512high Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s cooling them down slowly. Ocean temps weren’t the problem though overall. Thanks Scott... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 2 hours ago, bwt3650 said: Not to piss anyone off, but this grinch was much better than some of the past. We got about 8” and the fake snow outlook looks decent the next few days. Major disaster avoided for the northern green ski resorts. . Definitely not as bad as 2020, as I agree there, but I think there are more without power this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 GFS says to start the lawn thread on Jan 1. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 24, 2022 Author Share Posted December 24, 2022 20 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS says to start the lawn thread on Jan 1. Yeah, incredibly warm run right through 384. Actually a bit cooler week 2 but not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 Greater winter enthusiasm rests their hopes on 'model magnification' parlaying to just shit, as opposed to actually making them eat it. There's a fair chance that something like amplitude bias could be in play. But, we just are coming through a fairly robust spike in the PNA index, and wound up a big signal too far west. I don't know if it applies to this PNA in general? Maybe it does, and so perhaps this subtle relaxation (gosh forbid it goes negative!) could certainly flag a disproportionately warm signal over eastern N/A in the same vein. That seems to be where the operational GFS ( and the ensemble mean from 00z through 12z runs weren't far behind, frankly) appears to be heading. A west biased +PNA --> -PNAP = ? How much so, remains to be seen. The other aspect I'm seeing is a tendency for 'buckled' flow up in Canada... I'm not convinced the hemisphere on our side is in the 'AA' phase... That means we could end up with over top high pressure at times. 'Be looking for that. Pattern post mortem: I'm personally a bit surprised that we just traversed a 2.5 week steady rise in the PNA, culminating in a total d(index) of nearly +3 SDs, and this is all we really have to show for it. We did something similar to this PNA modality back in the run up to the October 2011 event, and ended up with a historic snow storm before Halloween. Nevertheless... I have 1.5" of crud and/or dust for that journey around this typically snowy part of N-central Mass, 1.5 months later relative to time of year. The real troubling aspect is not the snow ... We saw the big bucket totals. But that we witnessed a minimum of 3 complete -EPO cycles amid the favorable domain region, with a robust -NAO interim, and will finish the month above normal at SNE's 4 majors. f---ed I was musing to self that perhaps this recent 'hemispheric event' ( which it really was regardless of myopic snow requirement which really means nothing to that veracious assessment), was so powerful that it in a way 'made up' for it all. But to do that in one dose meant too much power - again, symbolically. I would have taken half this beast and parsed it out a couple of times under the -NAO block we had last week, and we'd 'ave done just fine. But we get this 'red spot' on Earth thing so anomalous is violates wave spacing climatology. Impressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 24, 2022 Share Posted December 24, 2022 So what are you actually saying Tip….???? Lol. Hard to parlay all of that into normal English. I’ve had a few adult beverages already…so maybe that’s part of it? Merry Xmas all! In the “can” posting boys….you all know the deal. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So what are you actually saying Tip….???? Lol. Hard to parlay all of that into normal English. I’ve had a few adult beverages already…so maybe that’s part of it? Merry Xmas all! In the “can” posting boys….you all know the deal. I just do it out in the open..now I’m solitary watching football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Should be a better pattern by 1/15 but probably not before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Greater winter enthusiasm rests their hopes on 'model magnification' parlaying to just shit, as opposed to actually making them eat it. There's a fair chance that something like amplitude bias could be in play. But, we just are coming through a fairly robust spike in the PNA index, and wound up a big signal too far west. I don't know if it applies to this PNA in general? Maybe it does, and so perhaps this subtle relaxation (gosh forbid it goes negative!) could certainly flag a disproportionately warm signal over eastern N/A in the same vein. That seems to be where the operational GFS ( and the ensemble mean from 00z through 12z runs weren't far behind, frankly) appears to be heading. A west biased +PNA --> -PNAP = ? How much so, remains to be seen. The other aspect I'm seeing is a tendency for 'buckled' flow up in Canada... I'm not convinced the hemisphere on our side is in the 'AA' phase... That means we could end up with over top high pressure at times. 