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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Was just gonna ask…this is two threats now? 11-12, and 14? 

Essentially… Yes but at this range you know I wouldn’t be surprised if this coalesced on one of those two dates preferably in the future? That’s not unprecedented model behavior.

either that or… There are two events shortly spaced within 60 hours of each other but they’re more pedestrian in nature

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice scooter high for the 1/14 threat.

You think the 1/14 threat is more promising than the 12th? It looks like the airmass is a bit better so I’m almost hoping the 12th stays weak and the 14th blows up instead. The Pope brought up a good point about the ridging potentially taking us in eastern SNE out of the game. 

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From a purely synoptic standpoint, the GEFS look pretty classic for 1/14....you have your ideal ridge placement over the Rockies...shortwave undercutting the split-flow ridge in Canada and confluence in SE Canada.

Miles to go, but at this lead time, that's all you can ask for.

 

Jan4_12zGEFS210.png

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

From a purely synoptic standpoint, the GEFS look pretty classic for 1/14....you have your ideal ridge placement over the Rockies...shortwave undercutting the split-flow ridge in Canada and confluence in SE Canada.

Miles to go, but at this lead time, that's all you can ask for.

 

Jan4_12zGEFS210.png

Ceiling this month has always been el nino style HECS. Now, obviously ceilings often aren't reached, but I think we're due.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 9th is the first .. the 12-13th is the 2nd.

The 9th is a minimal coastal signal not on ensembles more on the ops.  The two threats on GEFS are the 11th and 14th.  The 11th is the threat the gfs op just blew up, the 14th is the threat that has been showing up on ensembles for a while. 

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6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

The 9th is a minimal coastal signal not on ensembles more on the ops.  The two threats on GEFS are the 11th and 14th.  The 11th is the threat the gfs op just blew up, the 14th is the threat that has been showing up on ensembles for a while. 

Yeah the 9th doesn't look all that impressive....it's been on a lot of runs bit I would be surprised if anyone saw more than advisory amounts from that. Decent chance it's mostly nothing too. Doesn't seem to have a lot of dynamics with it and airmass is marginal. Still worth watching though.

 

But the higher end potential is definitely with the two waves after the 9th.

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Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly.  Yada yada yada. 
 

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol. I really wish these signals would stop being referred to as “threats“ – I mean it really sets the wrong tonality like lacking restraint-which is something that’s very much needed for a group that seems to be too emotionally invested too quickly.  Yada yada yada. 
 

 

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