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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we can get something over the next 2 weeks. 

Yes, this would go along way to soothe the burn. 
 

Question for you and Will, being such a difference in the two ensemble suites(GEFS and EPS) after the 14th or so, what’s your gut(Meteorological intuition/feelings) telling you both about which may have the better idea going forward?  

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully we can get something over the next 2 weeks. 

Realistically, The 9th is a crap shoot, The period around the 14th has a more legit shot, But the airmass really needs to improve for many, We could sneak by here on a marginal one as we approach peak climo, I've already have come to the conclusion that we will end up with another below normal season here, Third yr La Nina's in general were a little less then 50% of finishing avg snowfall.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, this would go along way to soothe the burn. 
 

Question for you and Will, being such a difference in the two ensemble suites(GEFS and EPS) after the 14th or so, what’s your gut(Meteorological intuition/feelings) telling you both about which may have the better idea going forward?  

Part of me wants to side with the GEFS, but the EPS is stubborn. I guess I could see another relaxation after whatever comes during the 12-15th or so, and then signs of another sort of reload to end the month. 

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59 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

That late March smell is in the air too. Driving to work and everything is dull and mostly brown with that dump cool feeling. Small lake that I drive by was dead calm without any ice. Ordinarily guys would be ice fishing.

Yea. Late March, or better yet late November - given sun angle and SST similarities.

 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Gonna have to watch for a bit of tuck action Thursday night over eastern areas....only takes it getting to like 30-31F to get nasty pretty quick if there's some light precip lingering.

Yeah looks likely. I'm just hoping those temps stabilize near 32 Friday and it's not catpaws at 35. 

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