TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris12WX said: Am I crazy for thinking this look verbatim isn’t great and congrats Bermuda? Looks like it would shoot right off the coast. Flat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: BDL and ORH didn’t move them. They just didn’t report them. They often reported in individual events but not all the time. Esp the smaller ones. We were able to reconstruct ORH data pretty accurately and they now have it on the nws site (after like 15 years! Woohoo!). But BDL was never been pieced back together. I tried with BDL for some years but I wasn’t able to do all of them. I think PVD may have had a few missing years too but not as many as ORH and BDL. I think those two were missing 7 full winters and parts of another. Wait… NWS added the missing ORH data?!!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like it would shoot right off the coast. Flat You wouldn't be able to get that wave to amplify with that flow over New England on that H5 chart. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Am I crazy for thinking this look verbatim isn’t great and congrats Bermuda? Western ridge axis is good but the confluence is too far south. Verbatim yeah I agree it’s out to sea, but that’s where we want it on the gefs this far out. Gfs and gefs has a progressive/zonal bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Looks like it would shoot right off the coast. Flat it’s quite good, actually. i just want to see an amplified shortwave at this range 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s quite good, actually. i just want to see an amplified shortwave at this range That's where i thought you were going with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's where i thought you were going with that. i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change” 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change” True. You really can’t win with the models right now. The only thing that will shut everyone up is production. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change” Your point is well taken. The funny part is…how many folks think this look will change too, being it’s 8-10 days out? They see the confluence pressing this south and OTS, and then they automatically think…congrats Bermuda, and it’s a done deal…especially in this snake bit start. It’s easy to do. You know… the old persistence forecast idea. And as we all know, that works right up until it doesn’t. Let’s hope we can catch a lil break with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: True. You really can’t win with the models right now. The only thing that will shut everyone up is production. True. The head fake from 2 weeks ago burned a lot of people, though, myself included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: True. You really can’t win with the models right now. The only thing that will shut everyone up is production. That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?) Agreed about getting this inside 6 days. I don’t know if it’s better odds at this lead time peppering the BM (8-10 days), don’t think it matters when it’s still this far out. Too many nuances that still can’t be seen at 8-10 days lead. So where it is now is all we can ask for now. Hopefully it trends in our favor the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?) Even if it did, I think even the most ardent and objective NWP watchers would feel at least a little bit of apprehension through game time. It’s easy to be skeptical when the rug has been “pulled” once—even though it really just happened to be the case that the excellent look did produce a historic storm, just not in our backyards. If that monster hit the Atlantic and annihilated Hartford to Ray or ORH to Portland the entire tenor of this thread outside of Taunton would be different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Agreed about getting this inside 6 days. I don’t know if it’s better odds at this lead time peppering the BM (8-10 days), don’t think it matters when it’s still this far out. Too many nuances that still can’t be seen at 8-10 days lead. So where it is now is all we can ask for now. Hopefully it trends in our favor the next few days. It’s better odds being consistently closer at any lead times then if it’s consistently not . People just love to remember the times it was forecast to hit us then moved away because that stings much More than a storm forecast to go far south that never comes back , it’s forgotten completely (in that case ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 It doesn’t seem like a set up though that’s suddenly going to switch to a cutter like the one last month, so frankly I’d like to see a quickly trend to much closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, mahk_webstah said: It doesn’t seem like a set up though that’s suddenly going to switch to a cutter like the one last month, so frankly I’d like to see a quickly trend to much closer to the coast If it was showing a cutter, You could've locked this already ha ha. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s always better odds being closer initially . People just love to remember the times it was forecast to hit us then moved away because that stings much More than a storm forecast to go far south that never hits us I think people remember the cutters that lock in and congrats Raleigh storms just as much. We hear about it enough lol. Despite my own subjective negativity, I do think when looking at the guidance and overall pattern evolution without an emotional eye there’s no reason to think we will roll snake eyes during the upcoming active period. There’s no reason imo to worry too much yet. Deficits in January happen more often than we like to admit, and usually we end up near climo as that becomes more favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 0z Nam doesnt look bad for Friday in SNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Nam(s) look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 A trend like that would work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 And why does the school in my town already have a two hour delay for tomorrow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Inland SNE peeps will like the 0z NAM for Friday. Coastal and SEMA peeps, not so much. Sorry TB13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 LOL...January 4th and already 80 pages of....angst, wishcasting, vitriol, etc...with a little bit of model analysis and weather discussion sprinkled in for good measure. If this rate keeps up we'll be at ~600ish pages by the end of the month. Today was fantastic by the way. 60 degrees and muted sun in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: And why does the school in my town already have a two hour delay for tomorrow Lawyers, and helicopter parents. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 nam is a good advisory event for almost everyone away from the coast, trending better, a good coating of snow would lighten spirits in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 0z HRRR was 4 or so for here Friday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 AEMATT? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 0z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 0z RGEM Really? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 5, 2023 Share Posted January 5, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Really? Nice. for the hills 2 to 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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