January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break."  I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland. 

I’m also not convinced we see that Canadian chinook look all month…there’s some notable forcing moving toward the dateline on some of the charts I was looking at on Ventrice’s site. You’d think that will produce some buckling in the N PAC and raise heights over AK as we move toward mid-month.

Im not expecting a Siberian express, but I could see some better looking airmasses start showing up. 

[Cold Miser]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.

yup. 
It's awful out there. 

Utter winter misery.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m also not convinced we see that Canadian chinook look all month…there’s some notable forcing moving toward the dateline on some of the charts I was looking at on Ventrice’s site. You’d think that will produce some buckling in the N PAC and raise heights over AK as we move toward mid-month.

Im not expecting a Siberian express, but I could see some better looking airmasses start showing up. 

The EPS actually kills everything across the Pacific for awhile and has some lower VP anomalies in the Atlantic. I'm not sure what that really means honestly. At least to me, other things will drive the Pacific, and I don't see how any sort of PAC jet lasts that long without some tropical assistance..but we'll see. 

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.

Tickling 50F here.

[CoastalWx]

Not sure what drives the PAC with this look.

 

[brooklynwx99]

the super-Nino type pattern that we're seeing does force a strong central Canada ridge, but this also increases confluence in SE Canada as a result. HP is often forced downstream of high level ridging, and that's what we're seeing on the GEFS and EPS. because of this, I'm not convinced that the airmass will be unfavorable, especially because of peak climo and a potentially strong SLP

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't mean dire in the sense that its 60 for weeks...but just dire in that guidance is offering more PAC puke and no big potential.

Still not convinced we don't see arctic air, but we don't need it.

 

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m also not convinced we see that Canadian chinook look all month…there’s some notable forcing moving toward the dateline on some of the charts I was looking at on Ventrice’s site. You’d think that will produce some buckling in the N PAC and raise heights over AK as we move toward mid-month.

Im not expecting a Siberian express, but I could see some better looking airmasses start showing up. 

Exactly...anyone looking for clarification, head over to my outlook thread and read the latest post, which actually uses the MJO filtered VP output from the Ventrice site:

And while previous attempts have failed due to the deconstructive interference pose by cool ENSO's proclivity to relegate tropical forcing to the marine continent, there are drastic, albeit not unanticipated changes taking place.

 

Here is the forecast for the progression of tropical forcing over the course of the first half of January, courtesy of Mike Ventrice:

 

Note the steady progression of the the tropical forcing, denotes by negative vertical velocities steadily progressing towards the dateline. 

This is the polar opposite of modoki la nina favored tropical forcing, which is the milder type of la nina regime that that favors forcing in the maritime continent and mild conditions on the east coast.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah Ray and I’ll note that GEFS looked better than EPS on that front. We’ll see if EPS trends more toward GEFS like it often has this season in the pacific but no guarantees. 
 

But if EPS is basically going to kill any kelvin waves, then it’s also probably going to get a lot more volatile in its forecasts with large spread given the lack of primary forcing there. Who knows. 
 

But I’d rather have the active El Niño look at least if we’re going to have marginal airmasses. It makes it more interesting to track. You don’t have a meat grinder SE ridge. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah Ray and I’ll note that GEFS looked better than EPS on that front. We’ll see if EPS trends more toward GEFS like it often has this season in the pacific but no guarantees. 
 

But if EPS is basically going to kill any kelvin waves, then it’s also probably going to get a lot more volatile in its forecasts with large spread given the lack of primary forcing there. Who knows. 
 

But I’d rather have the active El Niño look at least if we’re going to have marginal airmasses. It makes it more interesting to track. You don’t have a meat grinder SE ridge. 

Some of us have been saying all along that the GEFS have been better with respect to the Pacific. I'm betting on that to continue, but we'll see.

[CoastalWx]

This is the EPS. Because the previous graphic I posted is 5S-10N latitude, it makes it look like the MJO is dead. In reality it's further south. I think you want the actual forcing to be a bit further north...but regardless..I don't think this is a PAC firehose look. So yeah, maybe we see less troughing near Bering Sea-GOAK area. I don't really have confidence either way lol.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.

