wx2fish Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Euro poppin 65-70 south of the Pike tomorrow. Really jelly that we're getting wedged up here. I feel like the gradient will be tighter than it's showing. I can envison a pretty hard boundary between like 45 and 62, probably somewhere in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No issue with breaking balls, but at least wait for it to actually bust. I saw bullish and saw a great opportunity to use a play on words. That’s all it was . It wasn’t a bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, wx2fish said: I feel like the gradient will be tighter than it's showing. I can envison a pretty hard boundary between like 45 and 62, probably somewhere in MA SE MA will sector .. most others will not . Nam with the W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: I feel like the gradient will be tighter than it's showing. I can envison a pretty hard boundary between like 45 and 62, probably somewhere in MA I'm sure this is the set up that I'll "jackpot" in...with the grand prize being 41 and drizzle amid bare, muddy ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I saw bullish and saw a great opportunity to use a play on words. That’s all it was . It wasn’t a bust Gotcha....misperception on my part given the tone in here reading back a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: SE MA will sector .. most others will not . Nam with the W The boundary should drape NW to SE, Ct has best shot to torch .. esp SW areas but you will probably be gliding by budding tulips with temps Near 50 for your morning prance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Euro looking quite a bit more intriguing through 120h than previous runs for 1/9. Kind of a classic split flow look here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 41 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I think 1/9 is mostly an interior deal if it happens. Airmass isn’t super fresh but it’s not total puke either. So we’ll see if this one keeps trending better. It’s mid January and there’s a lot of action on the models. This is good. Details to play out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is it safe? Are we through the desprssive episode in here and back to mania? Because guess what...its going to snow this month, and probably a good deal for most of us. Ray Storm Jan 13-15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The boundary should drape NW to SE, Ct has best shot to torch .. esp SW areas but you will probably be gliding by budding tulips with temps Near 50 for your morning prance Don’t care either way . Nothing to protect all the way to Quebec province 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Euro not gonna be enough this run for 1/9 (still has an area of confluence shunting this south) but that was a significant improvement from 00z so something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yes please Should feel awesome: we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro not gonna be enough this run for 1/9 (still has an area of confluence shunting this south) but that was a significant improvement from 00z so something to keep an eye on. I have a lot of writing to do tomorrow....billing issues bogged me down too much today. Insurance companies blow big ones 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should feel awesome: we take I'll take the under on 60s there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take the undies off any 60s+ here. Hey, they are experienced... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t care either way . Nothing to protect all the way to Quebec province Yea, the one time I don't want to win...and guess what.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 @CoastalWx Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 What a brutal day. Moderate rain and temperatures in the upper 30s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Ray Storm Jan 13-15? WOW....players for the big dance are starting to show up. Just need guidance to play the right tone of music.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the one time I don't want to win...and guess what.. NE MA knows how to do one thing well. When in doubt, wedge it out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, wx2fish said: NE MA knows how to do one thing well. When in doubt, wedge it out! It'd be cool if there was a pack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. Yeah definitely a higher tendency for heights there compared to 00z. And despite the lack of arctic air, a bit of NW flow from Canada helps during peak climo. You can see that with the 500mb height lines...it's not a true PAC firehose from Guam. I noticed a subtle trend there on the 00z EPS too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: ...The 13th period does have a lot of potential, Maybe it won’t pan out but the pattern looks favorable during that window. ... indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term considering how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx Improvemts in GEFS late in the run? Looked like higher heights working into AK. I’m hoping guidance will start reacting more to the tropical forcing as we get closer. Seems like we do get into a more favorable look sometime mid-month. 250mb winds are also retreating westward. Hopefully we can finally build some ridging up into AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: It'd be cool if there was a pack... Its definitely irrelevant without a pack, but I do find these CAD into potential cold tuck setups interesting. Granted I'd rather have a day in the 60s at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This, in addition to the NY holiday, is why I stepped back for a few days....I don't buy the dire long term given how I expect tropical forcing to materialize, but I know that would fall on deaf ears given the mood in here, so just didn't bother...aside from that last bog update prior to the new year. I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break." I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don't think the pattern was ever dire....but when things reverted back again....internally I basically felt like "give me a fucking break." I'm not sure it ever gets that great...but the one thing I mentioned earlier, is that we really don't have a SE ridge. So maybe the airmasses are marginal, but workable..especially inland. I don't mean dire in the sense that its 60 for weeks...but just dire in that guidance is offering more PAC puke and no big potential. Still not convinced we don't see arctic air, but we don't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 still a strong signal for the potential around the 15th. this has been showing up for days now and it coincides with a strong W US ridge spike 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2023 Share Posted January 3, 2023 All I know is that it is horrifying outside currently. 40s and rain is about as bad as it gets....maybe Ray's 32.00001F rain is worse..but this is Kurt Cobain weather. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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