STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, seeing a common theme? I was cool having December being what it was , I didn’t buy in to much for that period .So far January is getting on my nerves but I’m staying patient for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Ant laughing in his cruiser while Ray and Brett pound the hood with bats. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ant laughing in his cruiser while Ray and Brett pound the hood with bats. Like the end of Police Academy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ant laughing in his cruiser while Ray and Brett pound the hood with bats. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 I like seeing the confluence show up here. increases the chance of strong HP in SE Canada potent shortwave too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Like the end of Police Academy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GEFS also has the Jan 11-12 signal....but obviously not full-on crazy like the OP run.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GEFS look good to me for both signals. Again, all you can ask for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS look good to me for both signals. Again, all you can ask for. Was just gonna ask…this is two threats now? 11-12, and 14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 47 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice, hopefully it has the right idea. Big Euro run coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Was just gonna ask…this is two threats now? 11-12, and 14? Essentially… Yes but at this range you know I wouldn’t be surprised if this coalesced on one of those two dates preferably in the future? That’s not unprecedented model behavior. either that or… There are two events shortly spaced within 60 hours of each other but they’re more pedestrian in nature 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Essentially… Yes but at this range you know I wouldn’t be surprised if this coalesced on one of those two dates preferably in the future? That’s not unprecedented model behavior. Got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Nice, hopefully it has the right idea. Big Euro run coming up Yes, Biggest run of our lives! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Nice scooter high for the 1/14 threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice scooter high for the 1/14 threat. You think the 1/14 threat is more promising than the 12th? It looks like the airmass is a bit better so I’m almost hoping the 12th stays weak and the 14th blows up instead. The Pope brought up a good point about the ridging potentially taking us in eastern SNE out of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice scooter high for the 1/14 threat. It’s actually the more convincing of the two to be frank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Was just gonna ask…this is two threats now? 11-12, and 14? My window from early Novie was 1/6 to 1/20 to watch for a doozy....let's see how ot plays out. If that fails, then I will be worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 It’s interesting how this whole 12th through the 16th for days span has been lit up in the ensembles for so long… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS look good to me for both signals. Again, all you can ask for. Start a thread lol?!?! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 From a purely synoptic standpoint, the GEFS look pretty classic for 1/14....you have your ideal ridge placement over the Rockies...shortwave undercutting the split-flow ridge in Canada and confluence in SE Canada. Miles to go, but at this lead time, that's all you can ask for. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: Start a thread lol?!?! Because that worked so well last time lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Was just gonna ask…this is two threats now? 11-12, and 14? The 9th is the first .. the 12-13th is the 2nd. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: From a purely synoptic standpoint, the GEFS look pretty classic for 1/14....you have your ideal ridge placement over the Rockies...shortwave undercutting the split-flow ridge in Canada and confluence in SE Canada. Miles to go, but at this lead time, that's all you can ask for. Ceiling this month has always been el nino style HECS. Now, obviously ceilings often aren't reached, but I think we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The 9th is the first .. the 12-13th is the 2nd. The 9th is a minimal coastal signal not on ensembles more on the ops. The two threats on GEFS are the 11th and 14th. The 11th is the threat the gfs op just blew up, the 14th is the threat that has been showing up on ensembles for a while. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The 9th is a minimal coastal signal not on ensembles more on the ops. The two threats on GEFS are the 11th and 14th. The 11th is the threat the gfs op just blew up, the 14th is the threat that has been showing up on ensembles for a while. Yeah the 9th doesn't look all that impressive....it's been on a lot of runs bit I would be surprised if anyone saw more than advisory amounts from that. Decent chance it's mostly nothing too. Doesn't seem to have a lot of dynamics with it and airmass is marginal. Still worth watching though. But the higher end potential is definitely with the two waves after the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Up to 66.7° now, sun back out too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Got it. There are a lot of shortwaves in this flow so op runs will be very swingy with sne weenies beating Ant’s cruiser to sne weenies beating…off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly. Yada yada yada. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly. Yada yada yada. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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