoyable. Good luck you guys! See you later today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Just now, qg_omega said: You are amazing there was a pretty dramatic improvement in the confluence ahead of the storm, but i’m sorry that you’re too dense to notice 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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