'Be looking for that. Pattern post mortem: I'm personally a bit surprised that we just traversed a 2.5 week steady rise in the PNA, culminating in a total d(index) of nearly +3 SDs, and this is all we really have to show for it. We did something similar to this PNA modality back in the run up to the October 2011 event, and ended up with a historic snow storm before Halloween. Nevertheless... I have 1.5" of crud and/or dust for that journey around this typically snowy part of N-central Mass, 1.5 months later relative to time of year. The real troubling aspect is not the snow ... We saw the big bucket totals. But that we witnessed a minimum of 3 complete -EPO cycles amid the favorable domain region, with a robust -NAO interim, and will finish the month above normal at SNE's 4 majors. f---ed I was musing to self that perhaps this recent 'hemispheric event' ( which it really was regardless of myopic snow requirement which really means nothing to that veracious assessment), was so powerful that it in a way 'made up' for it all. But to do that in one dose meant too much power - again, symbolically. I would have taken half this beast and pared it out under the -NAO block we had last week, and we'd 'ave done just fine. But we get this 'red spot' on Earth thing so anomalous is violates wave spacing climatology. Impressive. You "muse to self alot "....I maybe taking new clients soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 2 hours ago, dendrite said: GFS says to start the lawn thread on Jan 1. I bet we don't get past the 4th before we bury a big oh +PP 400 mile N of Prescott 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Over half a winter wasted before we even have a chance of it cold enough to snow. That’s assuming the pattern changes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over half a winter wasted before we even have a chance of it cold enough to snow. That’s assuming the pattern changes It's over. No winter this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: So what are you actually saying Tip….???? Lol. Hard to parlay all of that into normal English. I’ve had a few adult beverages already…so maybe that’s part of it? Merry Xmas all! In the “can” posting boys….you all know the deal. Translation: Better luck next winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over half a winter wasted before we even have a chance of it cold enough to snow. That’s assuming the pattern changes What’s behind you is the past. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Definitely the winter of the haves and have nots. Ask people in Buffalo if this winters a bust. Or anyone above 1,000’. And now throw in the Vineyard. I was lucky enough to experience hours of SN+++ last Friday in SVT and waist deep powder Saturday morning. So it’s all about perspective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Over half a winter wasted before we even have a chance of it cold enough to snow. That’s assuming the pattern changes It's over. 59 minutes ago, weathafella said: What’s behind you is the past. In 2+ weeks the past will be just like today's present. This same scene will persist well into winters future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: It's over. In 2+ weeks the past will be just like today's present. This same scene will persist well into winters future. In that case the future becomes the pasture.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Paging George, paging George, please dial up a thread for this. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 5 hours ago, qg_omega said: This doesn’t say anything about how warm it will be, just that Jan will likely be above normal. There is a huge difference between say +2 and +8, we could easily still get a snowy January at +2-3, but +6 or more won’t work. Considering that the first week of Jan is expected to be a blowtorch the probability of the month finishing warmer than average being this high makes sense. It will be very difficult to wipe out a +15 first week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Paging George, paging George, please dial up a thread for this. Gotta get the Navy on board first 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 One good aspect about the pattern ahead is that theses models are bringing several chances for hefty QPF into California. It’s not likely to offset 30 years of desiccation … but for a region that may not be able to sustain population within mere decades anything helps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Looks like things change after the first week or so. NNE may squeeze something in prior to that. Seems on track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like things change after the first week or so. NNE may squeeze something in prior to that. Seems on track. Yeah starting to slowly get better looks on the ensembles near the end. But we’re gonna have an ugly 7-10 days before that between 12/28-1/6 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 embrace the torch folks, yearn for snowier days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Looks like things change after the first week or so. NNE may squeeze something in prior to that. Seems on track. 1/6? Fake snow to start the week and maybe we can do 30s and showers as opposed to a washout next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 12 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Paging George, paging George, please dial up a thread for this. Dial up, Great idea! By the time the post is uploaded... it would be a 3 day threat instead of 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 just like how a good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow, a bad pattern doesn’t guarantee no snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 1 hour ago, George001 said: just like how a good pattern doesn’t guarantee snow, a bad pattern doesn’t guarantee no snow. Very true. It goes both ways. We’ve scored in shit patterns before. But if things change after the first week…I’m good with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 25, 2022 Share Posted December 25, 2022 Definitely seeing some light at end of tunnel. All you can ask for at this point. There’s a few hits in the Jan 6-8 range for NNE on GEFS. One East Coast HECS on GEFS and a few hits mixed in on the CMC ensembles. Not bad Going to have to time shortwaves well. (More important down here in Philly), but need one wave to lay down some cold and have another timer and spaced properly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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