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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro poppin 65-70 south of the Pike tomorrow. Really jelly that we're getting wedged up here.

I feel like the gradient will be tighter than it's showing. I can envison a pretty hard boundary between like 45 and 62, probably somewhere in MA

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2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

I feel like the gradient will be tighter than it's showing. I can envison a pretty hard boundary between like 45 and 62, probably somewhere in MA

I'm sure this is the set up that I'll "jackpot"  in...with the grand prize being 41 and drizzle amid bare, muddy ground. :axe:

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41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think 1/9 is mostly an interior deal if it happens. Airmass isn’t super fresh but it’s not total puke either. So we’ll see if this one keeps trending better. 

It’s mid January and there’s a lot of action on the models. This is good. Details to play out.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro not gonna be enough this run for 1/9 (still has an area of confluence shunting this south) but that was a significant improvement from 00z so something to keep an eye on. 

I have a lot of writing to do tomorrow....billing issues bogged me down too much today.

Insurance companies blow big ones

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. 

Yeah definitely a higher tendency for heights there compared to 00z. And despite the lack of arctic air, a bit of NW flow from Canada helps during peak climo. You can see that with the 500mb height lines...it's not a true PAC firehose from Guam. I noticed a subtle trend there on the 00z EPS too.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. 

This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term considering how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

@CoastalWx

Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. 

250mb winds are also retreating westward.  Hopefully we can finally build some ridging up into AK.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term given how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year.

I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break."  I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break."  I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland. 

I don't mean dire in the sense that its 60 for weeks...but just dire in that guidance is offering more PAC puke and no big potential.

Still not convinced we don't see arctic air, but we don't need it.

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