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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Agree Will... I'm in no way a significant poster on here, so maybe I shouldn't comment, but it is becoming unreadable.  The # of constructive post v the # of whinning, non meteorology post has become stunning.   Maybe each thread should have 2 sections; a serious section and non serious / bullshit section.  Scrolling through a threat looking for serious posts has gotten tedious... 

I nominate this guy to take my vacant position. 

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

30F CAD set up.  Roads will be fine but trees etc. will look pretty!

I’m very skeptical of accumulating snows with the later pulse of energy on the gfs given lack of other model support, but we’ve juiced up in some other events close to game time so maybe a minor event down here remains on the table. 

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m just going to start aggressively  moving the whining posts to the panic room thread. 
 

There’s actually some events to track now and even though many don’t care about an inland icing threat or marginal snow threat, some still do so the whiners/don’t carers can exit this thread or we will do it for them. 

Call Me Elf One More Time. GIF - Holidayclassics Elf - Discover & Share ...

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5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m very skeptical of accumulating snows with the later pulse of energy on the gfs given lack of other model support, but we’ve juiced up in some other events close to game time so maybe a minor event down here remains on the table. 

I think this particular time it’s going to be more right than wrong. Starting to see other guidance slowly move in that direction.  My guess is 1-4” event much of SNE .. N & W of 95 .  Pretty strong vort passing just south should yield at minimum fits and bursts 

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Not sure what the big deal is... It's only annoying if you bother to read it. 

Here's an idea, ... how modular is this software?  Can it be added to??   There could be a three button selections added, where the post won't post unless one of the buttons/ ( use radio buttons) is selected.   The options are, constructive comment, commiseration/bitching, ...I think my trolling is subversive enough and no one sees what I'm up to... 

No but something like that.  Then, each post has a green, yellow and red small bar, where green is constructive, yellow is bitch session.  Then a user can go into their profile settings and select, "only read green posts" ...and on and so on. 

I mean, obviously ...no troll is going to openly admit their a douche so that button's more a gag.  But that way, the person is personally holding themselves accountable for their contribution.  If they then get 5 pp'ed, and or suspended for a time, or banned, you can hand them their statistics.  Every person is afforded one bitch session a day ...week, whatever.   

I have a feeling that engineering "solutions" won't work.  With all the advertising this site tries to expose, it's obviously adding up hits on the site. So we can't really get into the habit of shutting hits down.   Humanity IS in fact big trolling douchebag of dysfunctional assholes, in a jejune act of constructivism only when aspects are feeding their psychotropic addiction to 'blue light' dystopian cinema, ...so, successfully limiting would make this no longer economically viable.  

L O L, but I'm not a cynical at all -

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46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Really icy look setting up for much of interior SNE from Thursday pm on. Suspect we see a lot of high temps being slashed starting with Wednesday highs onward . Seeing a lot of 60’s being forecast 

You’ll be jogging in shorts Wednesday. 

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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll be jogging in shorts Wednesday. 

I bet it stays in 40’s all day .. so yes shorts . Last two days which were supposed to be 50’s had daytime highs of 41 and 44. And we wore shorts .

And BTW.. it’s not called jogging in the 2000’s. It’s called running .

Olivia Newton John jogged in Xanadu 

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.
Not terrible I guess
 
Tuesday
A chance of snow before 8am, then rain. Patchy fog after 9am. High near 45. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
Tuesday Night
Rain, mainly before 8pm. Patchy fog. Low around 41. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Rain likely, mainly after 2pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 52. Southwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Rain. Patchy fog. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday
Rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 2pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 5pm. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 35. Northeast wind around 8 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.
Thursday Night
A chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then a chance of snow. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 27. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday
A chance of snow. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 34. Northeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A chance of snow before 8pm. Patchy fog before 10pm. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%
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51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think this particular time it’s going to be more right than wrong. Starting to see other guidance slowly move in that direction.  My guess is 1-4” event much of SNE .. N & W of 95 .  Pretty strong vort passing just south should yield at minimum fits and bursts 

I've been watching this first one for a while, appear/disappear, and we still have a shot at a marginal event, but I think antecedent airmass will be the enemy until some CAD pushes in, there is a strong high to the north, too bad the low wasn't a bit stronger... still like the period mid month, and possibly a small event on between, but at least there are s/w's to track as we approach what's historically our best climo for big snows.

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I bet it stays in 40’s all day .. so yes shorts . Last two days which were supposed to be 50’s had daytime highs of 41 and 44. And we wore shorts .

And BTW.. it’s not called jogging in the 2000’s. It’s called running .

Olivia Newton John jogged in Xanadu 

You’ll be jogging in mild weather. 

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17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

18z GFS kept something on the map.

Just get the grass covered fully again would go a long way.

D1F13627-9C66-4579-BC55-423671C2A243.thumb.png.8c36f7d5dc961d5935cce6ad00154af7.png

that would lighten spirits a lot it seems, just to at least be white and not crap brown, staying positive the snow gods deliver, especially for nne, ski country could use it

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m very skeptical of accumulating snows with the later pulse of energy on the gfs given lack of other model support, but we’ve juiced up in some other events close to game time so maybe a minor event down here remains on the table. 

I’m more intrigued with the period after. There’s a juiced up split flow environment. Not the coldest look but it’s active. 

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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’ll be jogging in mild weather. 

You hate to see it 

euro has him warm Wednesday at 12z , but “chilly ? Mid 40’s in Boston . I saw a meso low on the morning 12z 3k nam (the coldest model run so far ) that tucked things pretty good and kept many pike north in 30’s 

I would guess if that meso low Was a tad further south and at least as strong as the 3k nam showed this am for tolland and ct Could avoid the 60 degree mark . But I mean why would you want to avoid it Wednesday , I’d take 60 in am . The icing Hope is more Thursday am in parts of SNE 

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6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You hate to see it 

euro has him warm Wednesday at 12z , but “chilly ? Mid 40’s in Boston . I saw a meso low on the morning 12z 3k nam (the coldest model run so far ) that tucked things pretty good and kept many pike north in 30’s 

I would guess if that meso low Was a tad further south and at least as strong as the 3k nam showed this am for tolland and ct Could avoid the 60 degree mark . But I mean why would you want to avoid it Wednesday , I’d take 60 in am . The icing Hope is more Thursday am in parts of SNE 

It’s January with a 1042mb HP nosing in .. we wouldn’t take the warm guidance in May.. why would we ever take it in early Jan?

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s January with a 1042mb HP nosing in .. we wouldn’t take the warm guidance in May.. why would we ever take it in early Jan?

I can see A much easier  case for Thursday am being colder than modeled . I mean we have seen temps taken down quite hugely in the last 24 hours for that time frame so I’m interested .

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