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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this juncture, pretty soon we'll be looking into March for these "potential's" and then all of a sudden, one model run will start showing 80's on the 384-hour prog and everyone will be like, "WTF did winter go"? 

It’s 1/4 Wiz. The last GFS run and GEFS and now the Euro showing some promise/potential for early and later next week…pretty decent look and signal, and that’s for a week from now which is 1/11…long long way from March. Kind of a silly post. 

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom_1day-3654400.thumb.png.bd9f142ad7c5b6b63cbb4db6126dd1b9.pngecmwf-deterministic-ne-t2m_f-3697600.thumb.png.9a2c04bc8d8aad6cea5dded7965df802.png

That S-isotherm (classic KU) makes that look like a Mid Atlantic special unless the Low in Maine is lifting fast.

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

That S-isotherm (classic KU) makes that look like a Mid Atlantic special unless the Low in Maine is lifting fast.

yeah, verbatim it gets shunted, but there's no way to tell where that feature will end up. this run just has all of the pieces there, which is nice to see

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21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

At this juncture, pretty soon we'll be looking into March for these "potential's" and then all of a sudden, one model run will start showing 80's on the 384-hour prog and everyone will be like, "WTF did winter go"? 

next thing you know, IT'S MAY !st!!111@!@!!!

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea my high per the euro is around 40 but in the morning Thursday. Big difference vs previous runs, which had temps crashing into low 30's starting tonight.

 I think most of SNH gets the 38-42 high pre-dawn, but then I'll take the under by Thursday afternoon/evening. Globals backed off a tad, so I think the colder push gets delayed but not denied 

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21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s 1/4 Wiz. The last GFS run and GEFS and now the Euro showing some promise/potential for early and later next week…pretty decent look and signal, and that’s for a week from now which is 1/11…long long way from March. Kind of a silly post. 

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 

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The models have backed off on the cold push Thursday am ..and Friday temps have been marginal for rain/ snow . It’s just a garbage period . There was more potential for icing Thursday during day 24-36 hours ago 

On Monday Models cut temps Like 25 degrees for the week to make the late week period interesting but the momentum stopped short of delivering if you enjoy light icing . 

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 

I think People are pressing this year .. first bc there was a very good modeled block For The 10’th- mid month in early December so folks looked ahead naturally 

then since then it’s been more due to the lack of anything being a legit threat inside 5 days so that leaves you with 7-12 day “hopes” but when there isn’t much going on thats all you got basically

and at that time frame they are more “things to watch “

 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 

I'm not sure what people are supposed to do on a weather discussion forum though....

How many times have we said a severe setup looks "interesting" but then we get a couple pulsers and that's it? Prob like 100s in the last decade and a half. But that's what we do....we look for potential understanding that a lot of times, the potential never materializes into sensible wx. If the potential always materialized, big storms or big severe outbreaks wouldn't be that exciting.

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I think People are pressing this year 

there has never been close to this much focus on threats 7 days out plus In the 11 years I have been on the board , but when there isn’t much going on thats all you got basically and at that time frame they are more “things to watch “ then real threats 

Also, we typically have at least a few threats kind of show up out of nowhere inside of 5 days every winter but that hasn't really happened this year. Those "surprise" threats typically take our attention away from clown range. Probably 12/11 is the only one that really ramped up inside of 72-84 hours this season and even that one was mostly a clipper-esque system that got western SNE the best.

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 

Kinda like your posts and threads for severe…

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Also, we typically have at least a few threats kind of show up out of nowhere inside of 5 days every winter but that hasn't really happened this year. Those "surprise" threats typically take our attention away from clown range. Probably 12/11 is the only one that really ramped up inside of 72-84 hours this season and even that one was mostly a clipper-esque system that got western SNE the best.

Ya and I edited my first post bc there was a tendency to look ahead in early December because of the big block that we knew would provide chances but since then it’s just been more of a “it’s all we got “

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure what people are supposed to do on a weather discussion forum though....

How many times have we said a severe setup looks "interesting" but then we get a couple pulsers and that's it? Prob like 100s in the last decade and a half. But that's what we do....we look for potential understanding that a lot of times, the potential never materializes into sensible wx. If the potential always materialized, big storms or big severe outbreaks wouldn't be that exciting.

I don't disagree with that at all. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussion. I mean everyone has their different motives, some just love discussing and assessing the potential, some just want the big storm, and some really want to learn more and understand the "why this happened and why this didn't happen". 

It's just more of the kickback that happens. When someone starts posting thoughts/opinions (whether backed with data or not) that goes against the overall majority, then the discussion becomes messy and is it really discussion anymore? 

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 

“Promise” was the term used for the epic fail in our backyards that was the month of December. So I’m Black Mamba snake bitten with that word. But yes, the potential is there. FML… LOL

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26 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 I think most of SNH gets the 38-42 high pre-dawn, but then I'll take the under by Thursday afternoon/evening. Globals backed off a tad, so I think the colder push gets delayed but not denied 

Agree on timing and temps. But in how these cold tucks work - to be getting delayed is to also to be getting denied. The window of cold narrows, bc the backside timing with the ULL swinging through is still the same.

The cold tuck still coming, but weak sauce. And much weaker than modeled across guidance up through yesterday.

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