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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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47 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I have a feeling Chicago will have some of its disappointment salved in the next 14 days or so.  Then we hope that the models are correct in reforming the big Gulf of Alaska cyclones further and further westward.  I'm cautiously optimistic.

 Chicago is not where you want to be.  MSP perhaps

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Three unrelated thoughts
1 - agree with recent sentiment. What happened to the good ole fashioned 4-8” storms of the early 90s? Bring them back.
2 - unfathomable that we went through a decently cold December and could not cash in for much of anything (12/9 was a non factor here).
3 - with a January thaw incoming till 1/7 or so, we are on the clock in a big way to put up or go home. Feels like the last few years that if you don’t have decent pack by 2/7 or so, the sun angles are coming for you. If we can’t put up some points on the board by MLK, bring on an early spring before the Groundhog calls it.


.

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3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

The polar vortex is not only expected to strengthen but it’s also expected to become circular in shape. A strong polar vortex isn’t good but it’s not a death sentence for winter weather in the east. A strong and circular polar vortex is a death sentence, that explains why the models warm us up the first week of Jan. The severe polar vortex disruption that is expected to occur after that is very promising for the second week of Jan and later.

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the pattern will flip around the 10th as the ULL off the WC retrogrades westward towards the Aleutians when the Pacific jet retracts

this is well agreed upon by ensembles and it makes sense, so this is a break more than anything else. the hints of Scandinavian ridging also point towards renewed blocking once into the last couple weeks of the month. the -EPO/+PNA would also scour out any residual Pacific air relatively quickly, so there wouldn't be a week or two of delay, especially under peak climo

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z200_speed-1672034400-1672725600-1673416800-20-2.thumb.gif.2a1648b1fbe30c09f1e747de3fc2c2e3.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1672012800-1672704000-1673395200-20-2.thumb.gif.87379bce1b5cb5144659d01e6ca4b1ca.gif

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25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pattern will flip around the 10th as the ULL off the WC retrogrades westward towards the Aleutians when the Pacific jet retracts

this is well agreed upon by ensembles and it makes sense, so this is a break more than anything else. the hints of Scandinavian ridging also point towards renewed blocking once into the last couple weeks of the month. the -EPO/+PNA would also scour out any residual Pacific air relatively quickly, so there wouldn't be a week or two of delay, especially under peak climo

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z200_speed-1672034400-1672725600-1673416800-20-2.thumb.gif.2a1648b1fbe30c09f1e747de3fc2c2e3.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1672012800-1672704000-1673395200-20-2.thumb.gif.87379bce1b5cb5144659d01e6ca4b1ca.gif

Stinkin' charts better work out this time or folks are going to be hunting geese.

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