January 2023 Obs/Discussion

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam manages to wedge down into NE MA Wednesday. May have to take down those high temps

We wedge right into the fifth, Nice overunner on the 12z Nam too.

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nope but nice try, I've never owned a pair of flip flops or sandals...

Bare foot in the frozen grass. I can picture you at the beach pool with sneakers white socks, can't tell where your white socks end and your legs begin.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Bare foot in the frozen grass. I can picture you at the beach pool with sneakers white socks, can't tell where your white socks end and your legs begin.

seems like you have plenty of experience with that..

[CoastalWx]

Party over on the nam.

[dendrite]

Today will be my warmest of the week. 

[CoastalWx]

Hey snow for the ski areas lol.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Party over on the nam.

Interesting look at the end with all that energy still west. Gonna have to watching for icing over interior too prior to that. Has the freezing drizzle look for like 24-36 hours after Thursday morning. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Interesting look at the end with all that energy still west. Gonna have to watching for icing over interior too prior to that. Has the freezing drizzle look for like 24-36 hours after Thursday morning. 

I saw. Hopefully more ageo flow from the north to cool it off a bit here, but yeah an interesting look. 

[#NoPoles]

Not going to say it hasn't "torched" up here...but it didn't turn out as bad as I thought. By all means, it was not good. I just thought even up here the temps were going to be higher. I think we had 1 day in the 50s. Lots of 40s and 30s and even a dusting of snow overnight. The rain sucked, and overnight lows staying above freezing- I guess those were the two worst take-aways

[HIPPYVALLEY]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Party over on the nam.

But the guests haven’t even arrived yet.

[RDRY]

20 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We roast, severe lack of cold on a global scale.  The one artic blast effectively rid the planet of real cold

 

"unlike anything in European history."

Is this satire?

[Snowcrazed71]

22 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

We roast, severe lack of cold on a global scale.  The one artic blast effectively rid the planet of real cold

 

Hey guys, I just want to point out our number One instigator. Since we're going to throw digs at everyone and this is the type of form we're on, let's hear how you all feel about this guy. :-)

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey guys, I just want to point out our number One instigator. Since we're going to throw digs at everyone and this is the type of form we're on, let's hear how you all feel about this guy. :-)

That was (for him) an acceptable post.  Not that it was New England centered. 

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

seems like you have plenty of experience with that..

I was born with a tan 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Hey guys, I just want to point out our number One instigator. Since we're going to throw digs at everyone and this is the type of form we're on, let's hear how you all feel about this guy. :-)

I have no issue(s) with someone posting dissenting points of view. 

[CoastalWx]

Man the 3K NAM is a huge bust for warmth lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I miss the winters of consistently cold brutal air.

La Nina can suck an egg

That loss is not just La Nina ...

I realize you're just being sort of tongue-in-cheek frustrated.  As winter enthusiasts, it's hard to be completely disconnected that way.  We're human beings. Lol.  Still, I keep seeing these subtle aspects in the daily synoptic monitoring, that seem out of sorts comparing the 1950 to 2010 model ( and actually, ...some of those idiosyncrasies started in the last 1990s).  Meanwhile, we have to rely upon trapping mantras, to oft used as divisive sowers of denial, like 'too small of a sample size' and shit that'll get us all climate whacked....   

I keep reading para phrased articles at Phys.org. There more so now attribution findings, as opposed to general theory.  I guess attribution sells, but that might be a good thing, actually.

Furthering op ed: See, (..oh god hopefully I can keep this brief ) human beings will politely respond to any threat they cannot see, hear, touch, smell, or taste.  Global warming, considering the previous hundred years of slow logarithmic rise, really did not appeal to these "USB ports" that connect human beings to reality.  It had no such advocate.

That's changing now... ?  One could certainly 'feel' a Synergistic Heatwave, and see body counts therein. There's also measured increases in global rain rates and event totals. You get into HC expansion... ENSO decoupling.  Circulation folding during transition seasons... etc.  There are observable traits, increasingly evincing and mathematically connectable.   

But you see now how that works?  Now, GW DOES appeal to either sight, sound, touch, smell or taste ... Polite acknowledgement turns to (at least) the rudiments of action.   All of Humanity has stood upon a proverbial train track to the future while the train of CC has been coming all along, arguing about style of shoes walking these engagement, but they don't move off the tracks until they actually feel the iron begin to whir beneath their feet.

 

[NorEastermass128]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the 3K NAM is a huge bust for warmth lol. 

