January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I believe it’s .50” or mire..?

I’d say anything over .25 is legit, but I believe ice storm warning criteria is .50”.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

You know that's what I've been saying all along. I've said it in a very easy and simple way originally, but I just had people give me the weenie symbol or make a comment about my post. It is embarrassing. I'm 51, have a very good job. Love, daughter. We just adopted. Life is good. But when I come on here, it's always chaos, people putting people down. Even with my comments, when I try to cool things down, I get put down.

 I come on here because I want to discuss the weather. I want to discuss what things might be coming. If it doesn't snow it doesn't snow. It's just the way it is. But there's so many people in here that just attack and put down others for what they have to say. It's actually a joke.

The thought has crossed my mind to just stop coming on here. But I keep coming because I'm hoping that people can just discuss the weather. Even if it's something small, sometimes that leads to something larger. Or something that surprises us. That's what made me fall in love with the whether when I was a kid. Even in today's modern technology, there are surprises and things we can't predict. 

Hope this gets through to done off you and we get a real forum going.

 

 

 

Everybody wants to be a comedian too…that gets old too.  It’s bad now cuz there hasn’t really been any snow yet for most.  It’ll calm down some if we can pull off a snow event.  Just take a break, I’ve done that a few times, it’s a good thing. Get away from the whiners and complainers. 

[greenmtnwx]

I’m surprised at the negativity going forward. Late week looks kind of interesting and seems like could be a couple chances behind it. Before the 500mb pattern looked good but nothing really materialized. Now we actually have models showing an interesting mid range period at the surface and all anyone wants to do is complain about the 300hr 500 mb. Who gives a f—k.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not likely gonna see anything here, nor do I care.  Pattern is garbage.

There’s more to SNE than just eastern mass. That GFS at 12z was decent for a lot of the area..except your area.  And I know you don’t really care, but just saying what that run showed at 12z. 

[weathafella]

@Allsnow What’s wrong with a dateline ridge?   It served us well 2007-08 despite a rather positive NAO/AO.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’m surprised at the negativity going forward. Late week looks kind of interesting and seems like could be a couple chances behind it. Before the 500mb pattern looked good but nothing really materialized. Now we actually have models showing an interesting mid range period at the surface and all anyone wants to do is complain about the 300hr 500 mb. Who gives a f—k.

Wow…what did you do with GreenMountain coffee? He’s a new man. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…what did you do with GreenMountain coffee? He’s a new man. 

Well he was right to have concerns a month ago and I never thought he was trolling.

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d say anything over .25 is legit, but I believe ice storm warning criteria is .50”.

Ya I was answering the ice storm criteria question.  But ya, .25 is a problem too. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, weathafella said:

Well he was right to have concerns a month ago and I never thought he was trolling.

Fair enough. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

@Allsnow What’s wrong with a dateline ridge?   It served us well 2007-08 despite a rather positive NAO/AO.

It mostly sucks where he is unless there’s good Atlantic blocking. But it can work for us. 
 

6 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

I’m surprised at the negativity going forward. Late week looks kind of interesting and seems like could be a couple chances behind it. Before the 500mb pattern looked good but nothing really materialized. Now we actually have models showing an interesting mid range period at the surface and all anyone wants to do is complain about the 300hr 500 mb. Who gives a f—k.

If it snows, nobody is going to remember any of the pattern talk. Snowfall is the end-all regardless of what the pattern shows. 

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

@Allsnow What’s wrong with a dateline ridge?   It served us well 2007-08 despite a rather positive NAO/AO.

Depends on how much confluence to the north we have  and strength of southeast ridge. I think we can all agree the dateline ridge with trough in the west hasn’t really been a snowy look for our areas in years 

[Allsnow]

Storm signal still on the eps around the 14th

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Been handling the PAC good though.

Not anymore lol....it was the most Gung Ho 5 days ago in the 12-16 range with the PNA ridge and now it appears it'll be wrong

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Storm signal still on the eps around the 14th

yeah, this is impressive for this lead time. it's pretty much all we got right now, so we'll see what happens

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Everybody wants to be a comedian too…that gets old too.  It’s bad now cuz there hasn’t really been any snow yet for most.  It’ll calm down some if we can pull off a snow event.  Just take a break, I’ve done that a few times, it’s a good thing. Get away from the whiners and complainers. 

I’d much rather have people try to be funny through the down periods than incessantly miserable.

At the end of the day though, and I mean this sincerely, daily winter tracking—the monotony of watching models, identifying “threats”, and following them to conclusion is awful. I loathe it. It’s more soap opera than substance most of the time. 

