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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

might be a bit too late for mby, but orh and adjacent areas could do nicely with this one...may whiten the ground here, ALY has about 1-2" expected, we'll see, temps and dews are iffy, but liking what I see next weekend. of course I won't be here most likely...

I think this really gets going a bit too late to give much of anyone (outside of northeast CT) the chance for any type of accumulation.

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There is some decent divergence aloft and enhanced lift with the shortwave tracking just south. Also have sufficient moisture to work with. I guess it depends on one's expectation, but I would think we see a nice blossoming shield of light snow hit most and then where you have stronger and deeper lift you'll stand the chance to get maybe 2-3''. I suppose a 4'' total can't be ruled out but I wouldn't hope on that.

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This one will hurt a nice 2-5” event on the way for the non CT crew. The CT melts will be epic lol .. We wait for the next one. 

Well after this one misses north, the 8/9th misses south, and the 15th or whatever cuts west, we’ll be primed for season cancels 

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Really close to a surprise ice rink in much of E Mass today. Temps underperforming guidance right now and the NAM shows 33˚. Seems like the kind of storm that the DPW crews won't pay attention to until it's too late.

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7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This one will hurt a nice 2-5” event on the way for the non CT crew. The CT melts will be epic lol .. We wait for the next one. 

I'm curious to see what happens here within spitting distance of MA tomorrow. I have to be in Granville MA tomorrow mid afternoon, so maybe I'll see a little coating 

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Well after this one misses north, the 8/9th misses south, and the 15th or whatever cuts west, we’ll be primed for season cancels 

Last season was pretty crappy around here, but oddly I have more snow to this date than I had last year....We had warning snows on the 7th of last year which came at a great time to help ease the need to cancel the season in January

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4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Isn’t that basically what the Herpes model did? It flashed se Mass over to a period of pretty heavy snow 

NAM is close for you and I. I think part of this comes down to what happens tonight with this cold tuck. I do see subtle shifts north which may complicate things for us. We'll have to watch the trends today.

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12 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

This one will hurt a nice 2-5” event on the way for the non CT crew. The CT melts will be epic lol .. We wait for the next one. 

Meh, no pain. The season is dragging on with constant can kicking. I’ll settle for one big dog Ray promised would happen in mid Jan and pass on mangled flakes or slushy inches on grassy knolls while emaatt get a little happy ending. 

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19 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Weenies getting duped.
 

NAM guidance (non-MOS) continues to be running way too cold at very short lead times. I have pointed this out before. Euro much more reliable.
 

Look at the past 8 runs for temps at 12z today. It was awful. 

Pope vs. the world on this one

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5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Last season was pretty crappy around here, but oddly I have more snow to this date than I had last year....We had warning snows on the 7th of last year which came at a great time to help ease the need to cancel the season in January

Same here. I have had more snow in Westfield this season to this point. We'll see where it goes from here

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Meh, no pain. The season is dragging on with constant can kicking. I’ll settle for one big dog Ray promised would happen in mid Jan and pass on mangled flakes or slushy inches on grassy knolls while emaatt get a little happy ending. 

Was it 2011/12 where that happened? Week after week the pattern looked to get better, and it never did in SNE

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