Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 The GGEM was in fact significantly improved over the previous run cycles, wrt the general 500 mb centering on 00z Friday... Toggling shows a 2-cycle cyclonic rotation around an Ohio axis, and that's the 2ndary/emergent correction vector telling where the future guidance at least has a chance to move. I'd call this run almost as important as a direct strike solution, for the value of that trend alone. Also, we're talking about at most a moderate event - still want to be clear. At least for my contribution to analytic conjecture. It could evolve more? sure. Again again again...emphasize the relay off the Pacific ocean of wind mechanics, doing so along an impressively straight zonal delivery - not necessarily the best performing circumstance for models. Plus... there's also just all kinds of stream interplay and that can cause 'fractal' results/high complexity. But likewise and to be fair, it could smear again. I don't think it will... but we'll see. For SNE, this is the best 'looking' set up for D5 we've seen this season, for at least getting snow in the air... crazy 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I cited back in November that it would be an up and in look for December, but I just didn't expect next to nothing within 50mi of the coast. @STILL N OF PIKEDifference is that I attributed it more to general RNA, as opposed to ridge positioning once the PNA built in. I didn't think that that major low would end up screwing us as horribly as it did in the longer term. I was very happy with my medium and short range effort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Close though. Seems like it invests a little too much in the lead wave. But even that one looks icy over interior SNE N of pike and snowy for CNE/NNE It's got the 32F 2 meter isotherm down to ORH, with 29 at ASH centered on 12z Thursday... Rain Nope...sorry. Too much high pressure N, and a hydroscopic sink already in CNE with low pressure just S of LI. Typical GGEM way too warm boundary layer BS The GGEM sort of reminds me of a warmer version of the 30 hour pancake wave event back in 2015. It was like an weak wave/overrunning hybrid, with terrific snow growth for a full day of constancy. Just dream worthy for winter enthusiasts... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Uncle on a bender again at 12z I'll buy him a couple cases of champagne if he's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GGEM was in fact significantly improved over the previous run cycles, wrt the general 500 mb centering on 00z Friday... Toggling shows a 2-cycle cyclonic rotation around an Ohio axis, and that's the 2ndary/emergent correction vector telling where the future guidance at least has a chance to move. I'd call this run almost as important as a direct strike solution, for the value of that trend alone. Also, we're talking about at most a moderate event - still want to be clear. At least for my contribution to analytic conjecture. It could evolve more? sure. Again again again...emphasize the relay off the Pacific ocean of wind mechanics, doing so along an impressively straight zonal delivery - not necessarily the best performing circumstance for models. Plus... there's also just all kinds of stream interplay and that can cause 'fractal' results/high complexity. But likewise and to be fair, it could smear again. I don't think it will... but we'll see. For SNE, this is the best 'looking' set up for D5 we've seen this season, for at least getting snow in the air... crazy It’s good that pretty much all guidance has been trending toward that lagging wave. Whether or not it ultimately succeeds is obviously still up in the air but we’re getting a mix of some actual hits and close calls on the guidance which is fine for 5 days out on a system that isn’t even occurring in a favorable larger scale pattern. We’re trying to “steal” this event before things look more favorable toward mid-month. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s good that pretty much all guidance has been trending toward that lagging wave. Whether or not it ultimately succeeds is obviously still up in the air but we’re getting a mix of some actual hits and close calls on the guidance which is fine for 5 days out on a system that isn’t even occurring in a favorable larger scale pattern. We’re trying to “steal” this event before things look more favorable toward mid-month. I refer to these a 'sub-index' events. They do exist and occur, but the d(index) may offer limited or no suggestion. This one is a signal that was entirely 1/2 to 2/3rds GEF members playing hot potato with... taking turns. Meanwhile, as you say... there is suggestion for a more systemically realized +PNA/-AO afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 I would recommend not looking at the end of the 12Z Geps today. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, roardog said: I would recommend not looking at the end of the 12Z Geps today. lol Good advice anyday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 EC interesting for NNE Wed night into Thu. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 A little tucky action on Thursday for eastern sections. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 My New Year’s resolution is to not track snow threats until they are 3 days out or less: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: My New Year’s resolution is to not track snow threats until they are 3 days out or less: Then you could have hibernated for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: A little tucky action on Thursday for eastern sections. Needs a little more work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Almost a complete loss of pack. Crazy for Jan 1 at 1900’ in northern Vermont. At least it’s snowing.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Melting away at SRSent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: Needs a little more work. Fri into Sat, yeah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: My New Year’s resolution is to not track snow threats until they are 3 days out or less: In Soviet Russia storms track you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Euro has no semblance of much on the 6’th I would get outside today if you can 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Euro has no semblance of much on the 6’th The extended looks like shiat. Nice chinook straight to Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Just now, dendrite said: The extended looks like shiat. Nice chinook straight to Hudson Bay. I’m wondering if any break in the -pna is transient as I’m not sure the tropical forcing is indicating any real shift that is more than transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Melting away at SR Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Puke. given my luck, I’m seriously going to regret keeping that trip. Tickets for the mountain already bought too, no refund. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: The extended looks like shiat. Nice chinook straight to Hudson Bay. I’m all for keeping this weather at this point. Im all set with 10 degrees and dry cracked ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Puke. given my luck, I’m seriously going to regret keeping that trip. Tickets for the mountain already bought too, no refund. I think you will be ok, as the weather should be good for man made snow after Thursday for a bit , just don’t want a screaming SE’er right around your arrival 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 Hopefully EPS looks nothing like op . If so, another loss for GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hopefully EPS looks nothing like op . If so, another loss for GEFS The EPS has trended toward the GEFS though the last two runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: The EPS has trended toward the GEFS though the last two runs. And if they go towards op GEFS loses again . We’ll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m all for keeping this weather at this point. Im all set with 10 degrees and dry cracked ground. My current temperature of 44° is my high for the week so far. Upper Valley not only doesn’t have winter but we can’t even get the temperatures to spike. It’s been cloudy for days here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: My current temperature of 44° is my high for the week so far. Upper Valley not only doesn’t have winter but we can’t even get the temperatures to spike. It’s been cloudy for days here. Come here, mid/upper 50s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 My gut instinct is good luck getting out of this -PNA Nina regime for More then a little bit . Hopefully we still score regardless as peak climo is here shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 1, 2023 Share Posted January 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: And if they go towards op GEFS loses again . We’ll see How does it lose? Nothing has verified yet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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