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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

climate change has expanded the west pacific warm pool so much that enso matters less than it used to

Yeah I would actually also extend this into the Hadley cell discussion… Not really exactly the same thing but sort of related.

Obviously know this but the Hadley cell being more at a global phenomenon. 

anyway… We’ve been seeing an increased frequency of these midwinter disconnects or decoupling phenomenon between the atmosphere in the ENSOs over the last 10 to 15 years worth of winters. 

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Last night NWS had my area at 32F this morning with drizzle... wound up at around 40F.

A couple of districts went with the NWS and called the delay last night.  I understand that.  Takes 1 accident to happen to ruin a life.  Meanwhile kids get an extra hour or 2 of sleep and people lose their minds.

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2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

In elementary school in the 70s we had our bus get stuck two separate times going in during decent storms. Then in high school in the 80s it just didn't snow. I think I had a total of 5 snow days for all four years. I think I may remember one delayed opening

I'm surprised they did not have all the students get out of the bus and then push the bus! That happened once my sophomore year on the way to a basketball game.  Bus got stuck at a traffic light. We all got off of the bus to push the bus out of a rut.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think the NAM and HRRR are more likely to be correct with a dynamic system like this one. But in this winter the way things are going .. nothing would surprise me 

Nothing says dynamic like a 1012 mb surface low, and a 1027 mb surface high in NB that shunts east as the surface low develops.

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4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I'm surprised they did not have all the students get out of the bus and then push the bus! That happened once my sophomore year on the way to a basketball game.  Bus got stuck at a traffic light. We all got off of the bus to push the bus out of a rut.

Our bus driver Ed just told us to "SIT DOWN AND SHUT UP!" His garbage barrels in the bus were a constant stream of Canei Wine boxes. Hung over anger issues for sure lol

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The only shunting going on is you into a box into the ground with a new Pope shunting in.

Remember I am the new pope. I blessed this event earlier in the week, as I am also anointing several more chances the next two weeks. I am your Green Mountain pontiff, jump on my mobile.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wouldn’t be surprised if advisories go up for interior if euro mostly agrees with the 12z guidance so far. But the 00z and 06z runs weren’t that impressive so it needs to ramp up a little from those solutions. 

Yeah I'd like to see it get on board a bit, but those nam/gfs soundings are juicy for many. 

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50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That image is a replica of MLK. I’ll never forget Will posting pictures of him and Megan prancing thru 8” of snow , smiling, laughing, holding hands. He had on his blue Mighty Mac jacket. I recall it all so vividly. Meanwhile here I had gotten home from work and smashed the remote control against the wall into pieces 

you sound like Ray

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28 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

In elementary school in the 70s we had our bus get stuck two separate times going in during decent storms. Then in high school in the 80s it just didn't snow. I think I had a total of 5 snow days for all four years. I think I may remember one delayed opening

Back in the day . . .   
We lived in Fort Kent 1976-85, and in that whole time there were 1.5 days called due to weather.  The full day was due to a blown forecast - it was snowing hard during the late evening but the progged 1-3" probably led the relevant people to think that it would soon quit.  Instead, we had 18" in 9 hours and the next morning all the available plows were opening roads rather than school parking lots.  Six weeks later there was 6" new at sunrise but the forecast was "only" 6-12 so school started as usual.  By noon another 6-8" and it was puking snow, so they sent the kids home after the half day.  All the buses made their runs okay, even to Allagash (30 miles, mostly flat) and Winterville (25, with some brutal hills).  We finished with 26.5", still tops in my experience, and we averaged over 130"/year during our time there.

I'm confident that Fort Kent calls a lot more snow days now.  

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