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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

BDL and ORH didn’t move them. They just didn’t report them. They often reported in individual events but not all the time. Esp the smaller ones. We were able to reconstruct ORH data pretty accurately and they now have it on the nws site (after like 15 years! Woohoo!). But BDL was never been pieced back together. I tried with BDL for some years but I wasn’t able to do all of them. 
 

I think PVD may have had a few missing years too but not as many as ORH and BDL. I think those two were missing 7 full winters and parts of another. 

Wait… NWS added the missing ORH data?!!!?   

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4 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Am I crazy for thinking this look verbatim isn’t great and congrats Bermuda?

Western ridge axis is good but the confluence is too far south. Verbatim yeah I agree it’s out to sea, but that’s where we want it on the gefs this far out. Gfs and gefs has a progressive/zonal bias

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change”

True. You really can’t win with the models right now. 

The only thing that will shut everyone up is production. 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, even if the EPS and GEFS had a bunch of 970s with perfect tracks, you’d still have people saying “oh this isn’t good, it’s day 8-10 and it’s going to change”

Your point is well taken.
 

The funny part is…how many folks think this look will change too, being it’s  8-10 days out?  They see the confluence pressing this south and OTS, and then they automatically think…congrats Bermuda, and it’s a done deal…especially in this snake bit start. It’s easy to do. You know… the old persistence forecast idea.  And as we all know, that works right up until it doesn’t.
 

Let’s hope we can catch a lil break with this. 

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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

True. You really can’t win with the models right now. 

The only thing that will shut everyone up is production. 

That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?)  

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?)  

Agreed about getting this inside 6 days. 
 

I don’t know if it’s better odds at this lead time peppering the BM  (8-10 days), don’t think it matters when it’s still this far out. Too many nuances that still can’t be seen at 8-10 days lead. So where it is now is all we can ask for now. Hopefully it trends in our favor the next few days. 

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s a valid point . Until we get inside 6-7 days it’s Low confidence . That being said if a system is consistently peppering the bench mark for a few days , that’s certainly better odds (right ?)  

Even if it did, I think even the most ardent and objective NWP watchers would feel at least a little bit of apprehension through game time.

It’s easy to be skeptical when the rug has been “pulled” once—even though it really just happened to be the case that the excellent look did produce a historic storm, just not in our backyards. 

If that monster hit the Atlantic and annihilated Hartford to Ray or ORH to Portland the entire tenor of this thread outside of Taunton would be different.

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18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed about getting this inside 6 days. 
 

I don’t know if it’s better odds at this lead time peppering the BM  (8-10 days), don’t think it matters when it’s still this far out. Too many nuances that still can’t be seen at 8-10 days lead. So where it is now is all we can ask for now. Hopefully it trends in our favor the next few days. 

It’s better odds being consistently  closer at any lead  times then if it’s consistently not  .
 

People just love to remember the times it was forecast to hit us then moved away because that stings much More than a storm forecast to go far south that never comes back , it’s forgotten completely (in that case )

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

It doesn’t seem like a set up though that’s suddenly going to switch to a cutter like the one last month, so frankly I’d like to see a quickly trend to much closer to the coast

If it was showing a cutter, You could've locked this already ha ha.

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s always better odds being closer initially .
 

People just love to remember the times it was forecast to hit us then moved away because that stings much More than a storm forecast to go far south that never hits us 

I think people remember the cutters that lock in and congrats Raleigh storms just as much. We hear about it enough lol. 

Despite my own subjective negativity, I do think when looking at the guidance and overall pattern evolution without an emotional eye there’s no reason to think we will roll snake eyes during the upcoming active period. There’s no reason imo to worry too much yet. Deficits in January happen more often than we like to admit, and usually we end up near climo as that becomes more favorable.

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LOL...January 4th and already 80 pages of....angst, wishcasting, vitriol, etc...with a little bit of model analysis and weather discussion sprinkled in for good measure.

If this rate keeps up we'll be at ~600ish pages by the end of the month.  Today was fantastic by the way. 60 degrees and muted sun in the afternoon.

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