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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Well, we do need an E Canadian region cold source.

In split flow, we can sometimes get away without it. Jan ‘06 was an example…ditto for periods in the ‘83 Nino and more recently we did ok in late Dec 2012 with that type of look. The first half or 2/3rds of Jan ‘87 was similar as well. I think we were like +3 or +4 the first couple weeks with 3 warning snow events.

But you need that split flow with lower heights down south for it to have a chance. Otherwise it’s parakeets and pina coladas. 

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26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

First of all, Stop backing that troll Qg all the time.
 

Secondly, you’re from Jersey, if you’re gonna come in here, then stop pimping a MET from NC.  You have to realize there are caveats with that look that could not make it verify. GEFS is completely different. 

He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. 

If not then it is what it is

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1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Well, the bad winters had nothing or close to it at this point as well.  There are more examples of bad winters up to mid Jan that stayed bad for the rest of the way than there are winters of 15-16.  

‘15-16 was an awful winter. It stayed bad. We did get some snow events but it wasn’t enough to revive winter. The mid-Atlantic had the HECS but it only fringed us. You might be thinking of 2014-15. 

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4 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:


North Carolina won’t snow with plus 10..much of NE can still clean up with plus ten. And it’s a five day 850. It couldn’t be more irrelevant….I think there’s general consensus jan will be above normal temps.


.

It’s not a good pattern but it’s far from the worst. We don’t have an AK vortex and we have split flow. We’re in the game if those two criteria are met. Hopefully it trends a little better too given the tropical forcing. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

In split flow, we can sometimes get away without it. Jan ‘06 was an example…ditto for periods in the ‘83 Nino and more recently we did ok in late Dec 2012 with that type of look. The first half or 2/3rds of Jan ‘87 was similar as well. I think we were like +3 or +4 the first couple weeks with 3 warning snow events.

But you need that split flow with lower heights down south for it to have a chance. Otherwise it’s parakeets and pina coladas. 

Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. 

If not then it is what it is

That’s fine…then he should stay in his own sub forum.  I’m at 3.8”, but I’m gonna go out on a flimsy limb here,  and say I’ll make into double digits easily before this winter wraps up 10 weeks from now.   It may be a rat, but even in the rats, it snows in SNE. It may not in Jersey however.   

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather

That said, I also think its BS to just summarily dismiss what he is saying...that is as bad as the trollling. Just contest the point.

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10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

He's gone max pessimist like that snowman character. I'm feeling bleak atm but even I think we'll prob get something eventually. 

If not then it is what it is

It's just a different form of weenie.  You have the snow weenie, then them.  

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17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a good pattern but it’s far from the worst. We don’t have an AK vortex and we have split flow. We’re in the game if those two criteria are met. Hopefully it trends a little better too given the tropical forcing. 

Yeah, you've been on this so I wasn't trying to argue some epic pattern...just pointing out to him that red anomalies aren't the kiss of death, especially for NNE, where mid Atlantic and especially NC, it's game over.  But yeah, when I see bare ground in Jay Vt. in January, it doesn't scream epic.  About as bad as it can get skiing wise right now.  I'm still optimistic that it being this active, the odds will play out up here.

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23 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There's no SE ridge. 240 hr out 

There's no SE ridge. 180 hr out

There's no SE ridge. 150 hr out

There is a SE ridge.... 120 hr out  :arrowhead:

88fef69d-8e8a-4959-835e-6d6d9741723d.gif

It’s good you finally agree that we’re not dealing with a SE ridge the next week or two. 

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What sort of dick mentality is being a troll and pushing a narrative like some are doing.  It goes both ways Bob.  

Wut are even talking about?  Kevin is in here ripping degreed METs and asking for proof.  That’s over the line.  Proof is provided when they join.  Maybe pick your battles better.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Wut are even talking about?  Kevin is in here ripping degreed METs and asking for proof.  That’s over the line.  Proof is provided when they join.  Maybe pick your battles better.

Bob, I don’t have to like a pushed narrative. You want to post the bad looks, that’s fine. But then post the decent and good looks too.  
 

Will and Scott tell us exactly what looks nice and what doesn’t. I have no issues with somebody saying something doesn’t look good. But when something looks good, then say that too. That’s not happening with a few posters here. It’s a pushed idea by a few. And if that’s your idea, then that’s ok too, if you provide some sound evidence and backing. And a couple of them aren’t even from N.E. 

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17 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Yeah, you've been on this so I wasn't trying to argue some epic pattern...just pointing out to him that red anomalies aren't the kiss of death, especially for NNE, where mid Atlantic and especially NC, it's game over.  But yeah, when I see bare ground in Jay Vt. in January, it doesn't scream epic.  About as bad as it can get skiing wise right now.  I'm still optimistic that it being this active, the odds will play out up here.

I mean, this is my backyard on Jan 4 at 1500 feet in NNE. You don’t find that epic??? :lol:

3FFA1F63-D8F1-46F3-9E1A-D3C9F9ACD323.jpeg

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He was showing everyone he is not a degreed met . My guess is maybe he’s an 18 yr old intern or college student ?

They don’t get the tag unless they provide proof (or in some cases, we might already know them or another met went to school with them)

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9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I had absolutely no idea it was THIS bad up there. Maybe well be able to get in some nice hiking for our trip in a few weeks 

Yes it’s that bad. As many have said, much can change in a few weeks but certainly pretty pathetic right now. That said, I just talked to some guests today and they said that they’re still having a blast. Don’t let the weather get you down, there’s still plenty of activities to enjoy out there and you can still ski and have a good time, if it’s not the best. 

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6 minutes ago, alex said:

Yes it’s that bad. As many have said, much can change in a few weeks but certainly pretty pathetic right now. That said, I just talked to some guests today and they said that they’re still having a blast. Don’t let the weather get you down, there’s still plenty of activities to enjoy out there and you can still ski and have a good time, if it’s not the best. 

I’m sure we’ll have a good time. If nothing else, they’ll be plenty of drinking, don’t need snow for that :lol:

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