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January 2023 Obs/Discussion


Torch Tiger
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2 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

LMAO. I logged back in after Xmas at the right time. Happy new year! All joked aside, please don't b*tch every post. Just take a little break. It's just snow. We'll all be fine 

About 95% of the posts are some sort of bitching, lol.  It's been a rough go so far

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2 minutes ago, FPizz said:

About 95% of the posts are some sort of bitching, lol.  It's been a rough go so far

Exactly.  
GFS just gave a lot of SNE advisory snow…and nobody except Scott and I need snow mentioned it…yet there’s dozens and dozens of posts about 384 hr ensemble run.  

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Welcome to my childhood. Enjoy. 

This is the silver lining of the last few years. Some of these younger snow-entitled spoiled brats who never saw more than a couple cruddy years in a row can feel the sting a little bit. 

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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How are other sub forums of snow lovers holding up ,any idea 

I think our melts have been better than all other subforums combined this season. 

This is my go-to for The Bachelor style fights, love scenes, and implosions. 

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It does kind of make one wonder if this is all prologue to some kind of fluke February heat burst ridge. 

We had something similar to that ... at least 3 times in the last 7 year's worth of winters.  I recall each one, where nestled in a week of general excessive positive anomalies both in surface and aloft with the synoptic metrics, ...we put up temperatures close to if not exceeding 80 F

 ...in February.  

Those happened in both ENSO states, btw  ;)

Plus currently what's happening in midriff latitudes of Europe...  To mention, C-fuckum-C. Also, La Nina climatology has a precedence of early springs.  Some of the more notable NE U.S. SE Canadian warm springs in history were preceded by La Ninas... we weren't coupled very well last year or the year before, either. Assuming we do couple with that base-line ENSO state ...these current model projections that completely and utterly took the rug out from under the erstwhile +PNA look out there in time we had been following hmm.   

You know, they may not happen and it may prove hiccup cycle, but if we end up in another one of these February premature tulip pushing warm blasts, could we really say the writing wasn't on the wall?   

 

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All kidding and trolling aside, there's nothing big on the near horizon so hope for scraps this week and then we'll see how it goes next week.

There doesn't seem to be much potent cold in the long range for most of the CONUS, but ens have been cold enough for snow in our region. So hope for the best. Maybe toward mid month we can get into something a little more favorable.

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12z GEFS Looks to improve by mid-month.

There’s been a wave showing up on the GEFS a few runs in a row now for the 12-14th. EPS has it too I suppose.

12z Canadian showed the wave in C US at end of run, but didn’t look too great. Only long range period worth watching right now imo
251dcb58e2c3c93caed6088f0fbdc974.jpg


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