RDRY Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Nothing doing until at least the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Couple inches inland on the GFS for the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Couple inches inland on the GFS for the 9th. I didn't realize the level of detail NWP got on @STILL N OF PIKE's personal training schedule. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Couple inches inland on the GFS for the 9th. It would be nice to get at least some nickel and dime storms rolling in an active pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 A Ray approved blizzard for Cape Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I didn't realize the level of detail NWP got on @STILL N OF PIKE's personal training schedule. I would argue it would be a warning event plow worthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: A Ray approved blizzard for Cape Hatteras. It would be pretty sweet if KHSE could 5x Boston’s snowfall to date, in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It would be pretty sweet if KHSE could 5x Boston’s snowfall to date, in January. They wouldn’t need a historic event to pull that off. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Energy “crashing into the west coast” can go both ways. It can keep a system from cutting too and they can also temporarily amp up the ridge downstream of it…it all depends how the trough hitting the west coast is behaving. If it is n the process of digging, then it will help amp the ridge ahead of it, if it’s in the process of weakening, then it will act more like a kicker. A lot of big dogs had energy hitting the west coast…Jan 2016, Feb 2013, Boxing Day 2010, Feb 2001, Dec 1992….those are just the ones I know. But there are likely others too. We don’t know if it will help or hurt yet. It’s one of those nuances that isn’t really known at this type of lead time. there are Kocin/Ucellini case studies of straight shot waves that rolled up upon hitting the EC longitude, with limited aft ridging to complete the total more typified planetary wave structure. I think folks get to hung up on idealized form ...and tend to start hand waving too soon when those features don't fit that preconception ... a lot faster than the should be,. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, DJln491 said: You nailed it. Gone in 12 hours. What causes that big of a difference from one model run to the next? Is that standard to see those huge swings from large storm to nothing when it is this far out? Day 10 ...simple 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 - GFS is getting happy with the N-stream ...bullying the hemisphere E of 110 W and above 40N out there. This is actually fairly typical for this guidance. Not sure how that corrects when/if it backs off on that - MJO may be less forcing given to the momentum distribution ... as modeled. However, the current behavior of the Pacific polar jet, across the Basin is rather atypical for La Nina, indicating some decoupling is likely taken(ing) place. This latter facet does lend to MJO punching through the La Nina 'firewall'. Last year something similar happened with a strong wave presentation around Phase 8 and 70..80% of the ballast was 10 S of the equator. That matters. That said, the Basin's NINO look may be receptive/entice the wave to span. What's the SOI outlook? - 12th thru the 15th are still eligible, just by numbers of respective ensemble membership. The operational version of both clusters appear to be flat outliers. No help from the teleconnectors ...as there are two events possible ( really) through the 16th, and they are sub-index mass conservation so it's going to come down to ensemble trends more so than waiting on emergence for these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1610412818238414850?s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: there are Kocin/Ucellini case studies of straight shot waves that rolled up upon hitting the EC longitude, with limited aft ridging to complete the total more typified planetary wave structure. I think folks get to hung up on idealized form ...and tend to start hand waving too soon when those features don't fit that preconception ... a lot faster than the should be,. And this is a great post, along with Wills earlier post explaining something similar. Ya got the trolls that call a system a dud from 10 days out, and then some that call for a blizzard for any potential amped system that can become a coastal. Both ends of that spectrum are absolute lunacy. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 That 12-14 period still looks ripe for something. Can’t hate that look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Snowy look starting Friday 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That 12-14 period still looks ripe for something. Can’t hate that look. Qg hates it…says pass. But he says that all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Qg hates it…says pass. But he says that all the time. Yeah he passes like the shit I take daily 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 I just want it to stop effing raining. Love working in the woods everyday but frankly today was a struggle. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, kdxken said: I just want it to stop effing raining. Love working in the woods everyday but frankly today was a struggle. So what do you do for a living…cut wood? And sell it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Yeah he passes like the shit I take daily Lmao…I love it. Very good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Snowy look starting Friday Nahh..lol not Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Nahh..lol not Friday. He didn’t say which Friday… 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Our best potential/storm will probably end up coming from a clipper diving southeast out of Canada and developing south of Long Island. I’m with ya on this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, kdxken said: https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1610412818238414850?s=19 Pretty remarkable verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’m with ya on this one C’mon…everybody knows clippers don’t exist anymore, and developing clippers…what are those? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nahh..lol not Friday. Yes Friday has potential to drop an inch or two interior and elevated. It’s on modeling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yes Friday has potential to drop an inch or two interior and elevated. It’s on modeling Too warm I’m thinking for most….we’ll see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 GEFS looks great with the shortwave for late next week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: C’mon…everybody knows clippers don’t exist anymore, and developing clippers…what are those? Lol. It has been quite some time since we've seen one of those clippers dive out of Manitoba and redevelop off the coast of Virginia and roar up the coast at a snails pace. We're overdue. We are overdue. Just not sure that this weather pattern la Nina is conducive for Clippers. Might have to wait till next year for a really good chance at a clipper system ( but there's always a chance ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted January 4, 2023 Share Posted January 4, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: So what do you do for a living…cut wood? And sell it? Yep https://youtube.com/shorts/8cTU0BlbaVQ?feature=share 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now