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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Classic subsume phase scenario… Very high proficiency at that. There’s no ejecta indicating that the southern stream does not outpace; it literally turns into one singular coherent vortex.

So yeah all the obvious… In terms of objective skepticism take your pick -there’s a lot of them for this. 

To that I will only say that the period between the 12th and 15th yada yada yada has been quite prevalent in the ensemble members. It’s kind of like the mode and the mean are a little extra different in this case… despite not really fitting into the index indicators, either. At least not very well. In fact I can’t see any numerical Tele connector that supports this kind of West Atlantic bombogenesis   interesting

 

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The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. 

Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine.

But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas.

I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. 

Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine.

But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas.

I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont.

There is no SE ridge. The 6-10 day and 11-15 day ensemble mean on the GEFS and EPS have lower heights off the SE coast.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. 

Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine.

But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas.

I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont.

Let me begin by stating I haven't checked long range ensembles yet...but I recall Will saying yesterday that there wasn't a big se ridge..

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not that it matters, but I don't think it would rain back that far west in reality...it doesn't tuck enough to induce due east flow.

The problem is the front lagging a la 1888. Plenty of easterly inflow aloft back to WNE. It's a weird, rare solution so we smile at it and wait for 18z.

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18 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

BTW no 60s here, 43 and cloudy in Simsbury

NAM a hair overdone with the cold, Euro overdone with the warmth. RGEM this morning looks pretty good with the colder air deep into the CTRV, torch along S coast, and low 50s around Kevin.

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20 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The cold is at least in eastern Canada, vs central/western. We have that. 

Pacific is poor and that keeps us with AN bias BUT in JANUARY, which is workable (meaning, when the arctic isn't involved) in areas with average highs in the 20's -- western MA, Vermont, interior NH and much of Maine.

But the robust SE ridge is also a problem with storms prone to warm sectoring eastern areas.

I think longitude will matter more than latitude over next few weeks. West better than north. And Northwest >> SE. Most favored areas for snow chances would be Berks and Vermont.

Are you a met?

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Just now, dendrite said:

NAM a hair overdone with the cold, Euro overdone with the warmth. RGEM this morning looks pretty good with the colder air deep into the CTRV, torch along S coast, and low 50s around Kevin.

Goofus doesn't look terrible either...maybe just a shade warm but close.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Man, that's a full-blown El Nino pattern on the GFS in clown range. Pretty weird to see in a La Nina.

Suspicious that’s why the MJO is finally finding the strength to move through phases 8-1-2. Seems to be there’s some constructive interference going on there. 

The only contention I have other than the fact that it’s completely decoupling from the La Niña Basin … Is that the last I was aware most of the wave momentum was south of the equator. 

The weekly MJO publication mentioned that those phase is correlate to colder weather over North America… obviously they are right but they’re doing it in the context of this being conflicting signals. 

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Just now, dendrite said:

I liked it better when the GFS would always have unphased trash way OTS.

Yeah we used to have 510 thicknesses with storms hitting Bermuda on every GFS run beyond 240 hours....now it  only gives us unphased fish storms when it's like 3 days before a KU.

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22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There is no SE ridge. The 6-10 day and 11-15 day ensemble mean on the GEFS and EPS have lower heights off the SE coast.

Yea that's what it is showing off and on. But I believe going to see it flex more often than not during that window. N to AN UL heights. A nagging issue.

This look at 144 is very tenuous for example--if that shortwave amplifies slightly, we easily see enough ridging to take eastern SNE out of the game. It wouldn't take much for this to look like a flatter version of the storm we are experiencing right now, which is still too warm for many. But not for far interior, Northern NH, western MA, VT and Maine.

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_25.png

 

 

 

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