jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 lol 12z Euro taken me up to 40's again tomorrow. Someone was saying ice storm at BDL? @Damage In Tolland 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At this juncture, pretty soon we'll be looking into March for these "potential's" and then all of a sudden, one model run will start showing 80's on the 384-hour prog and everyone will be like, "WTF did winter go"? It’s 1/4 Wiz. The last GFS run and GEFS and now the Euro showing some promise/potential for early and later next week…pretty decent look and signal, and that’s for a week from now which is 1/11…long long way from March. Kind of a silly post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: lol 12z Euro taken me up to 40's again tomorrow. Someone was saying ice storm at BDL? @Damage In Tolland Maybe my eyes are too slow, but to me it looks like the 40° isotherm stops at about Haverhill, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: heh there is no way that huge SE Ridge is gonna let that happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Mood flakes on friday. But warm dews and surface temps saying "white rain" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, tamarack said: Maybe my eyes are too slow, but to me it looks like the 40° isotherm stops at about Haverhill, MA Yea my high per the euro is around 40 but in the morning Thursday. Big difference vs previous runs, which had temps crashing into low 30's starting tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO Get the NS low northeast some and we’re in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: even if this wasn't a big hit verbatim, this is a really nice setup with lots of cold air if the confluence develops. great run to show the potential here IMO That S-isotherm (classic KU) makes that look like a Mid Atlantic special unless the Low in Maine is lifting fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That S-isotherm (classic KU) makes that look like a Mid Atlantic special unless the Low in Maine is lifting fast. yeah, verbatim it gets shunted, but there's no way to tell where that feature will end up. this run just has all of the pieces there, which is nice to see 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I thought it looked like some room for amplification. Doesn’t matter much at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea my high per the euro is around 40 but in the morning Thursday. Big difference vs previous runs, which had temps crashing into low 30's starting tonight. You'll be near 32 tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: At this juncture, pretty soon we'll be looking into March for these "potential's" and then all of a sudden, one model run will start showing 80's on the 384-hour prog and everyone will be like, "WTF did winter go"? next thing you know, IT'S MAY !st!!111@!@!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea my high per the euro is around 40 but in the morning Thursday. Big difference vs previous runs, which had temps crashing into low 30's starting tonight. I think most of SNH gets the 38-42 high pre-dawn, but then I'll take the under by Thursday afternoon/evening. Globals backed off a tad, so I think the colder push gets delayed but not denied 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: next thing you know, IT'S MAY !st!!111@!@!!! And he’ll be perpetually let down for 6 months. It’s better in winter when the letdown lasts just 3 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You'll be near 32 tomorrow morning. I wonder who gave him the red tag on here . He’s not a degreed met. Someone needs to ask for the actual diploma to prove it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’s 1/4 Wiz. The last GFS run and GEFS and now the Euro showing some promise/potential for early and later next week…pretty decent look and signal, and that’s for a week from now which is 1/11…long long way from March. Kind of a silly post. This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 The models have backed off on the cold push Thursday am ..and Friday temps have been marginal for rain/ snow . It’s just a garbage period . There was more potential for icing Thursday during day 24-36 hours ago On Monday Models cut temps Like 25 degrees for the week to make the late week period interesting but the momentum stopped short of delivering if you enjoy light icing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. I think People are pressing this year .. first bc there was a very good modeled block For The 10’th- mid month in early December so folks looked ahead naturally then since then it’s been more due to the lack of anything being a legit threat inside 5 days so that leaves you with 7-12 day “hopes” but when there isn’t much going on thats all you got basically and at that time frame they are more “things to watch “ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. I'm not sure what people are supposed to do on a weather discussion forum though.... How many times have we said a severe setup looks "interesting" but then we get a couple pulsers and that's it? Prob like 100s in the last decade and a half. But that's what we do....we look for potential understanding that a lot of times, the potential never materializes into sensible wx. If the potential always materialized, big storms or big severe outbreaks wouldn't be that exciting. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 the stronger storm on the 11th is now leading to a 50/50-type feature showing up on the EPS, which would lead to a lot more antecedent HP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I think People are pressing this year there has never been close to this much focus on threats 7 days out plus In the 11 years I have been on the board , but when there isn’t much going on thats all you got basically and at that time frame they are more “things to watch “ then real threats Also, we typically have at least a few threats kind of show up out of nowhere inside of 5 days every winter but that hasn't really happened this year. Those "surprise" threats typically take our attention away from clown range. Probably 12/11 is the only one that really ramped up inside of 72-84 hours this season and even that one was mostly a clipper-esque system that got western SNE the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. Kinda like your posts and threads for severe… 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Also, we typically have at least a few threats kind of show up out of nowhere inside of 5 days every winter but that hasn't really happened this year. Those "surprise" threats typically take our attention away from clown range. Probably 12/11 is the only one that really ramped up inside of 72-84 hours this season and even that one was mostly a clipper-esque system that got western SNE the best. Ya and I edited my first post bc there was a tendency to look ahead in early December because of the big block that we knew would provide chances but since then it’s just been more of a “it’s all we got “ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Quite the spread on the EPS between Maine and the SE coast, but it's a strong sig. Can't say much else at this point 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not sure what people are supposed to do on a weather discussion forum though.... How many times have we said a severe setup looks "interesting" but then we get a couple pulsers and that's it? Prob like 100s in the last decade and a half. But that's what we do....we look for potential understanding that a lot of times, the potential never materializes into sensible wx. If the potential always materialized, big storms or big severe outbreaks wouldn't be that exciting. I don't disagree with that at all. There is absolutely nothing wrong with discussion. I mean everyone has their different motives, some just love discussing and assessing the potential, some just want the big storm, and some really want to learn more and understand the "why this happened and why this didn't happen". It's just more of the kickback that happens. When someone starts posting thoughts/opinions (whether backed with data or not) that goes against the overall majority, then the discussion becomes messy and is it really discussion anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 While focus is on the LR.. I still think some surprises may be in store Friday pm and night for some accumulations in places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is my point! There have been dozens and dozens and dozens of posts the last 2-3 years with "[INSERT PERIOD] looks promising", "models look promising", "ensembles look promising". Every shortwave that shows up on guidance 5-10 days out always seems to be "promising" but what have we to show for it? If every single shortwave and signs of a trough keep getting labeled "interesting" eventually the word just means nothing. “Promise” was the term used for the epic fail in our backyards that was the month of December. So I’m Black Mamba snake bitten with that word. But yes, the potential is there. FML… LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 26 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I think most of SNH gets the 38-42 high pre-dawn, but then I'll take the under by Thursday afternoon/evening. Globals backed off a tad, so I think the colder push gets delayed but not denied Agree on timing and temps. But in how these cold tucks work - to be getting delayed is to also to be getting denied. The window of cold narrows, bc the backside timing with the ULL swinging through is still the same. The cold tuck still coming, but weak sauce. And much weaker than modeled across guidance up through yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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