How are the kids doing this afternoon as they get home from school and are cooped up inside with you? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is the EPS. Because the previous graphic I posted is 5S-10N latitude, it makes it look like the MJO is dead. In reality it's further south. I think you want the actual forcing to be a bit further north...but regardless..I don't think this is a PAC firehose look. So yeah, maybe we see less troughing near Bering Sea-GOAK area. I don't really have confidence either way lol.

 

That still looks much more like a nice forcing regime than a warm one.

[weathafella]

26 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

yup. 
It's awful out there. 

Utter winter misery.

I like it knowing I’m in the minority.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How are the kids doing this afternoon as they get home from school and are cooped up inside with you? 

I'm worried for them.

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm worried for them.

Teach them winter games of yore?  

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the super-Nino type pattern that we're seeing does force a strong central Canada ridge, but this also increases confluence in SE Canada as a result. HP is often forced downstream of high level ridging, and that's what we're seeing on the GEFS and EPS. because of this, I'm not convinced that the airmass will be unfavorable, especially because of peak climo and a potentially strong SLP

 

 

Using climo blankedly can certainly have its pitfalls. 

Snow cover, soil temps, lake temps, ocean temps all have a say in it. Broadly speaking, none of these variables are near Jan 3rd norms, for the region as a whole. The one key exception, of course, is the sun angle, which is fixed. But saying it's peak climo right now creates a forecast error trap given the background context. The world around us needs to look like Jan 3.... We can swing back and mean revert to the climate calendar with a string of BN days, but until that happens....caution.

 

 

 

 

[weathafella]

This is how we did 2012-13——a warm but rather snowy winter backloaded.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is the EPS. Because the previous graphic I posted is 5S-10N latitude, it makes it look like the MJO is dead. In reality it's further south. I think you want the actual forcing to be a bit further north...but regardless..I don't think this is a PAC firehose look. So yeah, maybe we see less troughing near Bering Sea-GOAK area. I don't really have confidence either way lol.

 

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather.

By early Feb.. Kids looking for scooter in the house ..wife is looking for him .. they find him behind a type writer  like jack Nickolson in the shining “All -PNA and garbage airmass make CP a rainy place “ written over and over 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Strong discussion folks.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

By early Feb.. Kids looking for scooter in the house ..wife is looking for him .. they find him behind a type writer  like jack Nickolson in the shining “All -PNA and garbage airmass make CP a rainy place “ written over and over 

Look at Korn's "Falling away from me" video. That Dad might be me. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

It is close, no argument here. 

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

This isn't 1960. Our remote sensing capabilities are pretty darn good for analyzing components of the MJO. That along with tribal accounts of migratory birds get us to a good point.

[Baroclinic Zone]

We heavy deluge right now

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

Wasn’t Ray’s post strictly replying to equatorial SSTS in the ENSO region?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

Some of us use road kill to get a good handle on the coming pattern. How are the deer and wild turkeys faring in that area? Quite a few kill’s recently?

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Do you guys ever worry about how poorly sampled that area is? Like you're analyzing an illusion because the data is so sparce?

Well, I can't control that....only deal with data that I can access. Probably....

[STILL N OF PIKE]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some of us use road kill to get a good handle on the coming pattern. How are the deer and wild turkeys faring in that area? Quite a few kill’s recently?

In NH good road kill is picked up quickly and skinned and cooked in a jiffy . Good eatens  

[weatherwiz]

I still say we need to see significant changes to the pattern over Russia/Asia with regards to jet stream structure/evolution there before we see any meaningful changes occur within the Pacific. Everytime we start to see models "look" favorable going out past 6-7+ days, as we get closer, we just revert back to the same background state. We need things to change in a big way. Otherwise its just the same themed crap of horrible antecedent airmasses then bitterly cold/dry behind the system and then rinse and repeat when it's time for the next one. This isn't going to change until there is a drastic overhaul somewhere and for something to spark that overhaul.