Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 37 minutes ago, jbenedet said: No punctuation or caps. Didn't realize that was a mortal sin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 One thing that is great to see (and just using a single timestamp to illustrate) is how the GFS finally signals some changes to the orientation and structure of the jet across and east of Asia. We lose the Nino-esq jet extension and get a more poleward jet. Downstream we also see wave breaking shifted west 20-30° which favors higher potential for an evolving ridge across the West and subsequent trough across the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 EPS good for second storm too. Probably even a few huggers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: EPS good for second storm too. Probably even a few huggers. this is generally what you want to see for large storms from DCA-BOS... a potent S/W crossing the US into confluence 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS good for second storm too. Probably even a few huggers. It’d be nice to get Mon/Tues closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I know we're not allowed to use ensembles here, but closed low and increased confluence Should have some interesting members for all 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It’s a bit rare for the same hemispheric space to wind up two monsters in such spacial-temporal contention like that, though. Takes a lot of mechanical power and that’s usually found around index disruption events. We still don’t have this latter aspect involved in the 12-16th period of interest, either. Ensemble behavior should be more heavily reliant .. Will be interesting to see what emerges out of future guidance - for analysis … not d-drip codependency issues. Lol. J/k 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 EPS indies are pretty darn wild for this far out...the mean is just about as good as you can ask for at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Does EPS go out any further? I’d like to see if it’s exiting stage right or making the turn… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Not too go all Georgie here, but if this signal really holds and we are flirting with a low coming up the coast, with how warm the SST's are the amount of moisture inflow would be through the roof. With this you also get nervous for any track along the coast without locking in colder air. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Not too go all Georgie here, but if this signal really holds and we are flirting with a low coming up the coast, with how warm the SST's are the amount of moisture inflow would be through the roof. With this you also get nervous for any track along the coast without locking in colder air. Will it be progressive or do we have any timely “blocking” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Will it be progressive or do we have any timely “blocking” Won't have blocking in the form of NAO blocking, but per the EPS we would be dealing with a high pressure to the north so something to watch. Even this far out though that detail can be iffy. One thing of note is the NAO looks to be trending more negative around this timeframe which would indicate higher heights (higher pressure) building into the NAO domain which could support a "blocking" potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was super close to being an epic solution....we want to see more northern stream injection of energy i think on future runs which will help the southern stream not bury itself too far south before trying to turn the corner....we want a bit more of a phase I think. But 9+ days out...hopefully it looks good 4 days from now. I'm content with this right now. Pieces are there to make that weekend a point of future meteorological reference for many years to come. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Does EPS go out any further? I’d like to see if it’s exiting stage right or making the turn… Indies have snow all the way to Maine... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 36 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: I know we're not allowed to use ensembles here No, they don't see SE ridges like a good, eagle-eyed met would. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Here's the individual members as it makes the closest pass to the benchmark....we're a long ways out so this doesn't mean a whole lot yet. Unfortunately, I feel like it has to keep being said about D9 progs lest you be accused of implying these are going to verify verbatim (which is kind of impossible when we're posting an ensemble spread....but logic never got in the way of a good internet meme argument). 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Won't have blocking in the form of NAO blocking, but per the EPS we would be dealing with a high pressure to the north so something to watch. Even this far out though that detail can be iffy. One thing of note is the NAO looks to be trending more negative around this timeframe which would indicate higher heights (higher pressure) building into the NAO domain which could support a "blocking" potential. 50/50 low/confluence might be in place ..no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: Forgive me Father, for I have sinned. 3 Our Farthers, And 5 Hail Marys should do the trick, Although this whole winter has been several more Hail Marys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 50/50 low/confluence might be in place ..no? Yeah confluence for sure would be a huge player in this. but we gotta keep in mind that while confluence can be our friend, it can also be our enemy. But as this stage...looking at the individual members Will posted when its close to the benchmark, all we can really take in right now is that there is potential for substantial cylogenesis off the coast. we hope this signal persists until we get close enough to pick out details. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Yeah confluence for sure would be a huge player in this. but we gotta keep in mind that while confluence can be our friend, it can also be our enemy. But as this stage...looking at the individual members Will posted when its close to the benchmark, all we can really take in right now is that there is potential for substantial cylogenesis off the coast. we hope this signal persists until we get close enough to pick out details. Well to be fair, so could the NAO…too much of one/a good thing is never good. Agreed though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's the individual members as it makes the closest pass to the benchmark....we're a long ways out so this doesn't mean a whole lot yet. Unfortunately, I feel like it has to keep being said about D9 progs lest you be accused of implying these are going to verify verbatim (which is kind of impossible when we're posting an ensemble spread....but logic never got in the way of a good internet meme argument). 965 mb 20 mi SE of ACK 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well to be fair, so could the NAO…too much of one/a good thing is never good. Agreed though. This is going to be a fun week of tracking. Hopefully people just keep in check though and understand the caveats that will apply and don't live-and-die by each subsequent model run. Models struggle big time with confluence so with that alone it won't be surprising to see wild changes from OP run to OP run. But until we get inside D5 the only thing that will matter is the evolution of the pattern. SLP tracks, snowfall maps mean squat. Just b/c an OP run may show no storm verbatim won't mean the storm is "lost" and just b/c an OP run may show a Georgie orgie blizzard, doesn't mean it's a lock. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 I nominate Tip to start the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 965 mb 20 mi SE of ACK ...from your kbd to God's ears (papal destructive intercession notwithstanding)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 9 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I nominate Tip to start the thread. Somebody newer and luckier! Tip can do post #2, and lay it out for us in detail. Great detail. 5,000 words of detail. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Scandinavian blocking on the weeklies ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Scandinavian blocking on the weeklies ? I don’t understand why people punted winter. It’s too early to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 43 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I nominate Tip to start the thread. That's been the kiss of death recently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Weeklies actually look decent for late Jan and early Feb….but we know the caveats. It goes more toward a classic La Niña pattern but with a pretty strong AK ridge which is usually good in February…longer wavelengths tend to make it less likely you get the AK trough folding back and digging in Cabo San Lucas. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Colonel Badger said: That's been the kiss of death recently. To be fair there WAS a huge storm and many records (elsewhere). I trust him to say what needs to be said (all of it) at the right time, albeit with perhaps better timing this go around. He was 2 cycles early on the last deal IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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