jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 So many 200 hr+ maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I don't disagree with that at all. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussion. I mean everyone has their different motives, some just love discussing and assessing the potential, some just want the big storm, and some really want to learn more and understand the "why this happened and why this didn't happen". It's just more of the kickback that happens. When someone starts posting thoughts/opinions (whether backed with data or not) that goes against the overall majority, then the discussion becomes messy and is it really discussion anymore? Next week is the best signal since the 23rd let down that hit the Midwest/Buffalo and Canada…so we discuss. It’s 1/4…lots of potential to discuss for the next 10 weeks. Whether we miss every single one, or it turns out to be a decent winter. You can say kick the can or whatever…but when there’s not much happening currently, that’s what we do, we look for potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Next week is the best signal since the 23rd let down that hit the Midwest/Buffalo and Canada…so we discuss. It’s 1/4…lots of potential to discuss for the next 10 weeks. Whether we miss every single one, or it turns out to be a decent winter. You can say kick the can or whatever…but when there’s not much happening currently, that’s what we do, we look for potential. Something will hopefully pan out so we don't have to keep staring at bare ground with dry Arctic blasts every few weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I don't disagree with that at all. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussion. I mean everyone has their different motives, some just love discussing and assessing the potential, some just want the big storm, and some really want to learn more and understand the "why this happened and why this didn't happen". It's just more of the kickback that happens. When someone starts posting thoughts/opinions (whether backed with data or not) that goes against the overall majority, then the discussion becomes messy and is it really discussion anymore? The bolded is a good thing on a scientific forum....people should be exposed to heterodox opinions as long as those opinions are in good faith and backed with evidence. I think when evidence-free claims are made, that's when people perceive it as trolling and they are often correct. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Something will hopefully pan out so we don't have to keep staring at bare ground with dry Arctic blasts every few weeks. I hope so too Wiz. 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The bolded is a good thing on a scientific forum....people should be exposed to heterodox opinions as long as those opinions are in good faith and backed with evidence. I think when evidence-free claims are made, that's when people perceive it as trolling and they are often correct. Yes…when there is no evidence for the claims it’s sickening and trolling for sure. Especially when trolls just say toss, or say because it’s a stable pattern…lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 12th-14th remind anyone of February 1983? A generally awful winter as I recall, went cold for a week or two, with a 20" bomb. Although that may have been a Nino year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: 12th-14th remind anyone of February 1983? A generally awful winter as I recall, went cold for a week or two, with a 20" bomb. Although that may have been a Nino year? '83 was a super Nino....the pattern is definitely like that for a couple weeks here. About 4 days before the big KU, there was another big storm that hit interior SNE hard, but the coast had a lot of ptype issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '83 was a super Nino....the pattern is definitely like that for a couple weeks here. About 4 days before the big KU, there was another big storm that hit interior SNE hard, but the coast had a lot of ptype issues. 16 was a super Nino too…another monster storm hit in January that absolutely obliterated the Mid Atlantic(I got in on it somewhere with about 10-12”,) but there wasn’t much north of Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: '83 was a super Nino....the pattern is definitely like that for a couple weeks here. About 4 days before the big KU, there was another big storm that hit interior SNE hard, but the coast had a lot of ptype issues. Haven't we had periods in the past where the atmospheric state became totally opposite of the oceanic state for a time and the result was an active pattern with big storm potential? Given the pathetic luck we've been having with this Nina-state maybe having an atmospheric state Nino-like will work to our advantage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 18z NAM has a good burst of snow Friday. It's been on and off all the models. Just have to watch that one....the only reason it's even semi-interesting is the atmosphere is quite unstable friday. It gets pretty cold aloft with e marginal boundary layer and that can produce some heavier bands if anything materializes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 NAM has a decent burst of snow across the region Friday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM has a good burst of snow Friday. It's been on and off all the models. Just have to watch that one....the only reason it's even semi-interesting is the atmosphere is quite unstable friday. It gets pretty cold aloft with e marginal boundary layer and that can produce some heavier bands if anything materializes. 528 thicknesses and marginal airmass at the surface. Quite cold aloft to get such low thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Shortwave tracks pretty much overhead. Quite unstable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 528 thicknesses and marginal airmass at the surface. Quite cold aloft to get such low thicknesses. Decent crosshair sig on the soundings too...hopefully it happens. These seem to be coin flips though....sometimes you get some nice bands of moderate to heavy snow and other times it's almost nothing. Pretty potent vortmax though, which is what you want to see to try and generate some lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Little critter “scenario” Something like this could easily not be taken seriously and then somebody gets a clap of thunder too. lapse rate is kind of zonked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Also, we typically have at least a few threats kind of show up out of nowhere inside of 5 days every winter but that hasn't really happened this year. Those "surprise" threats typically take our attention away from clown range. Probably 12/11 is the only one that really ramped up inside of 72-84 hours this season and even that one was mostly a clipper-esque system that got western SNE the best. um, excuse me sir, but TT clearly stated just a couple hours ago that we should stop using the "T word" because it causes us to be too emotionally invested. 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly. Yada yada yada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Little critter “scenario” Something like this could easily not be taken seriously and then somebody gets a clap of thunder too Had something like this the day after the MLK 2010 storm....it was actually the event that put Kevin into his infamous MLK meltdown....he was already teetering on being screwed in the storm a day and half earlier, but this little potent vortmax/ULL swings through but he's slightly too warm in the BL with heavy rain showers while just north over the border, we're pounding quarters with 1/4 mile vis and got a surprise 3-4". I even took 3 pics that day....still have them. Sometimes those events are almost as fun as a bigger storm....because you weren;'t expecting much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Decent crosshair sig on the soundings too...hopefully it happens. These seem to be coin flips though....sometimes you get some nice bands of moderate to heavy snow and other times it's almost nothing. Pretty potent vortmax though, which is what you want to see to try and generate some lift. Definitely skeptical. Verbatim by the time it gets going central areas are already starting to wrap up with precip by my eye. Coin flip like you said. Give me the precipitation and I’ll take my chances with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: um, excuse me sir, but TT clearly stated just a couple hours ago that we should stop using the "T word" because it causes us to be too emotionally invested. When I think of an individual who gets too emotionally invested in a potential storm, the first person I think of is Darth 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Definitely skeptical. Verbatim by the time it gets going central areas are already starting to wrap up with precip by my eye. Coin flip like you said. Give me the precipitation and I’ll take my chances with temps. Temps are pretty borderline south of the Pike. Not too excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: Temps are pretty borderline south of the Pike. Not too excited. I don’t think there’s anything to be excited about with all these looks yet—Friday and beyond. Just have to hope to get on the board and make decent windows work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 18z NAM has a good burst of snow Friday. It's been on and off all the models. Just have to watch that one....the only reason it's even semi-interesting is the atmosphere is quite unstable friday. It gets pretty cold aloft with e marginal boundary layer and that can produce some heavier bands if anything materializes. It’s coming . Been on the train for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s coming . Been on the train for days Mini MLK melt? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Mini MLK melt? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 winter is saved! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why? Maybe we'll find out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Maybe we'll find out. Def a north-south gradient at 925mb...Kevin is kind of on the line while ORH is like -1C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 18z NAM looks a little colder than 18z RGEM, but pretty similar. Both have the burst of precip. RGEM might be tougher for south of MA/CT border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Here's 18z NAM bufkit for ORH Friday. That's not too bad looking for a period of light-to-moderate snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 On 1/3/2023 at 7:53 AM, qg_omega said: vs Today, don’t get much more stable then this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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