Sweet. Looking forward to my 30s and rain now. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Sweet. Looking forward to my 30s and rain now. 

I know, not only is it bare ground and no great snow prospects but we don’t even get any nice days out of it.

I know some of you had some nice weather last week but the valley has been dreadful. Just warm enough to wreck the pond ice too. 
 

[Typhoon Tip]

The ice potential was there all along.   There's not a lot of appeal in the discussion/conjecture for minoring ice/mix, understood.  But the GGEM notion of an impressive tuck cold surge should really be built in/assumed in our climo for arriving 1035 polar highs N of Maine. 

The last 4 cycles of that guidance has trended 300 miles S with the leading warm frontal arm, starting near N VT/NH and ending up in N NJ latitudes.  That model has a boundary layer warm bias that I've noticed in the mid range, too.  Just a-priori synoptic foreknowledge, argues correcting ice into discussion. Down perhaps to the Pike given that GGEM look, by dawn on Thurs.

I think the other models start to catch onto this typical BL error handling for these synoptic players/scenarios.   Not sure why GGEM sees that first, but it does ( unfortunately for the court of public opinion), better fit climatology.  

Nothing major... But perhaps a moral victory.   Someone also mentioned...  this event's profile is emerged as more of two.. There is a primary to N IN with (failing) warm front extending E..  That boundary probably doesn't get through NYC's latitude and collapses S...  Moderate cold liquid QPF ongoing starts pinging and glazing as it's ending.  That's a GGEM.. .We lull, then there's a burst of steady light snow possibility Friday as the residual U/A features then to smear out underneath.  

This is all minoring stuff, but we've found ourselves in a dearth so it has it's morality value.

[wkd]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Stop looking at the ensembles past 300 hours

I'm trying not to look at anything past 200 hours. 

Forget it.  You know this is an addiction.  You'll look.

[dryslot]

12z GFS will save you.

[CoastalWx]

Nice advisory snows over much of the area.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS will save you.

Saved me 

[wkd]

I forget the year (within the last 10 but Will would know), but all of the 'forget this winter' posts were coming fast and furious.  I know this is part of the humor in this subforum which makes it so much fun reading, but I also remember you got buried in February which for my area is usually the snowiest.  You all have the best winter subforum; keep it up.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

That was (for him) an acceptable post.  Not that it was New England centered. 

I know. This Particular post from him was not.. But in general he is an instigator. I'll just let it go.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Canadian like 70 in Philly mid wed am. Low 60’s Southern CT 

3k nam much colder Tuesday nite / wed am by a good 15 degrees 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Canadian like 70 in Philly mid wed am. Low 60’s Southern CT 

3k nam much colder Tuesday nite / wed am by a good 15 degrees 

 

This has model bust on leading frontal position, underscored and "!" big time. 

I suspect the higher res/meso, resolved BL solution types will begin to "see" that.  The GGEM sees it already - which is interesting...

Climate is changing ( lol )... but I don't believe that is too far gone to start assuming New England's unique ability to suck boundaries back S-/SW east of the App chain for/whence +PP building across N Maine ... is a pridefully owned attribute that is suddenly preventative. 

[alex]

Today is a perfect example of why people shouldn’t stress out too much about ski conditions in bad patterns - as long as the resort has good grooming. You’d think it’d be as bad as it gets with the weather we had and last nights freeze, but it’s actually very enjoyable. Fast, loose granular with good grip. It helps that there are no crowds. 
 

Of course, good grooming is key. I went to Jiminy Peak last year when the weather was pretty decent and the conditions were atrocious. A ski patrol told me “this is New England - it’s how it’s supposed to be.” Yeah, not so much. Just gotta ski the right places!

[powderfreak]

11 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I agree with you on not liking sub optimal ski conditions. Especially when you don’t get out on too many ski vacations. However, I will say that, an “OK day” outside, especially on a mountain, is better than almost any day inside.  I think that’s what PF was alluding to. 

Here’s the thing with New England skiing… maybe 10% of the days are truly crap conditions and terrible.  Like the day after it rains and now it’s 6F outside.  That’s crap.  Even three days after that it’s much better with more grooming.

There are 10% of days where it’s truly awesome and great skiing that is memorable.

Then there’s 80% of the bell curve that’s just “New England skiing.”  It can be good on some trails, horrific on others, it’s a mix of snow and ice, etc.  It’s variable.  It changes wildly throughout the day.  it changes depending on the lift you’re riding.  Great at open, terrible at closing.  You can usually find some good trails, and you can find some bad ones.

Thats New England.