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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ya'll are gonna drive yourself nuts looking at OP runs 200 hours out....Euro has like -20C 850 temps over SNE at 200 hours last night and the entire system gets shoved out to sea.

If the storm gets completely cut off from the rest of the polar jet, then yeah, you're gonna have a springtime look to it but I'd probably wait until we're a little closer to start your whine and cheese party all over again

We’re just worried about the raging se ridge preached by a red tagger at the altar.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Bills Hamlin seems “neurologically intact and appears to have made great improvement “

Awesome that was my biggest worry. I have a client who suffered oxygen loss to his brain for an extended period. Suffice to say he couldn't play in the NFL.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Don't have ENS out that far yet but this look verbatim...given where we are in time frame...I'll take this all day.

Favorable position of the ridge axis, trough digging into the southeast with shortwave energy about to round the base and go negatively tilted towards the Southeast coast. Can't ask for more than that. Who gives a **** what the SLP maps or snowfall maps show

image.png.abc4922cb380e0006e1fbeeebffbc8e0.png

Too late…TFlizz is hanging from a tree in the marine puke that the GFS CMC OP showed 8 days from now. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…but it was you who said let’s get the GFS to happen next week. You knew you’d drive the Nellies off the ledge. :P

Right, do I have to state the caveats of an op that far out? :lol:  Clearly it was a joke, but the weenies are on edge. I get it.

 

GEFS are probably the opposite of the op. LOL.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Right, do I have to state the caveats of an op that far out? :lol:  Clearly it was a joke, but the weenies are on edge. I get it.

 

GEFS are probably the opposite of the op. LOL.

No you don’t.
 

But for a few that are saying we are whistling past the graveyard for looking at ensembles, and are unhinged, ya might wanna lol. 

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lmao this looks lovely

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_anom-3643600.thumb.png.54835d461a39fa0e62ed6791e877106d.png

Ya that looks real nice. All we can ask for at this juncture. Hope it continues. 
 

Pope says you’re leading us off a cliff…lol. Think he bumped his head on the altar too many times.
 

But We all know the caveats at this lead time…so we good. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s decent. Ots looks like the prevailing theme with multiple waves next week so that would be my greater concern for the 14th than any rains to the border. 

yup, I feel like if the 14th is going to fail, it would be suppressed. I would much rather have to need an amped system to trend NW than a cutter trend SE

the former happens a good bit. the latter... not so much

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, I feel like if the 14th is going to fail, it would be suppressed. I would much rather have to need an amped system to trend NW than a cutter trend SE

the former happens a good bit. the latter... not so much

I don’t remember a great event that trended se from a cutter but I recall several big ones that trended nw from ots so yea I agree, I prefer this spot. 

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