It doesn’t matter the subforum. It doesn’t matter if the season is front-loaded, back-loaded, or nonexistent. Trying to find snow is far more emotional to wx enthusiasts around here than any other season or type of weather. Barely anything is learned (again talking about daily tracking not the outlook or broader longwave pattern analysis which can be educational), clearly people’s moods are affected, and it brings out the dumbest in people—myself squared included in that. 

The real joy comes from a consistent dopamine drip of models and observing snow. Virtually all the rest is drudgery. To me at least.

[Baroclinic Zone]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There’s more to SNE than just eastern mass. That GFS at 12z was decent for a lot of the area..except your area.  And I know you don’t really care, but just saying what that run showed at 12z. 

Enjoy your nuisance snow.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Ya euro pretty much lost interest in the 6’th deal this run , not sure it’s 100% dead but I don’t see much precip left at all 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d much rather have people try to be funny through the down periods than incessantly miserable.

At the end of the day though, and I mean this sincerely, daily winter tracking—the monotony of watching models, identifying “threats”, and following them to conclusion is awful. I loathe it. It’s more soap opera than substance most of the time. 

It doesn’t matter the subforum. It doesn’t matter if the season is front-loaded, back-loaded, or nonexistent. Trying to find snow is far more emotional to wx enthusiasts around here than any other season or type of weather. Barely anything is learned (again talking about daily tracking not the outlook or broader longwave pattern analysis which can be educational), clearly people’s moods are affected, and it brings out the dumbest in people—myself squared included in that. 

The real joy comes from a consistent dopamine drip of models and observing snow. Virtually all the rest is drudgery. To me at least.

Yes 

[qg_omega]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, this is impressive for this lead time. it's pretty much all we got right now, so we'll see what happens

Strong PAC jet will ridge rolling over, that’s not going to do it.  Nothing to disrupt the negative PNA.  No changes to my thoughts from November.  This is how you ratter, lots of very bad forecasts this year

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS all alone with some snow for SNE on the 5-7th.

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Strong PAC jet will ridge rolling over, that’s not going to do it.  Nothing to disrupt the negative PNA.  No changes to my thoughts from November.  This is how you ratter, lots of very bad forecasts this year

Well, all I can say is I hope you are wrong. :-)

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Enjoy your nuisance snow.

Lol I’ll enjoy any snow…just pointing it out.

It showed snow, Nuisance or not. Most of the time it is nuisance stuff. But when that whining lil girl up the street from you cry’s like a lil school girl, it’s ok?  No it’s not ok. Nuisance or not..we’ll take what we can get. And we’ll Add it to the season with glee. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, all I can say is I hope you are wrong. :-)

Don’t even respond to that Trash.  Don’t give him the satisfaction. When it snows you won’t hear or see him around. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol I’ll enjoy any snow…just pointing it out.

It showed snow, Nuisance or not. Most of the time it is nuisance stuff. But when that whining lil girl up the street from you cry’s like a lil school girl, it’s ok?  No it’s not ok. Nuisance or not..we’ll take what we can get. And we’ll Add it to the season with glee. 

Amazing how much one person gets under your skin.  Why not just ignore him?

I'm still not convinced it's a snow threat or much of a threat at all.

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM trying to lock in the cold

[ROOSTA]

It's never going to snow again in SNE. 
Emotional attachment to something that will never be forecasted perfectly, chaos at best. It'll be what it'll be, suck-it-up cupcakes.
It's 82F here, the only thing to look forward to is a frontal passage with plunging temps of maybe 10-15 degrees.
You never know how good it is till it's gone. Addiction to SNOW is never sedated always looking for the next fix. Could be 5' of snow on the ground and wanting more.
Thunderstorms, Tropics are more frequent than a 1' storm (aside from a CAT5) and gets the adrenaline pumping while tracking. There is something about snow that's different, it's magic and not as damaging.

There is a storm (snow) within the next two weeks, watch the ENS.        

[Damage In Tolland]

7 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a beast of a HP showing up that wasn’t before . Wouldn’t be totally shocking in the record warmth and 60’s/50’s end up staying SW of the region . Nam will pick up on it first if it happens 

Pumps n a bump 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Amazing how much one person gets under your skin.  Why not just ignore him?

I'm still not convinced it's a snow threat or much of a threat at all.

I hate pussy whiners….I just pointed out what 12z showed. I didn’t hype it or whine about it. 

 

I agree…probably shits the bed, but it’s all we got to track at the moment thats within a few days of the present. So theres that. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z NAM trying to lock in the cold

For when?  Mid 50s Wed.

[greenmtnwx]

15 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

GFS all alone with some snow for SNE on the 5-7th.

And it’s the best model. The Euro sucks, the GEM is hot garbage and the GFS has significantly improved and done steadily well the last year. 
 

it’s gonna snow Friday. Away from the coast from interior mass up through the mountains it’s gonna snow. 3 snow events through the next two weeks, abd I think one could score on the coast.