WeatherWilly Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 We have a brief-window to get this done before bermuda shorts weather returns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said: We have a brief-window to get this done before bermuda shorts weather returns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 We can still get snow threats here with above-average 2M temps in January and February. Obviously as you go towards NYC latitude and points south your chances decrease drastically. Also, keep in mind with using 2M temp maps (in this case is) are the anomalies being driven by well above-average overnight temps or daytime temps? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t folks just say it got good towards the end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We can still get snow threats here with above-average 2M temps in January and February. Obviously as you go towards NYC latitude and points south your chances decrease drastically. Also, keep in mind with using 2M temp maps (in this case is) are the anomalies being driven by well above-average overnight temps or daytime temps? It’s still a split flow look too. So I think we’ll have chances even if it’s above average. My gut still says we trend colder with that look though as we get closer. Anytime I see the core of positive height anomalies centered from Hudson Bay over to northern Labrador, I’m skeptical of big warmth for us. The tropical forcing still argues for a bit colder than that look but we’ll see. At least it’s active. Nothing worse than pure zonal flow with no systems. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn’t folks just say it got good towards the end of the run? Hes showing the 0z run and this is way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 18z gfs is a decent burst for SNH Friday. Marginal temps but soundings are pretty good for a couple hours. Gonna need some decent bands or it'll be meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s still a split flow look too. So I think we’ll have chances even if it’s above average. My gut still says we trend colder with that look though as we get closer. Anytime I see the core of positive height anomalies centered from Hudson Bay over to northern Labrador, I’m skeptical of big warmth for us. The tropical forcing still argues for a bit colder than that look but we’ll see. At least it’s active. Nothing worse than pure zonal flow with no systems. I'll take my chances with that. The look verbatim too would favor trough axis more into the Southeast as opposed to farther west. Would help with getting any digging system to go negatively tilted as it digs into the region. Much better then recent crap luck of having all this occur more into the Mississippi Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 4, 2023 Author Share Posted January 4, 2023 12z euro ens doesn't look great d10-15 either, fairly similar look. But yeah it would probably be active with juicy systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We can still get snow threats here with above-average 2M temps in January and February. Obviously as you go towards NYC latitude and points south your chances decrease drastically. Also, keep in mind with using 2M temp maps (in this case is) are the anomalies being driven by well above-average overnight temps or daytime temps? True. If we were to get a storm on, say, Jan 20 (This is NOT a forecast!!) with temp here of 25/20, that's a 9° AN day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 39 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Why would you post something that a met who lives in North Carolina tweets? What does that have to do with New England? 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 15 minutes ago, tamarack said: True. When we get a storm on Jan 20 (This is a forecast!!) with temp here of 25/20, that's a 9° AN day. I'm intrigued. Someone should start a thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would you post something that a met who lives in North Carolina tweets? What does that have to do with New England? Exactly why I made the post I made I don't think Allan meant to target New England in his tweet haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why would you post something that a met who lives in North Carolina tweets? What does that have to do with New England? 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Exactly why I made the post I made I don't think Allan meant to target New England in his tweet haha This isn’t exactly just a warm pattern for NC…… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t exactly just a warm pattern for NC…… Looks great for New England, people are loosing their grasp on reality 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GFS giveth ...and GFS taketh away. It still has the period of interest but is coming out with destructive interference so nothing can develop in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t exactly just a warm pattern for NC…… First of all, Stop backing that troll Qg all the time. Secondly, you’re from Jersey, if you’re gonna come in here, then stop pimping a MET from NC. You have to realize there are caveats with that look that could not make it verify. GEFS is completely different. 2 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t exactly just a warm pattern for NC…… warm enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This isn’t exactly just a warm pattern for NC…… It has zero to do with NE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It has zero to do with NE Well, we do need an E Canadian region cold source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Sigh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: First of all, Stop backing that troll Qg all the time. Secondly, you’re from Jersey, if you’re gonna come in here, then stop pimping a MET from NC. You have to realize there are caveats with that look that could not make it verify. GEFS is completely different. The gefs r not completely different in that timeframe Currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I live in Massachusetts, why should I care about what a MET from CT, NY, VT, NH, or ME thinks? What sort of dick mentality is that. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Sigh I mean at this point I'm not even feeling a vibe that winter wants to get going in SNE. We moved to Greenfield in 2007 and this is the least amount of total snow to date that I have experienced. Obviously the 14" in Oct 2011 skewed that a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: I mean at this point I'm not even feeling a vibe that winter wants to get going in SNE. We moved to Greenfield in 2007 and this is the least amount of total snow to date that I have experienced. Obviously the 14" in Oct 2011 skewed that a bit. It’s comical right now that we will be under 5” for many places come mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I mean at this point I'm not even feeling a vibe that winter wants to get going in SNE. We moved to Greenfield in 2007 and this is the least amount of total snow to date that I have experienced. Obviously the 14" in Oct 2011 skewed that a bit. What about 2015-16? We had basically nothing at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I mean at this point I'm not even feeling a vibe that winter wants to get going in SNE. We moved to Greenfield in 2007 and this is the least amount of total snow to date that I have experienced. Obviously the 14" in Oct 2011 skewed that a bit. Almost baseball season. At least Red Sox just showed something of a pulse giving Raffy Devers the largest contract on record for a third baseman. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What about 2015-16? We had basically nothing at this point. And it was 73 on Xmas Eve in ‘15. Folks can’t remember stuff anymore…it’s always it’s the worst it’s ever been. That’s comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I live in Massachusetts, why should I care about what a MET from CT, NY, VT, NH, or ME thinks? What sort of dick mentality is that. What sort of dick mentality is being a troll and pushing a narrative like some are doing. It goes both ways Bob. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What about 2015-16? We had basically nothing at this point. Well, the bad winters had nothing or close to it at this point as well. There are more examples of bad winters up to mid Jan that stayed bad for the rest of the way than there are winters of 15-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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