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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Can see why no one mentioned the models...everything for the 14th looks worse, which is all I, and most, care about.

Not that it matters right now, but outta work with covid and was hoping for late night model cinema. 

Pretty clear pattern so far this season. One interesting model cycle, immediately followed by more garbage.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It is. That’s the one to watch on all guidance. 

Yeah the sig is really strong on ensembles. People need to ignore the OP runs for now as hard as that is.
 

It’s 9 days out and has a great chance of not amounting to anything too. But for this lead time, it’s all you can really ask for realistically. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wonder if someone can pick up 4 or 5 inches in the high terrain tomorrow. Like ORH county to berks. But even down lower could be interesting. Nice soundings. 

Yeah higher terrain pike north favored, but even lower spots especially with latitude could cash in. Some guidance has 1-2 even here. I think part of it comes down to what happens tonight. Can we sneak to near 32 at BOS and hang tight for a bit with the tuck, or will it wash out and be like 34-35 and make it tougher for accumulating. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the sig is really strong on ensembles. People need to ignore the OP runs for now as hard as that is.
 

It’s 9 days out and has a great chance of not amounting to anything too. But for this lead time, it’s all you can really ask for realistically. 

I like that hint of really turning the corner as it exits off the SE coast. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like whatever happens on the 14th, we get warmer again for a few days after mid month. But all guidance, even EPS relaxes the PAC jet at that time. So I sense maybe another run later in the month perhaps into early Feb. 

I truly feel the same way. I know some of the models are just showing a torch through the rest of January, But there are also indications of some changes in the stratosphere. Things have been so erratic this season with some drastic changes to the models weekly, so I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see it go back to a pattern that could be favorable for some cooler temps and more snow chances.

Time will tell, but I think we'll still all be here to see what happens

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah higher terrain pike north favored, but even lower spots especially with latitude could cash in. Some guidance has 1-2 even here. I think part of it comes down to what happens tonight. Can we sneak to near 32 at BOS and hang tight for a bit with the tuck, or will it wash out and be like 34-35 and make it tougher for accumulating. 

Little mesolow tries to form tomorrow too with that potent vortmax. If that develops a little quicker and backs the winds more N, that will help out the lower areas near the coast…even 2F can make a big difference. 

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:
9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I can see it going back way warmer or colder like he said it’s fluid. 

Expand  

I do think that if we can get our temperatures cold enough tonight, and we get a nice burst of precipitation tomorrow, we can even see the rain go over to snow at least in the northern half of the state, even below the higher elevations. It'll be kind of cool to see what happens. Happens. Sometimes. It's just cool seeing rain turned to snow even if it doesn't accumulate that much. Gives us some hope when we see the actual snow coming down lol

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah higher terrain pike north favored, but even lower spots especially with latitude could cash in. Some guidance has 1-2 even here. I think part of it comes down to what happens tonight. Can we sneak to near 32 at BOS and hang tight for a bit with the tuck, or will it wash out and be like 34-35 and make it tougher for accumulating. 

What do you we need south of 90 ? Is it marginal  BL? Anything to look for on 12z meso runs today? 

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